More sorties over Yemen

Why call off raids, then?

Things are clearly moving fast over Yemen. And all is not well with the Saudi offensive. Why, for example, would Riyadh announce an end to the air campaign, and renew sorties just two days later? And how could Tehran tell of the air force being called back a little in advance? It seems the Saudis have not only been confronted with a lot of international pressure, but are also surprised by the stiff resistance of the Houthis. The speed with which anti-Saudi militias were reorganising once the bombing stopped, perhaps, led to a sobering reassessment of the air campaign’s effectiveness. So, for the time being at least, there will be more bombs.

A more important question still remains. When calling off the air raids, the Saudis mentioned funnelling the Royal National Guard into Yemeni territory to follow up the aerial blitzkrieg. The Guard, though part of the Saudi army, is a crack outfit from tribes loyal to the king; they answer solely to the monarch and are used more usually to quell internal uprisings. They do have a history of cross-border deployment as well. But the situation will change drastically if this elite Guard is really pushed into Yemen. Saudi Arabia will have difficulty justifying body-bags, especially if the conflicts linger and more units are sucked into the fight.

Interestingly, Nawaz was (again) in Saudi Arabia just when the reversal regarding the air raids was being decided. Hopefully the prime minister would have tried to convince his friends, once again, of the folly of getting too deeply involved in such conflicts. No better example than Pakistan, in fact, of the horrors of indulging in cross-border proxy conflicts. There is still time to step back and turn to negotiations. But that will not be possible if Riyadh continues with its aggressive posturing. There is a need, therefore, of more international pressure on Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies. The fighting is clearly not going to produce substantive results, only talking will.