Without any reliable data on the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, the government and the International Monetary Fund have projected a GDP growth of 4.1 percent for the current fiscal year, even though the actual picture will be clear after the meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) which is expected to be held earlier next week.
An informed source said that the GDP growth rate announced by the IMF and the government’s economic team on Monday was not backed by any reliable data. It was based on computer generated estimates. “Usually the finance ministry presents inflated economic estimates to IMF, while they (IMF authorities) present slightly deflated estimates to their high ups.”
The actual data will be compiled by the National Accounts Committee, which can meet only after the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) receives and compiles the data, he said, adding so far the PBS had no data on agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors, as the provincial governments had not shared the latest data.
Preliminary estimates show that the productivity of the agriculture and manufacturing, sectors especially the large scale manufacturing (LSM), has declined during the current fiscal year. The production of wheat, sugarcane and rice has declined due to higher input costs and absence of state intervention in the procurement while the growth of LSM was affected due to persistent energy crisis, the source said.