They got in, but can they get the government out?
Strangely, it took months and months of back-and-forth but PML-N agreed to the judicial commission on pretty much the same terms that they rejected in the dying days of the dharna. They even agreed to a tighter timeline (45 days) than PTI fought over (six months) initially. Back then, according to PTI, the government’s team would repeatedly agree to a time limit during discussions, but would invariably leave it open ended when they returned with the written draft – after consulting with the kitchen cabinet, of course.
So what happened? Most analysts were pretty sure that N would never green-light a chain reaction that had any chance of undoing his heavy mandate. That was, after all, why he dilly-dallied all the way through the dharna and after. Why, suddenly, a judicial commission, headed by the SC CJ, with just over a month to deliver a verdict on the ’13 election?
“I think the best the judicial commission can do is suggest changes in the electoral process, nothing beyond that”, said Dr Hasan Askari Rizi, a prominent political analyst. “Do not expect the commission to do something as radical as sending the government packing”.
Some of PTI’s allegations may have made for good political speeches that kept the dharna running, but it’s a different matter proving them in a court of law. And whether or not Khan sb’s team can back his conviction with incontrovertible proof remains to be seen.
“They will need to establish systematic manipulation in a planned manner to undo the government”, Dr Rizvi added. “And that will be very difficult to prove. The commission could find blunders, mistakes and negligence on part of the authorities, but that does not prove planned manipulation, so Imran may fall short of his objective”.
Most analysts were pretty sure that N would never green-light a chain reaction that had any chance of undoing his heavy mandate. That was, after all, why he dilly-dallied all the way through the dharna and after
Dr Rizvi is among analysts who believe that though the judicial commission is a landmark achievement the only purpose it can serve is identifying flaws in the electoral process and ensuring such lapses are not repeated.
But it will not go so far as upsetting the apple cart; it will not fold the government and – adding to the list of Imran’s predictions that did not come true – ’15 will not be the year of elections.
And it’s not as if the judiciary is not under its fair share of undue pressure. Among Imran’s long list of bad guys – from the puncture-fixer caretaker CM to controlled returning officers – is another ‘match fixer’ that rubs them the wrong way. And former CJ Ch Iftikhar did not help friends, especially the JC, by stepping into the fray.
The letter to Ayaz Sadiq, for example, is widely seen as his baby steps in proper politics. His two-year bar ends in December, and many of his supporters – if not he himself – have postured for an entry into politics since the time of the lawyers movement.
“It seems a part of a trend. There was definitely a political deal that led to the judicial commission and PTI returning to the assembly”, said Moeed Pirzada, a respected political analyst and talk show host.
“And now they are just dirtying PTI”.
Prizada connects the dots, again, since the days of the lawyers movement.
“The N-league was always an integral part of the former CJ’s support camp”, he said. “The movement had clearly run out of steam. It was unable to reinstate Ch Iftikhar. Till a big political party put its weight behind him”.
But didn’t he also attack the N-league with the letter? He accused the speaker of betraying the constitution, practically, by allowing PTI back into the assembly.
“That could be a tactic”, thought Pirzada.
But Ch Iftikhar continues to have a diehard following in the judiciary, which personifies the commission’s dilemma.
“He will never allow anything that contradicts the constitution”, said Shafqat Mahmood, a prominent face of the lawyers movement who spearheaded the Lahore chapter. “And it’s not about Ch Iftikhar personally. It’s about the system. The system is bigger than the personality”.
As far as Imran is concerned, though, converting his sting against Ch Iftikhar into evidence that can stand in a court of law will be a hard fight
Mahmood also shed some light on the disconnect between Imran Khan and Ch Iftikhar. For much of the movement and beyond, Imran backed the former CJ to the hilt. It was only after the ’13 election, long after the movement had run its course and Iftikhar had been reinstated, that the two fell apart.
“Actually Hamid Khan wanted to bring Ch sb into PTI”, added Mahmood. “The CJ preferred Imran’s party over PML-N, but it seems he was misguided”.
Still, that does not explain why the former CJ would want to muddy the waters and make the JC’s assignment more difficult.
“I don’t see what he can achieve now except indulging in a lot of mud-slinging”, said Dr Rizvi.
As far as Imran is concerned, though, converting his sting against Ch Iftikhar into evidence that can stand in a court of law will be a hard fight. His interaction with returning officers, or even with the ruling party for that matter, may cause genuine concern in political circles, but actionable evidence is another matter altogether.
And if all the commission comes up with is irregularities, not planned and systemic fraud as Imran is certain, what options is PTI left with?
“Imran has stepped back too”, added Dr Rizvi. “He’s no longer insisting on a vote audit. Now the commission can order one, but is not mandated to”, so there is a lot of grey area. And it’s not like Imran can go back to the streets. Even if his followers show up for a few days, he will have no political support. It seems he will have to wait till the next election, which will not be this year if his case does not match his rhetoric.
PTI was still into its late Friday night huddle till the filing of this report, and hence was not available for comment.
