A complex issue with a simple solution
The fuss over the prospective economic corridor to be built with Chinese help is better understood in light of the geographical layout of Gwader, the benefits and threats it offers and the dynamics of Balochistan. I quote excerpts from my article published October 1, 2013:
‘Gwadar port, located at the entrance of Strait of Hormuz, offers huge economic opportunities not only to Pakistan but to others too i.e., the Central Asian Republics, Middle East, South Asia and the Gulf States. By the very virtue of this strategic geographical location, it creates a conflict of interests between nations deeply influenced by its development. Gwadar provides the shortest possible access for Afghanistan to the Indian Ocean and is the most cost effective.’
“Fazl-e-Haider in The National, UAE, states, “The port has the potential to serve as a secure outlet as well as a storage and transshipment hub for the Middle East and Central Asia oil and gas supplies through a well-defined corridor passing through Pakistan. Gwadar gives China a land-based oil supply port that is not controlled by superior US naval power. Gwadar port, through the proposed energy and trade corridors, gives western China access to the sea. Crude oil imports from Iran, the Arab Gulf states and Africa could be transported overland to north-west China through the port.” (October 7, 2012)
“In my opinion, militarily, Gwadar will offer an immediate strategic advantage to Pakistan in case of any future armed conflict by not being held hostage to Karachi. It also compliments China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy offering maritime access points to Chinese navy within the area of Indian Ocean. India feels most threatened by Gwadar agreement between China and Pakistan, writes Farooq Yousuf in a national local daily. “Among its critics, India is the most prominent that raised concerns over Gwadar agreement calling it a threat to India’s maritime security. Indian military analysts are of the opinion that the port’s only objective for China is to encircle India in the sea through the famously known concept of String of Pearls, or the Chinese ally ports encircling India. Such concerns apparently are exaggerated and uncalled for as, first, Pakistan is in need of an economic push to save its dwindling economy. Moreover, Pakistan has rarely expressed concerns on India purchasing state of the art weaponry from its friends, such as Israel.” (February 22, 2013)
“The view by Robert D Kaplan, a world renowned journalist, is forthright, “The world’s “busiest and most important interstate, is the Indian Ocean, with 50 per cent of all container traffic and 70 per cent of all petroleum traffic traversing its waters. It is this region — with China and India jockeying for dominance, the United States trying to maintain its influence and unstable regimes threatening the flow of resources — that will be the setting for most of the global conflicts in the coming decades.” (New York Post, October 2010) India, on heels of the MoU signed between Pakistan and China has gone ahead to sign a port deal with Iran. The cargo terminal at Chahbahar, will give India a better chance to embed herself in Afghanistan, as well as offering an alternate route to land locked Afghanistan presently very much reliant upon Pakistan for this. India has ignored in their haste, tripping over their shoelaces to get the deal cut, dried and in the bag, warning by the US before final nuclear terms be settled with Tehran.
“Therefore, with China’s commitment to invest another $1.62 billion for development of Gwadar with an aim to connect Gwadar to Xinjiang thereby acting as a corridor for China’s Maritime Silk Route that is going to link up many countries, some of them currently landlocked as a part of this project, is not sitting well with those who rule the roost presently.”
The stakes are high and upsetting of the apple cart will hurt many. Mian Abrar, in his recent op-ed in Pakistan Today points out; “Balochistan has once again come under media spotlight. However, the timing of the media focus returning to Balochistan is not only significant but its nature has also changed. With landmark agreements signed between China and Pakistan for investment of $46 billion in Pakistan, the Balochistan problem is resurfacing — suggesting that something has been cooking elsewhere. The sequence of the recent events also suggests that the brutal murder of the civil society activist Sabeen Mahmud has something to do with these developments.” (May 2, 2015)
If one recalls, a report released to the parliamentarians sometime in early December 2010, by former Director General Military Operations Ahmed Shuja Pasha, shared that Russia and India were also involved in the insurgency in Balochistan. Pasha had shared the presence of nine training camps dotting the Afghan border for the training of members of BLA. “He also claimed, “India and the UAE (reportedly due to opposition to construction of the Gwadar port) were funding and arming the Baloch. Pasha also claimed that the Russian government was directly involved in funding/training/supporting the insurgency.” (Newspaper report published December 3, 2010) The mention of UAE is interesting as Dubai Port’s strategic interests may be hurt with a fully functional Gwadar Port.
