No military solution to a political conflict
After nearly a month of ill-conceived airstrikes, Saudi Arabia has decided to call them off. What has forced the decision is a failure to stop the Houthis’ advance who have ensconced themselves in Aden after overrunning a number of provinces. Another factor behind the cessation of the strikes is the fear of reprisals in the form of suicide attacks inside the Kingdom as a reaction to the killings and the destruction of private properties and state installations in Yemen. With nearly half the Saudi army comprising Yemenis, and numerous others from the country working in Saudia, incidents of the sorts cannot be ruled out. Diplomatic pressure too seems to have played a role in the sudden decision to terminate the “Decisive Storm”. The Saudi government has meanwhile declared victory maintaining that the threat to Saudi Kingdom’s security has been terminated. The justification initially given for the operation was the restoration of the ‘legitimate’ government in Yemen.
The deployment of Saudi National Guard indicates that the Kingdom is about to initiate a ground offensive. In case it does so, this would constitute a bigger folly. So far Saudi casualties have been insignificant. In any prolonged ground action these are bound to increase. The only way out is a ceasefire which can only be possible under the UN. UN Secretary General has already appointed a new envoy for Yemen who could supervise the ceasefire. Once there is peace in the country the presidential elections which were scheduled for March this year could be held under the UN. The new consensus government could call on the Houthis to return to their province.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif needs to tell the Saudi King that there is no military solution to the Yemen conundrum which is political in nature and can only be resolved through talks. Seeking a military victory should not be made a matter of prestige. Saudi security requires peace in the region which can only be achieved through accommodation rather than an inflexible stand.
