Surprises from Afghanistan
So much for Sartaj Aziz’s revelation; that Pakistan helped stage a ‘secret’ meeting between Kabul and the Afghan Taliban, that too in the north western Chinese city of Urmuqi. This was novel. Beijing had been trying to play some part for some time now. And this seemed as near ideal as possible given the circumstances. Mohammad Masoom Stanikzai, a key member of Afghanistan’s High Peace Council who has just got President Ghani’s go-ahead for defence minister, allegedly led the Afghan team. The Taliban, in turn, were represented by a number of commanders all housed in Pakistan. Aziz talked of another meeting in a month, and concrete results in three months.
But the Taliban had grimmer revelations. Personal interest or initiative might have led some to travel to Xinjiang, they clarified, but they were definitely not green-lighted by the ‘Emirate’. While the dismissal is likely to have far-reaching repercussions – which will take time playing out – the immediate fallout is no less troubling. It means that of the fight-and-talk tactics, the Taliban have chosen, at least for the time being, to forego talks altogether. That suits them just fine considering how good this year’s Spring Offensive has turned out for them. And more talks in a month and peace in three, too, seems an unlikely bet for the moment.
Studied chronologically, the Taliban’s about-face is not too difficult to understand. They started to become serious about talks just around the time when Karzai was playing hard to get with regard to the Bilateral Security Arrangement (BSA). Finally, they saw eye to eye with the government on a very important matter – return of all foreign troops from Afghanistan. The more that outcome seemed real, the more the Taliban lent towards talks. But now, after President Ghani asked some forces to stay a while longer, it is only natural for the Taliban to turn back on their offer. For those who know them; it will be difficult to really get them to talk so long as the occupying force does not leave lock, stock and barrel. That, of course, puts Pakistan in an awkward position with both Ghani and the Taliban. The former staked his reputation on improved ties with Pakistan. But since Islamabad does not seem to have proper leverage with the Taliban for now, both arrangements – with Kabul and the Taliban – seem under more strain than they can manage. Afghan legislatures and elements in the security apparatus are already pointing fingers at Pakistan for the attack on parliament. And Ghani might fade a bit too soon owing to his alliance with Islamabad. Hopefully all parties, especially the Taliban, will realise that the window for talks is small, and once it shuts there will be only pain and suffering for all concerned.