Who is in charge here?
The system of governance prevailing currently can be described as a joint civilian-military rule with the balance tilting in army’s favour. Major decisions are either been taken by the establishment or by the government after a nod from the establishment. As the prime minister is still the formal chief executive, the set up gives the look of civilian rule. The prime minister however is gradually turning into another Queen of Great Britain.
After trying to improve relations with India and declaring the enemies of Afghanistan to be the enemies of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif is now on the back foot. Pakistan’s relations with India and Afghanistan have reverted to where these have been over the decades. Soon after the Nawaz-Modi talks border incidents increased, taking a toll on the lives of civilians and soldiers from both sides. As Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi was released by a court on account of a weak case prepared against him, Pakistan-India relations further deteriorated.
With promises made by the highest military quarters to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table remaining unfulfilled and terrorist attacks increasing in Afghanistan, the relations between the two countries are once again marked by hostility. A recent border clash between troops has added to the bitterness. With lack of trust again characterising bilateral relations more clashes cannot be ruled out.
Gen Musharraf’s trial caused some discomfort to the former dictator. This brought forth a statement from the COAS to the effect that the army will preserve its dignity and institutional pride at all costs. Musharraf was then shifted to Karachi where he has been allowed to continue his political machinations.
With promises made by the highest military quarters to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table remaining unfulfilled and terrorist attacks increasing in Afghanistan, the relations between the two countries are once again marked by hostility
After the policy of talks with the TTP was rightly discarded by the army, Ch Nisar who had grieved over the death of Hakimullah Mehsud immediately made a U-turn and announced unreserved support for Operation Zarb-e-Azb with the same enthusiasm as he had shown for talks with the terrorists. Once a strong opponent of the drone attacks, Nisar simply looked the other way as attacks continued to take place.
Nisar was also a staunch opponent of US policies. Months after the PML-N came to power, he took to task Sartaj Aziz for believing in Washington’s promises which Nisar maintained were as false as tales in the Arabian Nights. He had gone on to maintain that “The United States does not want peace in Pakistan. Then how can we consider the US our friend. As the interior minister, I never trusted US assurances… Now, time has come when we’ll have to choose between dollars and honour.”
A more worldly-wise finance minister, however, continued to seek US aid and support in getting the IMF loan as among other things these were needed to pay for the ongoing operation in North Waziristan. Within months the highly principled Ch Nisar managed to overcome his qualms of conscience and acquiesced in the new policy of reliance on the US. It would be hard for the establishment to find a more pliable interior minister.
The PML-N went the whole hog with the army when it demanded setting up of the military courts. Nawaz Sharif persuaded Zardari also, who overrode strong opposition from his party to support the move. Like Nisar, Nawaz Sharif too has turned out to be pliable.
Here are some of the examples of the Prime Minister’s obedience.
Left to himself Nawaz Sharif would have continued to hobnob with the MQM. The PML-N in fact never hesitated to approach the MQM whenever Altaf Hussain’s support was needed. A PML-N delegation led by Ishaq Dar and including Mamnoon Hussain and Pervez Rashid had made a pilgrimage of Nine-Zero to seek MQM’s support for PML-N’s presidential nominee in July 2013. The PML-N again sought MQM’s help during the Senate elections.
However, once the army leadership decided, for reasons known to itself, to reinitiate its now-on, now- off operation against the MQM, Nawaz Sharif carried out all the directives. He had no objection to the Rangers conducting operation against the MQM. Despite Owen Bennett-Jones having based his story entirely on an ‘authoritative Pakistan source’ in Pakistan the interior ministry immediately contacted Britain to seek proof of MQM’s alleged relations with RAW from the London police.
The army has concluded that urban terrorism is being funded through billions generated by land grabbing and corruption. Also that the PPP leadership in Sindh is deeply involved in the crimes. It decided to use the Rangers to arrest and interrogate Sindh government officials. As the Sindh administration was authorised to withdraw policing powers given to the force, the PML-N government readily agreed to empower the FIA also to detain the suspects for three months.
Whenever in the past the army has been asked to carry out tasks that lay under the jurisdiction of the civilian government, it has led to the emergence of Bonapartist tendencies in the institution
Nawaz immediately rang up COAS who was abroad to assure full support soon after Zardari’s harangue against the army leadership. The idea was to assure the army that the prime minister stood by its side. .
The army leadership is in a position to get anything they want done through a pliant Nawaz Sharif. There are however straws in the air which indicate that the present arrangement might be drastically altered.
The army has succeeded in getting North Waziristan and Khyber Agencies vacated from the terrorists, which is no ordinary achievement. There is a big decline in terrorist incidents inside the country. This has brought well deserved accolade to the army at home and abroad.
Operation Zarb-e Azb has, meanwhile, also led to increase the army’s role in the country. This is partly because of the requirements of the operation and partly due to a tendency in the PML-N leadership to yield the civilian government’s turf to other institutions on account of the government’s incompetence. During its earlier tenures the PML-N had sought the army’s help in investigating ghost schools and recovering power bills. Of late it has sought the army’s cooperation in holding elections.
Whenever in the past the army has been asked to carry out tasks that lay under the jurisdiction of the civilian government, it has led to the emergence of Bonapartist tendencies in the institution. If the army has to do the dirty job why shouldn’t it also to assume political power and enjoy the perks and privileges that come with it?
The Bonapartist tendency in the past was strengthened by the opposition parties who hobnobbed with the army. Desperate on account of political persecution and having lost hope of ever coming to power because of the supineness of the Election Commission, these parties encouraged the army to take over. With things changing for the better, and a peaceful transfer of power taking place for the first time, the tendency in the political parties to support an army coups has weakened though not fully disappeared as shown by the recent pronouncements from PAT chef Tahirul Qadri.
A section of the media is currently involved in rubbishing political parties and discrediting democracy. Comparisons between the government leadership and the army command are being made which favour the latter. Calls are being made to conduct an opinion survey to measure and compare the popularity of the PM with that of the COAS. By exposing the corruption and incompetence of the political parties and blowing it out of proportion some of the columnists and anchor persons have suggested to the army to take over.
One wonders if all this is spontaneous or well-orchestrated.
