Afghan lessons
At least the Afghan Taliban have put any doubts about fighting in Ramzan, and another Spring Offensive now that NATO’S combat mission has ended, to rest. The attack on parliament yesterday was one of their most daring to date, even though no lawmakers were injured. Ironically, the hit came just as the House was preparing to swear in the new defence minister – after the position lay vacant for nine months – amid hopes that the new incumbent would be particularly hard on the advancing insurgency. This, of course, comes after the government lost two crucial districts in Kunduz in the north. There are fears now that the province itself might fall, greatly enhancing the militia’s negotiating position.
But isn’t that what the Taliban are also positioning for? There have been credible reports that they want the Qatar office to be reopened. Differences about the flag, etc, might be less of an irritant now that Karzai is gone and Ghani is all for talks. Yet there are also reports, not entirely without credibility, that the Taliban are not exactly being honest. The talk-and-fight strategy might have something to do with an increasing IS footprint in Afghanistan – which led them to come out openly against al Baghdadi’s caliphate recently. And the march on Kunduz, too, makes little sense unless it is part of a wider push.
Analysts believe that once Kunduz diverts government attention, and forces, the Taliban will immediately march on Helmand. As opposed to Tajikistan, which Kunduz borders, Helmand runs parallel to traditional supply routes out of Pakistan. And that, of course, brings Islamabad right back into the picture. Ghani staked his reputation by trusting Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistani military. After Zarb-e-Azb especially, an Afghan-Pak-American alliance seemed natural. Yet there are some, both in Kabul and Washington, who believe Pakistan’s influence over Afghan Taliban has not lessened since the old days. Pakistan, facing an existential fight of its own, can hardly make a clearer case that the old arrangement no longer holds. Yet we only recently agreed to accept Taliban attacks in Afghanistan as acts of terrorism. There is a genuine need to build on the goodwill for all parties concerned. Pakistan must use whatever influence it has over former Taliban forces to rein them in and help the Afghan government. President Ghani must do the same considering his security service’s sway over TTP. Only if both countries help each other can this long and over blown orgy of death and destruction come to an end.