Emergence of new realities

And old paradigms

While Islamabad is taking due credit for playing the diplomatic card to resolve the crisis in Yemen, doubts persist about its real intentions. The rump of parliamentarians participating in the debate on a Saudi request for Pakistani military help expressed scepticism about the government’s actual agenda.

There was a strong perception that Islamabad had already done the deed and was now simply putting the cart before the horse by seeking the parliamentarians’ approval ipso facto. If key players had assured the prime minister that opposition parties would be all on board, the strategy somewhat boomeranged.

Most speakers from the opposition, while taking the floor in the joint session of parliament, were at variance with their leaderships on the issue. While the PML-Q supremo Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain is all for dispatching troops to Saudi Arabia post haste, his secretary general, Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, opposed any such adventure and favoured a diplomatic solution.

Ch Aitzaz Ahsan, the leader of the opposition in the Senate, also threw a spanner in the works by opposing any kind of military intervention in the Yemen imbroglio. Senator Farhatullah Babar virtually seconded him.

Interestingly, the PPP, which was ostensibly close to the government’s line of thinking, was forced to change course. Its central executive committee wants to send a delegation headed by ‘ace diplomat’ Rehman Malik to visit Middle East and Iran, seeking a diplomatic solution. Even normally gung ho Ms Shireen Mazari of the PTI opposed any Pakistani military commitment in Yemen.

Thankfully, in the end analysis, better sense prevailed. The unanimous resolution passed by the joint house of parliament calls for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. It has rightfully called on the government to move the UN Security Council and the OIC to bring about an immediate ceasefire in Yemen. The credit is due to the prime minister as well as all political parties in the parliament for not acceding to Saudi demands for a military commitment.

Thankfully, in the end analysis, better sense prevailed. The unanimous resolution passed by the joint session of parliament calls for a diplomatic solution to the crisis

The Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, heady with recently closing a deal with the west on Tehran’s nuclear program, has given a four-point proposal to end the Yemen crisis. Even the US is playing a different tune. Washington has clarified that it is exerting no pressure on Islamabad to dispatch military assistance to Saudi Arabia.

The US, on the one hand, has committed its full logistic and material support to its major ally in the Middle East. But, on the other hand, it is becoming increasingly sceptical about the long-term viability of Arab regimes.

In a recent interview with The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, generally perceived to be pro-Israel, the US president candidly admitted that although Washington’s Sunni Arab allies like Saudi Arabia had some real external threats, but they also had some internal threats — “populations that, in some cases, are alienated, youth that are underemployed, an ideology that is destructive and nihilistic, and in some cases the belief that there are no legitimate political outlets for grievances”.

Despite the candour expressed by President Obama in the last leg of his two-term presidency, Washington’s policies in the region are part of the problem rather than the solution. From Egypt down to Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya, its actions have engendered instability, the birth of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) and a resurgent al-Qaeda in the region.

Nonetheless, after a lot of introspection and collateral damage, the Obama administration is belatedly realising that it can do business with the ayatollahs in Tehran. Iran’s political influence in the region has exponentially increased and so has its military clout. Pro-Iran militia Hezbollah is the only fighting force that not only tottering Arab regimes but Israel also fears.

In this context the recent US-Iran interim agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme is the precursor to a larger understanding that would spell end of debilitating economic sanctions against Tehran. Resultantly, for the first time, the US administration has shown the gall to alienate its primary allies in the region, both Israel and Saudi Arabia.

However, to claim at this stage that Washington is switching allies in the Middle East will be a gross exaggeration. Nevertheless we are living in interesting times, where old post-colonial edifices are slowly but surely crumbling and new realities are emerging.

The Iranian foreign minister has already given a four-point formula – ceasefire, humanitarian assistance, intra-Yemeni dialogue, followed by a broad based government

The semblance of a thaw between Tehran and the west is an implicit recognition of the shifting sands. There is a grudging albeit belated recognition of Iran’s ascendency as a great civilisation and crumbling of effete Arab kingdoms and tin pot strongmen.

These visible changes are perhaps literally knocking at Islamabad’s door as well. But our ruling elite — both civilian and khaki — are still stuck in the old grooves and their obsolete strategic paradigms and alignments.

Pakistan is perhaps the only non-Arab Muslim country that can play an effective diplomatic role in Yemen. However, in order to do that it should not be seen as tilting too close to Riyadh by insisting upon dispatching its troops to Yemen, kowtowing to Saudi demands.

On the contrary, Islamabad should make concerted efforts to improve tattered relations with Tehran. There is a strong feeling that Pakistan, firmly in the western camp, is loathe to improve economic and trade ties with Iran.

The stalled Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is a case in point. Pakistan has been dragging its feet since President Zardari committed to build the Pakistan portion of the pipeline in February 2013. Petroleum Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who is the main proponent of the non-transparent LNG deal with Qatar, told the National Assembly a year ago that the project was off the table, citing international sanctions.

Now that there is an impending thaw between Washington and Tehran, hopefully Islamabad will not miss the bus again. With the exception of a few PML-N legislators in the parliament, the consensus was largely in favour of a diplomatic solution of the Yemen imbroglio.

The Iranian foreign minister has already given a four-point formula – ceasefire, humanitarian assistance, intra-Yemeni dialogue, followed by a broad based government. The prime minister’s Advisor on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz, after parleys with his Iranian counterpart, has also called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Islamabad is being overtly wooed by the US administration. The sale worth US$1 billion for Viper attack helicopters and Hellfire missiles has been approved by Washington. The IMF has given a thumbs up to the economy. Riyadh, with its earlier $1.5 billion largesse, perhaps was promising the moon in return for naval and air support, and ground troops, to fight in Yemen.

But in this backdrop Pakistan, despite the promise of goodies, did the right thing in consonance with the popular will to abandon plans (if any) to militarily intervene in Yemen alongside the Arabs. This would not only have gone against the tide of public opinion within the country but also against emerging international realities.