Militant propaganda websites and social media accounts in South Asia are promoting Islamic State (IS) at the expense of al Qaeda, analysts said on Friday, highlighting the rivalry between the two global militant groups.
Disaffected Taliban factions have started to look toward Islamic State, impressed by its rapid capture of territory in Syria and Iraq, though there is no evidence it is providing substantial material support to the Taliban.
The popularity of IS comes at the expense of al Qaeda, whose deep pockets and foreign fighters once readily attracted local commanders. But al Qaeda has been decimated by drone strikes and its traditional influence severely eroded.
“The Taliban and al Qaeda have almost been written out of the picture,” said Omar Hamid, the head of Head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk at IHS. “Most of these sites have converted their content to an Islamic State (IS) platform.”
So far the IS social media campaign has not been matched by material support to South Asian groups such as the Taliban, he said, but it has helped gather dissatisfied splinter groups around Islamic State.
A few Afghan commanders have sworn allegiance to IS, saying they oppose peace talks between the government and Taliban. Others have questioned whether reclusive one-eyed Taliban leader Mullah Omar, who has close ties to al Qaeda, is alive.
In Pakistan, home to a separate but allied Taliban insurgency, the leadership of the Taliban is hotly disputed. Some factions there also swore allegiance to Islamic State, cementing their vow by beheading a soldier and posting the video online.
This week, the Afghan Taliban sent a letter to Islamic State’s leader, urging the group to stop recruiting in Afghanistan.
According to Hamid, only twelve months ago, a majority of social media sites in Urdu or Pashto had around 70% of content related to South Asian militant groups. “It changed to about 95% IS content by September last year.”
Hamid, a former Pakistani counter-terror police officer, analysed dozens of militant Twitter and Facebook profiles and militant propaganda sites.
Pakistan’s government has repeatedly promised to ban militant websites but most remain online. A spokesman for the country’s telecoms authority could not say how many militant websites had been banned.
Islamic State is definitely gaining in popularity at the expense of al Qaeda, said Saifullah Mahsud, head of Islamabad-based think-tank the FATA Research Centre.
“Islamic State is the new poster boy,” he said. “But the ideology has been around a long time.”