The government has been rightly criticised
Nawaz Sharif is keen to initiate talks with India. He genuinely believes that Pakistan’s economic progress is not possible unless there is peace in South Asia. Being a businessman he also knows that Pak-India trade would be beneficial for both countries. During his interaction with the US and Chinese leadership he has realised that both support peace in the region and that China favours keeping more intractable disputes with India on the back burner so that Pakistan can improve its economic standing in a peaceful environment.
What is unusual however is that before proceeding to Ufa Pakistan did not properly plan its strategy while the Indian side came fully prepared.
According to Indian sources the idea of starting the negotiations with National Security Authority (NSA) level talks was launched by Nawaz Sharif himself when he met Narendra Modi after the latter’s swearing in ceremony. The Indian side, however, did not favour the top-down approach in handling crucial issues. It supported instead a bottom-up approach. Month later India concluded that the NSA level talks in fact better suited its purpose.
Failure by India to respond to Sharif’s overtures had caused discouragement in Islamabad. Not a month passed without firing incidents on the Pak-India border. Indian leaders like Manohar Parrikar and Rajnath Singh continued to issue hostile statements. By the end of May relations between the neighbours were at their lowest ebb. When Pakistan publicly accused India of aiding and abetting terrorism on its soil, mutual rancour increased further. As Pakistan’s High Commissioner in New Delhi called on Nawaz Sharif on June 3, the report he presented about the state of the two countries’ relations was dismal.
The phone call took the FO by surprise as it had concluded that no thaw in relations was to be expected any time soon
Modi’s telephone call on June 16 was a happy surprise for Sharif. During the eight minute call Modi expressed hope to meet in days to come. As both leaders were scheduled to attend the SCO moot, it was understood that the meeting could take place in Ufa.
Indian Defence Minister Parrikar was given a shut up call by Modi on June 21. Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh also suddenly changed his tune.
The phone call took the FO by surprise as it had concluded that no thaw in relations was to be expected any time soon.
The Indian side meanwhile started preparations for the Ufa talks. It suited India to take up security related issues which were its prime concern. India had been demanding the trial of the Mumbai masterminds over the last seven years. Pakistan, on the other hand, had shown little seriousness in prosecuting Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi. The Ufa meeting provided India an opportunity to press the matter. It was felt in New Delhi that a dialogue between the NSAs on counter-terrorism would address its concerns in an effective manner. By bringing back the Mumbai attacks under focus it could put Pakistan on the defensive.
According to Indian sources the Indian side put up the proposal for a meeting between the two prime ministers through Indian High Commissioner Raghavan who approached Pakistan’s foreign ministry on July 3. Raghavan also kept his channels open with Pakistan’s NSA Sartaj Aziz. Meanwhile Indian Foreign Secretary Jaishankar remained in touch with Pakistan’s High Commissioner in New Delhi Abdul Basit while the latter remained in touch with NSA Ajit Doval.
The Indian side conveyed that Lakhvi was a thorny issue, and the fact that he was “out on bail” made it difficult for the Indian political leadership to engage Pakistan. Since ceasefire violations had been plaguing ties, it was also felt that they should hold a meeting between the two DGMOs which had been pending for more than a year.
As Basit stressed the need to include talks on Kashmir in the NSAs meeting he was told that Kashmir came under the external affairs ministry and not the NASAs.
In Sharif’s keenness to hold the dialogue, the Kashmir issue was set aside. To ensure that there was no glitch to vitiate the atmosphere Pakistan High Commissioner postponed the annual dinner for notables of the Muslim community already fixed for July 4 where Hurriyat leaders were also invited. Basit told invitees on June 25 that the Iftar was postponed on account of deaths in Karachi. The Kashmiris didn’t know that the postponement was in fact part of the preparations for the meeting between the two prime ministers.
It appears that Sharif was so keen to set the ball rolling that he did not care much for going into the nitty gritty of the talks; nor did he consider the repercussions of failing to mention Pakistan’s key concerns in the joint statement. Not that the prime minister did not have time. In fact he spent three precious days in Norway before proceeding to Ufa.
Indian Defence Minister Parrikar was given a shut up call by Modi on June 21. Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh also suddenly changed his tune
Sartaj Aziz maintains that the meeting between Sharif and Modi was not the formal start of any dialogue process. What was the need then for a joint press conference? None of the issues that Pakistan has been consistently raising in meetings with the Indian side like Kashmir, Siachen, Wullar Barrage, Tulbul Navigation Project and Sir Creek found any mention in the joint press briefing. Nor did the charges regarding India’s involvement in terrorism in Pakistan. If these issues were not to be mentioned, what was the need then to include in it the Indian demand ‘to discuss ways and means to expedite the Mumbai case trial, including additional information like providing voice samples.’
There is only one answer. The Indian side pressed the demand that it considered important and got it included in the joint statement. Nawaz Sharif and his two member team either did not put up any of the demands considered vital by Pakistan or did not press for their inclusion.
The way the meeting between the two NSAs was agreed upon also reveals lack of thinking. The Indian security advisor is a professional with intelligence background with the rank of a cabinet secretary. The Pakistani security advisor has no experience of security management but holds the rank of a cabinet minister. This is both a mismatch and in the case of Sartaj Aziz a comedown.
The government has been rightly criticised for the botch up in Ufa. It has now to face a number of embarrassments also. Lakhvi’s counsel maintains his client is unwilling to provide voice samples and there is no law under which he can be forced to comply with the demand. The Hurriyat leaders have discovered the true reason behind the postponement of Basit’s Iftar dinner. Syed Ali Geelani has refused to attend the Eid Milan party organised by Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi on July 21. “As the two prime ministers ignored the fate of over 10 million people of Jammu and Kashmir in their meeting, we reject being a part of any of their [Pakistan’s] celebration,” Geelani declared.
This is what happens if national leaders proceed to attend important meeting unprepared.