Addressing Saudi Arab’s fears

Of a strong Iran

New alliances and changing regional aims are creating insecurity with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s breakthrough nuclear deal with USA in the backdrop of Houthis’ rebellion has sent waves of anger and panic to the Arab royals who feel that the face of Middle East politics may change, and the status quo disturbed as a detriment to Saudi Arabia. Yemen has all the potential of developing into a regional conflict. Iran and Saudi Arabia spearhead the two dividing poles within the Middle Eastern countries. One is headed by Saudi Arabia with its partners Bahrain and UAE. The other led by Iran with its partners Hezbollah and Syrian government.

Defence Analyst Lieutenant General (retd) Ghulam Mustufa, (awarded with Hilal-e-Imtiaz (Military) Sitara-e-Eisaar, Tamgha-e-Basalat), offers an interesting opinion on this polarisation and conflict of both to overcome the other, “With support from Russia, Iran has firmly established its influence in the ongoing Syrian crisis by preventing the regime change. Bashar al-Assad is regaining some of the lost ground. Apparently, the whole strategy of replacing Assad is being reconsidered. With sanctions lifted after June this year, Iran’s nuisance value in this region is likely to increase further, especially with Iraq likely remaining divided with majority Shia elements in the driving seat and expected success against Daesh. Iran would be firmly established as the leader of progressive elements on two sides of Saudi Arabia. If Yemen, too, were to be lost due to ascendency of pro-Iran elements, the ruling class in Saudi Arabia and UAE will be in trouble. Iran’s capacity for mischief, to an extent backed by increasingly assertive Russia, can be a nuisance when it has a foothold on the Gulf of Eden through a pro-Iran government in Yemen. This situation may not be to Pakistan’s liking in the long run. Advantages of Gwadar may be nullified to some degree.”

The conflict in Yemen has strong flavours of domestic struggle. A predominantly Sunni government failed in holding on to power as it crumbled like a stack of cards in the face of rebellions in its south and north. However, the differences were purely of domestic and tribal nature, yet it is already shaping up into a regional conflict. Saudi Arabia has taken a moral high ground for attacking Yemen stating this is to protect and restore the legitimate government of Yemen.

Besides the GCC countries, Morocco, Jordan, Egypt and Sudan are taking part in Operation Decisive Storm against Houthis in Yemen. Pakistan’s name was a part of the panel before the taking of a vote from the Parliament which unanimously said ‘no’. As a result, the stance of the Pakistani government (for the time being) is ‘no to war’. An unlikely ally emerging for Saudi Arabia is Israel. An Iran dominated Yemen or an independent government installed in Yemen can cut off Israel from accessing the Indian Ocean. This will severely decapitate Israel’s ability to launch its Dolphin class submarines in the Persian coast veering towards the Iranian coast.

Why is Yemen so important to Saudi Arabia? “For Saudi Arabia, what happens south of their border is a matter of grave national security. They cannot allow instability there to give Iran a solid foothold on the peninsula or AQAP free movement northwards,” says Martin Reardon in his piece in Al-Jazeera. Iran’s involvement to support the Houthis is dangerous and rings alarm bells for the Saudi government. That Iran is supplying the Houthis directly and indirectly with the weapons is no secret. The Guardian writes, “Secretary of state says he is aware supplies are arriving in Yemen from Iran and warns the US will not step away from its allies in the region.” (April 8, 2015) Although the Huothis are independent of Tehran, this opportunity has nonetheless been exploited by Tehran to its advantage.

The other side of the coin: Mark Mazzatti and Helene Cooper state, “To wage war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is using F-15 fighter jets bought from Boeing. Pilots from the United Arab Emirates are flying Lockheed Martin’s F-16 to bomb both Yemen and Syria. Soon, the Emirates are expected to complete a deal with General Atomics for a fleet of Predator drones to run spying missions in their neighbourhood. As the Middle East descends into proxy wars, sectarian conflicts and battles against terrorist networks, countries in the region that have stockpiled American military hardware are now actually using it and wanting more. The result is a boom for American defence contractors looking for foreign business in an era of shrinking Pentagon budgets — but also the prospect of a dangerous new arms race in a region where the map of alliances has been sharply redrawn.” (NYT, April 18, 2015)

Yemen can be used as a card to settle Syria is a thought that must have crossed Arab minds. The fact is Yemen will not settle anytime soon. The fact is Syria will not settle anytime soon. The fact is both Saudi Arab and Iran will continue making an effort to increase their sphere of influence which promises to spill over and scald the region badly.

The United States’ bend (as seen by Saudi Arabia) towards Iran has further deepened the insecurity of the House of Saud. Le Monde diplomatique writes, “The revelation that the US was conducting secret negotiations with Iran (talks hosted by Oman, a member of the GCC), and the announcement of the interim nuclear agreement, have revived Saudi Arabia’s fears of a US-Iranian accommodation at the expense of the Arab world. Prince Turki al-Faisal, former head of intelligence services, told me in 2010: “We are worried that the US and Iran could both forget our interests. We would be caught between a nuclear Iran and a nuclear Israel. Thank God for Ahmadinejad!” Such a reversal of allegiance would have been unlikely with the then Iranian leader (Quoted: Alain Gresh, “China and Saudi Arabia: just good friends.” Le Monde diplomatique, English edition, January 2011) However, Ahmadinejad was replaced by Hassan Rouhani in June 2013, and it is now seen as a possibility in Saudi Arabia. It’s not the content of a nuclear accord that worries Riyadh so much as the actual possibility of an accord and an end to Iran’s isolation.”

Also of concern to the House of Saud in this changing scenario is that it feels challenged structurally as it bases its claim of rule on a religious foundation. Of course, Saudi Arabia needs assurance that the changing alliances with so many new nuances will not have a negative cascading effect on the House of Saud. It is a natural desire. Of course, it would like to know from the US that the ground breaking nuclear deal with Iran would not mean loss of an important ally. Of course, it would like to have assurance from countries they have sustained in many ways, that they will support Saudi Arabia if their hegemony is challenged at any level. These are legitimate interests of a nation in that position, one can say.

This brings us to Pakistan’s tightrope. A unanimous resolution by Pakistan’s Parliament not to involve the country in a military engagement with Yemen on behalf of Saudi Arabia should have clinched the matter. Apparently not. One reason may be the haste in which the Sharif government jumped in to offer support in all manners possible before a reality check.

Put under tremendous pressure by the benefactors, CM Punjab had to rush to Saudi Arabia to soothe ruffled feathers because of this resolution. Leading anchorperson P J Mir feels the trip was the outcome of “a fragile situation due to mismanagement both in the Parliament as well as the media, making this an exercise in damage control.” On heels has come UN Security Council’s decision to impose a global asset freeze and travel ban on both Ahmed Saleh and his father former Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh and two others. Pakistan in the meanwhile “pledged to consider expanding cooperation with Saudi Arabia under the UN resolution,” according to a report by a local newspaper. The report suggests possible role for Pakistan Navy in enforcing the arms embargo on Houthis militia and forces loyal to the former Yemini President. The purpose of launching the vessels is said to intercept any arms shipped in to Yemen. At a certain level, one can understand Pakistan’s dilemma yet practically getting sucked into the conflict will diffuse the red line. Once the military gets involved, the vortex will suck us in, by any reasonable calculation.