To jog a few memories here, US Congressman Dana Rohrabacher had tabled a resolution in the House of Representatives that called upon Pakistan to accept the right of Baloch self-determination. This was followed a week later of chairing a Congressional Meeting on Balochistan, and reported in local newspapers on February 18th, 2012.
To get a bigger picture, situation in Balochistan must be analysed. I quote Khan Zia from his latest piece, ‘Balochistan – facts and fiction’, “Any claim that these few individuals represent the desires and aspirations of all the people of Balochistan is manifestly mischievous. Ethnic Balochis are in a minority in the province itself. In a total population of around eight million, their number is about three million, divided among eighty-two or so tribes. Out of these only parts of three tribes are active in revolt. Economic development depends upon a host of factors that include the starting base, existing infrastructure, environmental conditions that can support concentrations of population, availability of trained workforce, managerial talent, state of security and recourse to justice, access to education and health institutions, etc. All of these subjects fall under provincial jurisdiction and the blame for their unsatisfactory state in Balochistan cannot be laid on rest of the country. If anything, the per capita share of federal funds is much greater for Balochistan than any other province.” (The writer is author of ‘Muslims and the West: A Muslim Perspective’ and ‘Pakistan: Roots, Perspective and Genesis’)
I completely concur on the provincial nature of the elements quoted, emotional rhetoric by some notwithstanding.
The government plans to make Gwadar a free port thereby exempt from excise duty. One need to be reminded here that the Jabal Ali Port in Dubai is also a free port. The completion of Gwadar Port will be an economic elixir not only for the country but also for Balochistan that will provide jobs for the locals thereby improving their economic condition.
Any government that actively seeks to complete the Gwadar project and achieves the goal can look forward to another five years in office, with ease. Can PML-N deliver?
Perfect analysis. I feel Gwadar and Economic Trade Corridor is a reality and it will happen irrespective of the government in place-""""the reason Chinese Premier addressed joint session and held separate one on one meeting at GHQ"""". Just look at the size of China's investment and her vital interest.
Yes lot many opportunities. But are we preparing Balochistan population, or for that matter of fact entire Pakistan to absorb $46 bln? I dont find any road map or drawing board graphs. The only bad rumour-land astride projected alignment of routes has been purchased through patwaris-though no evidance. But remember if baloon exists, only then it can be inflated.
Allah bless this Pakistan. Ameen!
Oh yeah, yeah. Russian Border does not touch Afghanistan or Baluchistan but she needs Warm Water Port that does not freeze because all more than a dozen Russian port in Black Sea freeze, right?
* Russia needs a warm water port in Gulf because it would be most convenient but what is Bandar Abbas from where Iranian Trains go to Azerbaijan and then connect to Russian Railway system already in use?
* Gwadur is shortest way to ship Goods to Afghanistan though there are no roads from there to even Baluchistan capital Quetta, right?
* Gwadur is most convenient to ship Goods to Central Asian countries, when a huge cheap fuel port of Iran, Bander Abbas is not far from it and it has a very good highway up to Ashkabad, Turkmenistan being used by all Central Asian countries and even Afghanistan, right?
* Gwadur is most convenient for Baluchistan and Afghanistan, when Quetta is much closer to Karachi than Gwadur, straight north of Karachi and there is no direct highway to reach it just like from Gwadur. No?
* Any Goods from Gwadur have to be shipped to Quetta because that's where Afghan Highway going to Qandhar and northern Afghanistan is. No?
Why don't you Punjabis admit, you want to build a highway connecting Punjab with Gwadur because of your fear that Karachi or whole Sindh may separate from Pakistan in future because of your constant looting, hegemony and corrupt rule?
