From strategic depth to securing peace
For the first time since 9/11, Pakistan is at the centre of AfPak for the right reasons. The Murree talks have been a success. The US and China took part, and the principal parties agreed to continue talking.
Things were far more unsettling till very recently. Taliban distanced themselves from recent talks in China, which Pakistan took the credit of ‘secretly’ facilitating. And the attack on the Afghan parliament almost rolled back President Ghani’s advances towards Pakistan.
The new government has faced intense pressure because of its outreach to Islamabad. Ghani clearly counted on Pakistan’s leverage to bring the Taliban to talk. A clear understanding with Gen Raheel – which led to the ISI-NDS agreement – must have been reassuring. Gen Raheel commands far more influence over the ISI than President Ghani does over NDS, so the arrangement seemed more in Kabul’s favour.
But with pressure mounting and Pakistan ‘not doing enough’, Ghani was forced to complain in writing. His position was made worse by Taliban advances on ground, especially around Helmand.
“The talks have not only relieved pressure on Ghani but also opened avenues for genuine peace”, said Raoof Hasan, prominent political analyst and chief executive of the Regional Peace Institute, and Islamabad-based think tank.
Things were far more unsettling till very recently. Taliban distanced themselves from recent talks in China, which Pakistan took the credit of ‘secretly’ facilitating. And the attack on the Afghan parliament almost rolled back President Ghani’s advances towards Pakistan
Opposition groups still toeing the anti-Pakistan Karzai line, as well as the Abdullah Abdullah faction of the government coalition, had so far demanded talks without Pakistan.
‘Optics are good’
“Eventually they realised that the talks made no headway without Pakistan”, said a security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“After Murree things are different. Now everybody is ready to sit and talk. The optics are good”.
The Islamabad-Kabul equation had been steadily improving since Zarb-e-Azb took off last year. Finally the principal stakeholders were convinced of Pakistan’s sincerity to the regional war effort.
But progress was slow till the Chinese stepped in.
“China’s role cannot be understated”, added Raoof Hasan. “They promoted Pakistan’s role as the main facilitators of these talks”.
The Americans are also supportive of China’s role.
“And since Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the Taliban are all ready to talk, divergent forces will have no option but to reconcile”, added Raoof.
China is also concerned about its CPEC Corridor project, which requires a peaceful Pakistan; hence an increased interest in seeing the fighting end as soon as possible.
But now that Pakistan has finally delivered on its part of the bargain the spotlight will quickly move back to Afghanistan. Ghani has been in office for only a few months, and the Karzai doctrine became deeply entrenched in Afghan politics over the last 12-13 years. It is not immediately clear how much leverage Ghani really has to dismantle the old guard.
Good omen
“The important thing is that the Pakistani military is the leading force behind this push”, Raoof pointed out. And after Murree, much of Abdullah Abdullah’s reservations should have been addressed, which is a “good omen”.
‘Once talks progress, discussing terms and conditions of a power-sharing deal, the Taliban’s entry into government – whether by changing the constitution or loya jirga or fresh elections – the fighting will probably begin to draw down’
In hindsight, Ghani seemed to have played his cards right. It is now for the ‘facilitators’ to make sure the Taliban keep talking.
“Ghani was forced to protest because of internal pressure” said the security official. “If he really had any reservations, he would have expressed them in his meetings with Gen Raheel, which he did not”.
The establishment admits long years of bad blood between Kabul and Islamabad. But officials also point out how moments like Murree can be pivotal in such partnerships.
“With the US and China also contributing positively, we are in a better position than at any point in the war”, he added. “On the face of it, at least, things are moving in the right direction”.
Meanwhile the fighting rages on. The Taliban have not had a more successful start to the fighting season – when winter snow melts with the arrival of spring – since the war began. And tougher fighting is expected as the next round of talks, scheduled for August, draws closer.
“It’s only when something concrete is on the table that the fighting will begin to de-escalate”, said Ahmed Rashid, senior political commentator and author of numerous books on AfPak and the Taliban.
“Once talks progress, discussing terms and conditions of a power-sharing deal, the Taliban’s entry into government – whether by changing the constitution or loya jirga or fresh elections – the fighting will probably begin to draw down”.
So far, there is a clear tilt in Kabul in favour of finishing the war through talks. The Taliban, too, are weary of the long fight and are seen increasingly moving towards a settlement. Pakistan, finally, is in everybody’s good books by influencing the Taliban. It clearly took some convincing on part of the army to end the reluctance of some factions of the Taliban; a marked departure from the ‘strategic depth’ hangover. And the US and China are making sure everybody is playing their part. All that is needed, for now, is for the goodwill to last until August, at least.
