N’s third second year in power

Long way from the finish line

Once again Nawaz Sharif completes two years in power. He’s yet to complete three continuous years as prime minister. So, if history is anything to go by, this will be a nervous year for the Sharifs, at least psychology, especially since they are superstitious.

They don’t seem too bothered, though. The azadi marches and dharna threats –which did rattle some nerves initially in Islamabad – are long in the past. The Chinese Corridor put a feather in PML-N’s cap that few can attack. And the security posture is solid, especially with the kind of unity Zarb-e-Azb has inspired. Plus the PPP lasted the full five years with nothing nearly as substantial to show. And there’s always the ‘threat to democracy’ to resort to if things ever get testy again.

But scratch the surface and there is a fair bit of agitation. The dharnas may have gone, but the judicial commission remains. And Imran didn’t succeed in ousting N then, but he did get the commission, and any finding of fraud will hurt the government badly.

The economy, too, is a mixed bag at best when observed closely. Sure, inflation is low and there is an expansionist monetary and fiscal environment, but the transmission mechanism is weak and life has not improved for much of the population, especially middle and lower income groups.

Then, most importantly, there is the position with the military. Back in the day, just after N appointed the new chief, the ruling party adopted a clear, obviously calculated, position of confrontation with the army. There was friction about the talking to the Taliban, about the reconciliatory posturing with India, and especially about humiliating Gen Musharraf. But then the dharna took the wind out of N’s sails and he went running to Gen Sharif to ‘facilitate’. There have been no differences with the brass since then, of course.

Back in the day, just after N appointed the new chief, the ruling party adopted a clear, obviously calculated, position of confrontation with the army

“There is a very visible shift of power away from the government towards the military”, said Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi, a prominent analyst.

“Foreign policy, security and counterterrorism, which are the most important matters facing the state, have now become the army’s domain”.

Such sentiments play into talk of a ‘soft coup’ that has allegedly already swept Islamabad.

“It seems that the regime’s only success has been its ability to stay in power”, added Dr Rizvi.

N’s kitchen cabinet seems to have calculated, sometime around the dharna pressure, that it was best to back-peddle with the military, and enjoy whatever power possible so long as they remained the figurehead government, at least.

They still had considerable leeway over governance and economy, but their performance inspired little confidence on either front. Credit rating agencies have appreciated the stock market buoyancy and the economy is more ‘relaxed’ than a year ago, yet the micro situation is quite different than the macro narrative.

The growth rate is the second lowest in the region – the honours going to Afghanistan. And the 4.1 percent that the government just got the IMF to okay is a whole percentage point below the projected, and celebrated, 5.1 percent target.

“The breakdown of the growth is even less inspiring”, said Dr Rizvi. “The services sector has improved, but industry and agriculture have shown minimal progress”.

And since the latter two are the main drivers of employment, the fruits of an improved economy have yet to reach a bulk of the population.

Problems like lack of drinking water, electricity, gas, etc, not to mention a weak employment market that alienates a bulk of the youth bulge, are not even registered on the government’s priority radar

PML-N’s record on governance has not inspired much confidence either. And opposition sentiment, spearheaded by PTI, has not failed to exploit this shortcoming.

“Public confidence is very low and people’s problems are not being addressed”, said Shafqat Mahmood, senior PTI leader.

“The government cannot see beyond big projects – which bring cutbacks, etc. But such schemes do nothing about problems of common people”.

He mentioned water, electricity and sewage problems in his own constituency that the government promised to correct but did nothing about.

“The Corridor is good news and must be appreciated”, he said, adding, “but the common man has more urgent problems”.

Problems like lack of drinking water, electricity, gas, etc, not to mention a weak employment market that alienates a bulk of the youth bulge, are not even registered on the government’s priority radar.

N’s third year, therefore, will be a slippery slope after all. If Imran Khan’s prediction – that ’15 is the year of the next general election – turns out true, then Nawaz would not have been third time lucky. But he would have only himself, and those closest to himself, to blame. That only thing that has changed about his style of governance, after two premature sendoffs, is his appreciation of the military’s ingress into civilian decision making. Other than that he has little to his credit, especially with regard to the people and the country.