President Tayyip Erdogan’s statesmanlike appeals for Turkey’s rival parties to leave egos aside and form a new government may suggest the combative leader has turned over a new leaf, but even those close to him wonder how long it will last.
A masterful tactician who has built a career on playing the political underdog, Erdogan is in a tight corner after the AK Party he founded lost its parliamentary majority on Sunday, thwarting for now his ambition of accumulating greater powers.
Senior AKP officials, from Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu down, have insisted that the party will exhaust efforts to find a junior coalition partner before a new election is considered. But in private, many view a snap poll as Erdogan’s best hope of seeing the party he founded claw back its majority.
“Erdogan is giving soft messages now, and will for a while longer, but we will see whether it continues,” one senior AKP official involved in party strategy told Reuters, asking not to be identified after Davutoglu urged officials not to discuss coalition options with the media.
“Erdogan wants people to see that the option of a coalition won’t work … Efforts to form a stable government will truly be pursued, but I don’t think they can be realised. I believe an early election is first in the list of scenarios right now.”
For many in NATO member Turkey memories will be vivid of the fractious, changing coalitions and clashing personalities of the 1990s. International financial support programmes collapsed, the economy lurched into crisis and the influence of the army was constantly at play.
Financial markets took succour from the conciliatory remarks of Erdogan, better known for blustery rhetoric, that all parties should work quickly to form a new government and that egos must be set aside.
The relief, however, was short-lived, with the lira giving up some gains on Friday.
“A period of weak governance wouldn’t necessarily be bad (for the AKP), especially if they look like ‘the adults in the room’,” said Howard Eissenstat, Turkey expert at St. Lawrence University in New York.
“The economy is likely to head south in the next few months. The AKP can now blame ‘instability’ rather than its own policies for the downturn,” he told Reuters.
Unrest in Turkey’s Kurdish southeast could also play to Erdogan’s favour, allowing him to take a firmer line that could win over some nationalists.
The AKP remains Turkey’s largest party but its support fell to around 41 percent from 49.8 at the last parliamentary election. Votes were lost to the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which entered parliament for the first time, and to the right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
In the event of a re-run, the AKP would likely struggle to win back many Kurdish votes but could hope to regain those who turned to the MHP and now regret the prospect of an unstable coalition. An IPSOS poll shortly after the results were announced suggested the AKP would have had 4 percent more support if voters had known the outcome in advance.
“At the moment, everyone is planning how they can head into an early election with the most advantage,” said Ihsan Aktas, head of polling company GENAR, seen as close to the government.
“At this point, for the AKP, showing a transparent attitude and being respectful towards coalitions will be noticed by voters. It will help their votes,” he told Reuters.
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After parliament is sworn in later this month, Erdogan is expected to formally give the AKP the mandate to try to form a government. If no working government can be formed after 45 days, he has the power to call a new election.
Eyeing a snap vote, none of Turkey’s major parties have an interest in being seen to scupper a deal, meaning coalition negotiations could be drawn out potentially for months.