Wheel of fortune
Finally the Turkish people have overcome, to an extent, the irresistible pull of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The party won the elections, but the result was far from ideal. It recorded its first fall in support in four elections, which means the new president’s dreams of consolidating power and making his office much more powerful will now never come to fruition. And as is always the case in the more advanced countries, the financial markets are the most credible litmus test of popular sentiment. And the way the Istanbul Stock Exchange took a nosedive and how the lira lost a good five percent against the dollar in a short period of time indicated investors weren’t willing to touch Turkey – usually a safe play – with a 10-foot pole.
But why did the party suffer such embarrassment so suddenly, even though it won the election. Erdogan’s Islamist ideals were the last thing the powerful military – strongly committed to Ataturk’s staunch secularism – or the bulk of the people would have wanted. Yet he’s stayed in power for 13 years, with the party’s popularity rising with every election. Turks liked initially that despite his personal tilt to the right, he seemed delivering on things that mattered. Courts there were pretty much like here, making noise about everything except justice delivery. And the party made sure it took weeks or months, not years or decades, for ordinary people to get justice. His economics enriched a few more than others, but improved the lot of the whole country. And his foreign policy – zero problems with neighbours – came to be seen as the ideal example for a Muslim country. He even kept Israel in check.
But of late, especially since the Arab Spring made way to Syria, Erdogan has appeared a man increasingly divorced from reality. His personal falling out with Bashar al Assad – previously fast friends – made Turkey partake in a war that has brought it, and the region, only trouble, besides destroying its foreign policy equilibrium. He has become more authoritarian, hammering down on the slightest sign of dissent. And there is increasing hubris in his outlook. Now he wanted absolute majority to amend the constitution and make his office more powerful. Critics have long observed a trend in his strangeness. Somewhere on the road to restoring Turkey’s lost glory, he’s become something like an Ottoman ruler in his own mind. Hence references to ‘Pasha Erdogan’ in the international press. There is a lesson in his rise and sudden loss of lustre for other Muslim rulers. His example was perhaps the best to emulate for a long time, till it became one of the worst. And now that the wheel of fortune seems to have come full circle for him, downhill is the most likely road from here, even though his party has just won another election.
