Pak-China: Friends for mutual benefit

CPEC is the way forward but there are a few glitches along the way

Pakistan has recently signed 51 MoUs in a decisive strategy to congeal ties with its friendly neighbour China. This politically correct policy has two-pronged motivations, as it has the ability to heal Pakistan’s economic lacerations in the long run, and at the same time, it is a public declaration of strategic partnership between two topographical neighbours with its widespread global geostrategic implications.

The emergence of China’s designs to strengthen its regional domination by investing in Pakistan and its crucial political role in Afghanistan has generated rising concerns within the region, especially by another evolving power, India. India would only be able to create access routes to Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia and North Europe through Pakistan or Iran. Pakistan seriously needs investment in infrastructure and energy ventures to resolve its contemporary economic predicaments. The most effective and inexpensive access route for India is only possible via Pakistan. It is claimed that India is financing extremists to create turbulence in the region in an attempt to jeopardise development projects. Allegedly, these militant outfits are being sponsored by India and they use neighbouring Afghan territory as a sanctuary. It is crucial for Pakistan to provide an encouraging atmosphere for the successful utilisation of the Chinese investment; otherwise, there would be serious repercussions. Henceforth, unanimous national harmony is key to the implementation of these mega projects.

By investing a hefty amount of $46 billion, China surely has its own ulterior motives for the development of the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’, which will provide direct access routes to the entire Asian region via the Gwadar Port, and it will also enhance the development process of its troubled Xinjiang province. Additionally, the Chinese assurance of financial investment inflated Pakistan’s confidence to dodge the Saudi request for the dispatch of troops to fight in Yemen.

In an interesting turn of events, Chinese President Xi Jinping finally decided to visit Pakistan, after all. Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) was an integral part of this massive economic cooperation deal as well but General Raheel Sharif’s recent visit to the Republic of China is also noteworthy in this situation. China has often been dubbed as Pakistan’s “all weather friend”, and this relationship of mutual benefit has always benefitted Pakistan in one form or the other in the long run. There are always pros and cons to pivotal political moves, as Niccolò Machiavelli once said, “There are always means to an end.”

By investing a hefty amount of $46 billion, China surely has its own ulterior motives for the development of the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’, which will provide direct access routes to the entire Asian region via the Gwadar Port, and it will also enhance the development process of its troubled Xinjiang province

Pakistan direly needs an economic boost in such tumultuous times when the country’s national security has been compromised in a plethora of ways, but the army emerges out of this situation as the only survivor with a few scars on the way, which may have been manipulated by other state elements in pursuit of their nefarious long-term designs. General Raheel Sharif’s visit to China paved the way for this economic venture to be initiated in full swing, and the security concerns of China were addressed, while various other assurances were solidified. A special security force comprising of elite SSG commandos has been created to protect Chinese workers in the region.

This cloak of economic development should not attempt to conceal human rights abuses and state-sponsored terrorism. Both these nations have perpetrated several human rights abuses in their respective bordering regions in order to curb terrorist operations, while both governments assert that ‘foreign powers’ are responsible for these insurgencies. The claim that Punjab is going to be the major beneficiary from this deal may perhaps be an overstatement. The redirection of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) took place as a precautionary measure, keeping in mind the instability of the region. Military operations in Balochistan and North Waziristan have been expedited as a result of these security concerns. This economic deal may enhance geostrategic cooperation between the two countries but it would further isolate and neglect the local concerns of their respective unstable regions. The locals do not have faith in Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s claim that the development of Balochistan is ‘close to his heart’ when the practical situation has hardly changed.

In the 21^st century, Balochistan still lacks basic infrastructure amongst other basic necessities. There is absolutely no doubt that the central government of PML-N has been discriminatory towards the needs of Balochistan, whereas successive governments have had the habit of manipulating the natural resources of this region since the inception of Pakistan. Balochistan has always been deprived of its rightful share in the economic disbursements produced by the region itself. The 7^th NFC Award was incapable of solving this part of the region’s troubles. On top of that there are no employment opportunities for the locals. Such mega projects like this agreement have time and again failed to boost economic activity within the region, and have seldom benefitted the locals in any way. Transportation of goods and machinery requires development of infrastructure and communication links, which is why the deal would benefit the geographical region in one way or the other, and may even decrease the unemployment rate significantly. The hostile separatists in Balochistan claim that this alienation by the central government has largely been responsible for secessionist-armed opposition. Assimilating the Balochistan region within Pakistan via economic development is essential to suppress these secessionist tendencies.

The method of execution of this project is still ambiguous because the ruling government has been extremely inscrutable regarding the implementation of these development designs. The role of the private sector has largely been negated and the business community is concerned about its exclusion from this massive deal

Moving on, let us take a closer look at the economic implications on this deal without any political references. The convergence of interests benefits both countries in different ways. This deal is based on the concept of ‘project finance’ rather than a simple long-term investment plan, as propagated by the media. China wishes to expand its trade base in Asia. This investment will result in an exponential growth of indigenous assets to be used in the mega project. Those assets would serve as an indemnity for the debt incurred by the project. After the project starts generating income on its own, the revenue would be used to recompense the debt with an enormous amount of interest. These mega projects would take decades of labour to finally generate income as self-sufficient entities. The trade corridor of Gwadar gives China access to Gulf countries and the Caspian region. It will benefit Pakistan by giving it access routes to Muscat, Dubai and Doha, if the region is completely secured. Thus, it will only be a win-win situation for Pakistan if it is able to consistently secure the Chinese investment over a passage of time and successfully actualise this development process without any glitches along the way, especially in terms of national security.

The method of execution of this project is still ambiguous because the ruling government has been extremely inscrutable regarding the implementation of these development designs. The role of the private sector has largely been negated and the business community is concerned about its exclusion from this massive deal. This suggests that the government intends to indulge itself in blatant nepotism during the implementation of these projects by contracting specific developers for the completion of this mega project. PML-N should devise more inclusive policies of development; otherwise, a subsequent regime change would damage the mega project in the times ahead. Additionally, there is an ever-rising risk of an influx of Chinese products into the Pakistani indigenous market which would be further detrimental for the manufacturing industry of Pakistan. The successful execution of these projects would magnify China’s global reach and has the potential to change the trends of global trade flow, if executed with diligence.

Hence, in addition to other foreign elements, the enemy lies within Pakistan, and the fruitful implementation of this mega project would benefit Pakistan in terms of indigenous infrastructure. At the same time this deal would definitely amplify China’s global reach. China would benefit far more from this project than Pakistan, which is an undeniable fact, but it is in Pakistan’s best interest to move along with the rising power of Asia. Geostrategic implications would continue to make the implementation difficult for Pakistan so it should remain steadfast in its endeavours to successfully implement this mega project. Every step in that direction is crucial for progress. The development process should not be derailed by successive changes of regime; otherwise, the consequences have the ability to thrash Pakistan’s already dwindling economy. Pakistan should focus on securing China’s investment with utmost diligence. The incurred debt cannot be avoided by Pakistan as it is necessary to supplement economic growth at this point in time, but the future generations would certainly have to incur this expense, unavoidably.