Did the army step up because of civilian failures?
If Pakistan’s history had anything to say about it, it would tell everyone that the current army is quite possibly the smartest the country has ever had.
While some believe that the current democratic system is nestled comfortably into the lap of a soft coup, others warn that a hard coup may well be on its way.
Under the current Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Raheel Sharif, many important portfolios, including foreign policy and national security, have allegedly already been inducted under the military umbrella. While it has little involvement on the frontlines of the stage that makes up Pakistan’s political drama, some wonder whether it has been quite the busy bee behind the scenes.
So is there a soft coup that is shaping up Pakistan’s current democratic rule?
Sheikh Waqas Akram, former Member of the National Assembly and current member of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), believes that the question is too complicated, and the answers depend on who is asking. “First you’ll have to differentiate between a coup and a soft coup. Everyone has their own definition these days. For the more ‘enlightened’ even the Karachi operation is a soft coup,” he said before adding that he did not think a soft coup was in place at the moment.
“People define a coup keeping in mind their own sensitive nature, so no, I don’t see it like that,” he added.
Retired lieutenant general, former federal secretary and current security analyst Talat Masood places an emphasis on definitions too. “Well you can define a coup in many ways, but the fact is that the army has — because of the poor performance of the civilian government — expanded its activities in many areas where the civilians should have been functional. The army has taken over that space because of the inefficiencies of the Sindh government,” he said.
“This is particularly true in the case of Sindh and Karachi. What we’re seeing today is that the military has expanded its influence in terms of governance, security — even if the area of security lies primarily with the civilian democratic arrangement,” he added.
Ali Arqam, a journalist and researcher based in Karachi, feels that the army is much too wise to orchestrate a hard coup now. “The army has learned from its past experiences. Direct intervention has many negative repercussions. So, since the Kayani days it has decided to keep the civilian government on the front and rule from behind,” he said.
Arqam thinks the game changed during the Kayani rule, and then stayed that way. “General Raheel and his shenanigans are not by any means different than those of Kayani. I haven’t observed any significant change in civil-military relations,” he asserted.
“General Raheel has to work hard on the external image of the army while Kayani enjoyed good terms with the United States in his first term as he was in the US war academies hall of fame, he had the Swat operation as a major success — a feather in his cap — and was leading the strategic dialogue in the presence of the civilian government,” Arqam said while explaining the differences he had observed between the two rule.
‘The situation is such that there was no other option. The civilian Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) were failures. Despite the presence of the police, the city has remained in shambles’
“What we term a soft coup is always there,” he added.
Bad bad civilian governments
After Zarb-e-Azb, the Karachi operation is the new infant that is being nurtured by the army. As it blooms, the city is supposedly cleared of all that has tainted it for not days, weeks or months, but years.
Did the army step up because of civilian failures? Does it intervene because it has no other choice? Masood seems to think so.
“The crux of this situation is that the space has been filled by the military in order to ensure that the present mission in trying to bring about peace and stability in Karachi and in Sindh continues. I think it’s a part of their policy,” he said.
On the other hand, Akram feels that the army is viewed with undue suspicion. When asked what he felt about the military’s increasing involvement he said, “Hold on, no. The military did not get involved. The politicians and the political government in the centre and in the province are the ones that called it in. the National Action Plan (NAP) was given by the civilian government, and many aspects of it need to be monitored by them as well.”
Military intervention was the only way forward for Karachi according to Akram. “The situation is such that there was no other option. The civilian Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) were failures. Despite the presence of the police, the city has remained in shambles. There was no question of the military being called in because there was no other option — this was the last resort,” he maintained.
While some fear that the army may take one too many liberties Akram feels that the onus lies on the government to keep that in check. “If the military stays in the ambit outlined for it and does its job then what’s the harm? If they go out of said ambit, then as per the law the Sindh chief minister is the man who can talk to them about it,” he said.
Arqam does not put much faith into the civilian leaders either. After the recent fiasco with Zardari at the helm of affairs, many were wondering when the military would pull out the stop sign.
“The myopic approach held by the political class was once again exposed during that episode. The same way it was exposed when the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) wanted to bring the ISI under civilian control, the Kerry Lugar Bill, the 2010 floods, and the diatribe that the civilian government has failed, etc,” he said.
In terms of the current government, Arqam does not skip a beat before highlighting that they too are toeing the line. “Short-sightedness and political expediency have marred their ability to take principal positions,” he added with regret.
Second chance for the Rangers
The Rangers have not been the saving grace that Karachi has been pleading for during the past many years. Their presence has done little to curb violence.
