Two years of PML-N government

Three more to go?

The PML-N government is in the throes of celebrating its two years in power. Being the ruling party at the federal level and in Punjab, it claims that there is a lot to cheer about. But critics fail to comprehend what is the drumbeating all about.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. The mere fact that a civilian government has been able to survive amongst a labyrinth of complex issues is perhaps an achievement by itself.

Exactly a year ago the Sharif government seemed to be pretty secure. But then all of a sudden things started to go wrong. It all started when the prime minister decided to attend newly elected Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath taking ceremony last May.

Sharif failed to raise the Kashmir issue in the one-on-one meeting with his Indian counterpart in New Delhi. He also decided not to meet with the Hurriyet leadership – lest it annoyed the freshly inducted hardliner BJP prime minister.

This was not taken too kindly back home. Both the military leadership and the media perhaps felt that the PML-N government was deviating from Islamabad’s traditional stance on the Kashmir issue.

To add insult to injury, Pakistan’s largest media group GEO and ISI (Inter Services Intelligence) spat negatively impacted upon civilian-military relations. GEO directly, albeit unfairly, blamed the then DG ISI, Lt-General Zaheer-ul-Isalm, for the attack by still unknown gunmen on Hamid Mir in Karachi. The government was perceived to be backing the media group rather than its ISI chief.

However, the last straw that almost broke the traditional camel’s back was Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri’s well-coordinated putsch against the Sharif government. The dharna at Islamabad’s D-Chowk that started on 14^th August last year in its first two weeks had already rocked the boat.

Exactly a year ago the Sharif government seemed to be pretty secure. But then all of a sudden things started to go wrong

Both Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri tried to strengthen the perception that they had the tacit backing of the establishment. Whether true or not, it soon became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

A stage soon came that where military chief General Raheel Sharif, who had only replaced General Kayani in November 2013, was forced to arbitrate in the name of salvaging the incipient democratic system. He offered the PTI chief that his demands sans resignation of Nawaz Sharif as prime minster could form a basis of negotiations with Sharif, with the military perhaps acting as a facilitator.

The Khan heady with his successful dharna however refused to budge. He would settle for nothing less than Sharif’s scalp.

The prime minster and his advisors seemed clueless and without a cogent strategy to deal with the gauntlet thrown by Imran and Qadri. It was however the wily Zardari who came to the rescue by lending Sharif his support, counselling him to summon the joint houses of the parliament.

Nawaz heeded his advice. Thereby media focus immediately shifted towards the live proceedings of the parliament rather than entirely the dharna that deteriorated into Imran’s daily rants on top of the container. The rest is history.

With the exit of the ISI chief Zaheer-ul-Isalm in October things started easing. Imran would often claim in his speeches that the “third umpire” was about to raise his finger. The fabled “third umpire”, (if ever there was one), perhaps soon realised that Khan was a slippery customer not to be relied upon.

But, partly thanks to the dharna and partly owing to General Raheel Sharif’s decisive professionalism, civilian-military relations have undergone a transformation. The old Sharif, who as prime minister could not get along with any of the military chiefs, is doing fine with General Sharif.

Perhaps the prime minister, on the advice of his former nemesis Asif Ali Zardari and with the concurrence of his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif, is careful not to ruffle any feathers at the GHQ. The PPP government completed its five years in office by kowtowing to General Kayani to the extent of giving him an unprecedented extension for another three years.

General Raheel Sharif has not made any such unjust demand on the government. In fact the number of times the COAS calls upon the prime minister or accompanies him is unprecedented in the country’s history.

With the military having launched Zarb e Azb a year ago and having its decisive say in most security related and foreign policy issues, it has a much higher profile in statecraft. Sharif, in comparison, looks clueless. That is why a number of analysts perhaps unfairly claim that a “soft coup” has already taken place.

The last straw that almost broke the traditional camel’s back was Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri’s well-coordinated putsch against the Sharif government

Despite a mixed bag the PML-N government can take due credit for a number of achievements. Critics contend that it has had a bit of good luck in the form of falling oil prices. But fortune only favours the bold. Why grudge the Sharifs if they have had a bit of good luck?

The Finance Minster Ishaq Dar led economy has stabilised. Macroeconomic indicators have considerably improved. Inflation and resultantly discount rates are historically down. Stock exchange is booming. And international rating agencies Moody’s and Standard and Poor have upgraded the country’s credit ratings.

All this is good news. But the IMF conditionalities driven Pakistani economy is the slowest growing in the region excepting Afghanistan. Despite the loud claims, we are stuck in the groove of less than five per cent GDP growth even for the next financial year. India is poised to grow at 7.5 per cent even surpassing China. We have adopted the 90’s “Hindu growth rate” and India vice versa.

Admittedly, rampant terrorism, poor law and order and endemic energy shortages are a scourge of economic growth. But the way in which things are being run, in an arbitrary and non-transparent manner, has made matters worse.

Getting $47 billion plus investment around Pak-China economic corridor (PCEC) is being touted as a big achievement of the government. Thankfully the government has taken all stakeholders on board

After two years consolidation it’s high time the Sharifs embark upon growth related strategies. They need to outgrow their penchant for high profile capital-intensive projects and heavy borrowings.

Instead of relying upon a cabal of close advisors mostly family, they urgently need to widen their consultative process. In the domain of foreign policy, Pakistan internationally is not as isolated as it was a year ago.

Relations with the US have considerably improved and are excellent with China. Within the region Afghanistan under Ashraf Ghani is no longer an implacable enemy. However, admittedly relations with India remain an enigma. Thanks largely to a narcissistic Indian prime minister and his hawkish advisors.

This is the time for the Sharif government to move forward to tailor policies for the welfare of the people rather than merely for their narrow political goals. Ironically, Sharif wants to lower the taxes in a country whose tax to GDP ratio has already fallen from even the previous low of nine per cent.