Need of a holistic and evidence-based national urban policy
Pakistan is the fastest urbanising country in the region. With almost 1.8 per cent natural growth and equal rural–urban and urban–urban migration, the pressure on cities is mounting. As usually the case in developing countries, most of this burden is on the large or primate cities, of which there are almost nine in Pakistan.
Consider this — 3.5 per cent growth in a country of almost 200 million population; that translates into actual numbers of almost five to seven million new urbanites every year, almost twice the size of Rawalpindi city. Futuristically speaking, in the next 20 years, the urban population is going to more than double. Most of this population is accommodated in the existing city areas, which are becoming dense and adding to the slums and kachi abadis. In fact, the ratio of slums in large cities is increasing and as per studies carried out by the UN Habitat, Pakistan has one of the poorest track records in lump gradation figures. This grim situation calls for an urgent and well-planned action.
Moreover, Pakistan is among the youngest countries in the world, with at least half its population below the age of 30; these demographics are likely to stay for at least the next 25 years.
The 21st century is the era of cities. A considerable part of the GDP from countries is contributed by urban centres, and I quote Jane Jacobs here, “Wealth of the nations is the sum total of the wealth of the cities”
The 21st century is the era of cities. A considerable part of the GDP from countries is contributed by urban centres, and I quote Jane Jacobs here, “Wealth of the nations is the sum total of the wealth of the cities”. According to Mckinsey, the 600 urban centres of the world generate almost 60 per cent of the global GDP and this share is on the rise. Currently this is evoking primarily from the larger cities in the developed world; this is shifting fast towards the developing world and its intermediate cities.
Thus, Pakistan is in dire need of a holistic and evidence-based national urban policy and strategy to harness the dividend of this once-in-a lifetime opportunity. Urbanisation, a transition from the rural to the urban, has different characteristics in the 21st century, compared with that era when Europe and America were undergoing industrialisation. We exist in the era of knowledge-based economies with the services sector overtaking manufacturing in terms of share in the GDP. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey Report, services make up almost 55 per cent of the total share.
These three key statistics are prime determinants for our future policy framework. The framework development process must include a way of predicting, planning and managing this urbanisation in order to convert it into opportunity, rather than a disaster, which it has the potential to become, if allowed a free fall — with slums, ghettoes, unemployment, crime and chaos. If we are able to develop productive urban centres built around the idea of a knowledge-based economy with skilled workforce, offering high quality social services, out cities have immense potential to renovate the developing economy to one that is holistically developed.
Additionally, there is another area that needs change in direction and mindset. While designing the model for new cities, the usual development mantra of ‘FDI and export-led growth’, is the most common advice from policymakers and stakeholders. However, that is not the absolute truth. The demand for FDI is palpable; brain drain is an economic tragedy of the future and may be directly linked. Each year, thousands of students move abroad for higher education with an approximate drainage cost of Rs10 million per student. So how do we retain the crux of our student leadership to acquire local higher education and produce a direct return for Pakistan?
New and restructured service-oriented facilities in the new city would generate increased employment opportunities and subsequent improvement in living standards and a strengthened emerging new middle class
In addition, meeting the demands of the ever-increasing population is a right step forward into the new cities of the future. I need not count the number of people living without water, clothing, medicine, good quality food, education, housing, entertainment, etc. These are all industries that need to be established. While we strive to set up export-oriented industries to meet the nutritional needs of Europe or Middle East, my own people are hungry and undernourished. Can we first focus on meeting the needs of Pakistan?
The nation continues to suffer from health hazards and thus, we need to set up an industrial health zone where pure and affordable medicines could be produced for Pakistan, since most of the available medicine is adulterated. The low quality of healthcare is known to all in Pakistan. Patients are travelling to even India for surgeries and thousands of Pakistani doctors are working abroad. In Peshawar, there are some good hospitals where Afghans are treated and charged in dollars. The availability of good and affordable healthcare is a key priority for all.
Other service industries that can be regarded as cash cows include tourism and hospitality. Direct returns from domestic tourism catering to a population of 200 million, can sustain new facilities and provide people with entertainment opportunities that do not just include the usual dining out at restaurants. These are just a few examples.
New and restructured service-oriented facilities in the new city would generate increased employment opportunities and subsequent improvement in living standards and a strengthened emerging new middle class; there are still 150 million people lacking these basic facilities in my country. My ideas involve strategising at the country level, and milking in-house opportunities, rather than looking outside for foreign investment and interest. A nationalistic, local approach is the need of the hour for future developments in urban centres to become real engines of growth.