“Let me tell you, the time before when the Rangers were deployed all they were doing was focusing on check points, protocols movements, etc.,” Akram said rubbishing the idea that the Rangers were useless.
“You will remember that General Rehman went to the Supreme Court (SC), a report was issued which outlined all the names of the political and militant parties in the city. He had said back then that if he were given a free hand he would fix the situation. He emphasised that the Rangers had no powers despite being there for so many years. And now that they have that power they are using it properly,” he said while explaining why the Rangers had failed to do much in the past.
Akram feels that the civil society itself is confused and has no idea what it wants. “There is great hypocrisy amongst us. We all know what the MQM is. What all know what PPP does in Lyari. We all know what the people in Binoria town are doing, what the ASWJ is doing,” he said and added: “Despite all this, there is a part of our society who somehow remembers human rights and legal rights out of nowhere. I think that things will get better, this is no other option.”
“Qaim Ali Shah had choices in the last two years. He could have strengthened the police, he could have gotten rid of the corrupt home ministers under him and replace them with proper people, he could have sacrificed his own sleep for the people, and maybe he wouldn’t have had to give up his powers to the army,” Akram said of hard choices.
“But when you’re incompetent then you have to depend on others, and that is what the Sindh government has done and now the other guys are doing whatever they have to do,” he added.
Arqam does not have the same trust in the Rangers that Akram does. He is both for and against the operation.
“The Karachi operation with all its political manoeuvring and tall claims is not by any means different from previous exercises of the same nature. What they are aiming for is a kind of political engineering, which can be achieved only by breaking the MQM down — which is highly expected. Keeping the pressure on the MQM leadership and crippling their ability to inflict violence on a greater scale is their aim,” he said.
“Karachi will be stabilised, and the army will have its own secured constituencies to bring in people of their own choices. But, that being said, principally I cannot support any such exercise which is devoid of any rules and is dirtier with questionable encounters, extrajudicial killings and botched investigations,” he said dismissively.
“All such operations have at the end resulted in further deterioration of civilian law enforcement agencies and judicial process,” he added.
The Rangers have not been the saving grace that Karachi has been pleading for during the past many years. Their presence has done little to curb violence
Masood does not feel that the current operation is the same as efforts made by the Rangers before. “I think this time they are going about somewhat more differently than before. I think here they have a much larger mandate and much greater support from the COAS and resolve from the army command, that is why you find the difference,” he said.
But no military action that thumbs its nose at a democratic system will have lasting impact, Masood warns. “The point is how are you going to sustain is once you’ve cleared the problems?” he asked.
“You need institutional backup. It is not enough for an operation to just flush out the criminals and mafias as a one-time affair… it has to be sustained,” he explained.
Enter civilian government: “For that you need to strengthen the institutions simultaneously. You need to do a lot more. And this is the real dilemma that the country faces right now. This time I hope the military will also make sure that there is this form of strengthening of the institutions,” Masood asserted.
Is a hard coup coming?
“Why? The army doesn’t need one,” Arqam said resolutely.
Masood agrees.
“I don’t’ think so, because that will create another set of problems, which will be very serious. And I don’t think the army is in the mood for more problems right now,” he said.
“The army will content itself on trying to improve things from the sidelines, rather than direct involvement,” he added.
Akram finds the idea highly amusing. “No, no! There’s no hard coup coming,” he laughed.
“I know it has become a cliché that this is not the same army, but this really isn’t the same army!” he exclaimed.
“This ‘general’ is not going to ask for an extension, this ‘general’ doesn’t have any business or relatives sitting with you which will force him to give you any favours, he’s the guy who has big names in his family, the Nishan-e-Haider is there too, he has a real legacy behind him, which he has to defend,” he asserted.
“This is a man who is very well respected in the army, and suddenly he has grown too big in the army, unlike the previous generals. I don’t think that the military under this general wants a martial law,” he added.
This is not the same army, but Pakistan is not the same either, Akram rightfully pointed out.
“The political forces toppled the last general. How much of his writ was left by the end, really. I was part of that government… so I know,” he said.
Akram views the military as the way out. “When people keep talking about an out of the box solution… that solution will be found between a hard and soft coup, where all these organisations and the government of Pakistan will — unwillingly or willingly — try to fix the system in the coming years,” he maintained.
Considering so little information on what goes on behind the scenes is available it is not a particularly easy task to conclude whether army intervention will be good or bad for Pakistan in the end. The only thing we know for certain is that the civilian government and its repeated failures have made what would have been hard choices fairly easy to make for the military.