The Saudi predicament

Trouble in the Eastern Province

Things are definitely not well in the Holy Land. But is there a pattern in the goings on in Saudi Arabia? The change of guard took place not long ago. And King Salman was quick to counter growing Iranian influence militarily – in Yemen. How that adventure dragged Pakistan into the crosshairs hardly needs any more commentary. But how it might have possibly over extended Riyadh definitely deserves comment. For a while the Saudis, along with friends in Turkey, US, EU and GCC, have been busy fomenting the rebellion inside Assad’s Syria.

Once the principal actors – long behind the curve – finally came to grips with the so called Arab Spring, everybody tried to ‘play’ it to their advantage. And when the axe seemed like falling on Damascus, there were a number of big guns whose interests were suddenly aligned. The Saudis had little tolerance for Iran – and hence its allies Syria and Lebanese force Hezbollah. The Americans didn’t like them much more. George Bush included Iran in his “axis of evil”. And these, along with Hamas, were also the principal anti-Israel resistance. Once pressure mounted, and a post Baathist Syria more open to Sunni persuasion became a likelihood, Turkey also shed its ‘zero problems with neighbours’ policy and hopped on the bandwagon.

But Assad’s opponents soon realised how their money and weapons had only strengthened al Qaeda’s position in the Levant, much as the Baathists had predicted. What is happening in Iraq is an extension of this phenomenon. And now IS is strengthened enough to strike within Saudi Arabia. They target the Shi’a, of course, in the Eastern Province. But remember this is where most of Saudi’s oil lies, so the regime will have to look into it seriously. But in doing so it is only countering a force that it helped inflate out of its obsession to degrade a political/sectarian rival within the Middle East. Now more time, energy and resources will be spent undoing a force they helped create. That has an unnerving parallel with Pakistan, and our own existential war against forces we created to further our own aims once upon a time. The sooner politics of interference and proxy militias is abandoned, the better for all these Muslim countries caught in extremist rebellion.