Oh "ye ye turkey(aka ghasi ram) fellow"- if you are not aware of what shipping is about do not keep poking your nose in every discussion. Just picking a map and giving your ridiculous out put is not necessary. And u are upto yourself again – Punjabi vs others. How much are you being paid by the FBI/CIA for your lies? Remember you once threatened me to be handed over to the FBI. My legs are still shivering!
am
yes turkman u r right we are not ready to admit the fact, only think about the benefits not about the rights
why govt was not concerning before about the infra structures in balochistan ,when they realised their mean then they went for steps which are now being taken
The Chinese, Iranians, Indians all know of Gwadar’s immense potential, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Oman also know and that is reason they have in past, and will in future, do all to sabotage development of Gwadar. The only one not to know, have no clue, is Pakistan, thanks to the ignorance of its rulers and their disinterest in anything that does not yield immediate and bagful of personal largesse to them. Good luck Pakistan!
Dear Yasmeen,
Governments that do not deliver anything just keep on coming back in Pakistan. If they start delivering then who would let them govern Pakistan ?
Pakistan has worked hard to bring forward the development of Gwadur.
Khalid sees nothing good and is always whining about non-issues.
When was Gwadur sabotaged?
Looks like we have another Seymour Hersh here who quoted unknown intelligence officers to spout non-intelligent idiocities,
It was sabotaged by Dubai until a discreet message went that if it comes to physical interference two can play the game, the Singapore company was then left to do its work until made to pack up and leave by govt. power centers being incentivized by outsiders to make it impossible for it to continue in any sane manner.
Dear Yasmeen Ali,
Thanks for a very fair write up.
Best regards
If one may have 1000 reasons to negate but fact will not change.
President Mush had fully realized what is written in this article and he certainly had a plan to ensure its security. Naturally Baluch factor could never be overruled. The most wanted project was ignored by AAZ,which caused loss of time. People like Sethi did continue play their anti role activities tacitly and even now its not off.
Today it is an extremely difficult question to guess the percentage of success in the presence of A Div + Force to guard. It reminds me of days, ten vehicles moving in Baluchistan under twenty vehicle convoy
and yet got ambushed at times. Though it will not be that tense situation. But determined anti effort can not be ruled out.
Political stunts have been there in the form of Iran-Pak Gas line and same is the present situation. Well MLN has also played this card.
Wait and see, will be, the best Policy till any result comes.
Dear Madam Yasmeen,
Excellent article.
A key concern is raised at the end: Can PML-N deliver?
It’s not complicated to envision: the ruling party’s professionalism aside, they never preferred national interests over personal interests in all their tenures. They lacked transparency in justice system and serving the economy of the country. In spite of it, majority of people of Punjab vote them in.
Excellent progress was made in Gwader by General Musharraf but he was removed before he could make turnaround there. In the meantime, his peace efforts with India in Kashmir accelerated his removal.
It is yet to be seen if Imran Khan can muster enough public support single handedly against combined political force of PMLN, PPP and their allies who have been in power but failed to deliver goods.
Last but not the least; Pakistan's Military keeping the wagon running between the two ditches!
Thank you once again for good write up.
Best regards,
M. A. Chishty
Mam a very good article keep it up n stayblessd
Sigh, I do not know how many writers have crisscrossed Baluchistan, as a geologist at least I have. What bothered me the most was neglecting of this province? I was there until 1970’s, in those days one could travel hundreds of miles without seeing a single soul; I used to think why Karachi & then Islamabad has written off such a strategically important area. Gwader along with the other towns were not connected to the rest of the country, either by road or by train’s network. There were virtually no borders, any one could enter & leave from any direction. One Baluchi Sardar said it correctly, the nations which cannot secure their borders cease to exist. Knowing the terrain I can say with utmost confidence, there is hardly any place in Baluchistan for the criminals to hide, but apparently even the current establishment is not serious about settling the issue of Baluchistan. Unless the routes through Baluchistan are secured, the silk route will remain like a fools dream.
The whole of Northern Pakistan is a no-go area i.e. controlled by the Army. The Army do not want people to benefit from any developments in the region. That is why it continues the military operation and create havoc in that area. Have refugees gone back to their homes? The Army want the area to be free from the people living there. Remember Australia. When the whites went there the original inhabitants were wiped out.
This is nice and a very good article ever read this.
It's in reality a nice and useful piece of info. I am glad that you simply shared this helpful information with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.
Comments are closed.