The hopes associated with the by-election of NA-246
The by-election on National Assembly’s vacant seat of Karachi, NA 246, is scheduled to be held on April 23, 2015. I see it as a very significant occurrence in our current political scenario. I am nobody to predict the future or the result of the election but as a student of politics and history, I would like to evaluate the possible outcomes and share them with my readers.
The constituency fell vacant after the resignation tendered by Nabeel Ahmed Gabol from MQM. Gabol had joined the party only recently after leaving Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) right before the general elections in 2013. He has been an active politician since 1988 from Lyari, a town in South Karachi and a strong hold of PPP. He became a member of the Provincial Assembly from the area (then PS-85) when Benazir Bhutto won the National Assembly seat of the same area (then NA-190) in 1988. He has always been in the limelight of affairs and served as the deputy speaker of the Sindh Assembly from 1993 to 1997. In 2002 he was awarded the coveted ticket by PPP of the National Assembly seat, NA-248 (previously NA-190); a seat PPP has never lost. He won the seat twice, in 2002 and then in 2008 with a thumping majority. He was a federal minister from 2008 to 2011. When he finally left PPP over reasons best known to him only, he lost this seat in the general elections of 2013. Contesting the seat from MQM’s platform, Gabol couldn’t even manage five percent of the votes polled. However, he was accommodated for changing loyalties by MQM and was awarded the ticket of NA-246, the home ground, or the “Lyari” of MQM. He won the seat that MQM has never lost.
The by-election on April 23 will be contested in the backdrop of the current Karachi Operation carried out by Rangers. MQM has been loud and clear in its protests, complaining that the operation is targeting their party unjustly. Whether the targeting is actually unjust or not, we have witnessed a raid by the Rangers on the party’s office among other incidents where MQM surely has been on the receiving end. We are also aware that this is not the first operation of its kind in Karachi. The last time Rangers and army did a similar operation in Karachi was in 1992 when the prime minister of our country was Nawaz Sharif.
MQM claims that the operation killed innocent people of the city who were workers of the party as well. We did see a significant improvement in the law and order situation after that operation and we are experiencing an improvement in the same as a result of the current operation as well, but that is not the matter of discussion here. The fact that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has ordered the operation (even if it wasn’t his choice) and multiple statements in the media regarding taking Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah on board means that MQM is finding itself in a corner once again. The recent emergence of PTI as a political force in the country and especially in Karachi and the fact that they are taking MQM front-on also implies that it has developed into a “MQM vs all” situation for the first time in 20 years.
Three parties are contesting the by-elections to be held on April 23, with Jamaat-e-Islami being the third in addition to MQM and PTI
Three parties are contesting the by-elections to be held on April 23, with Jamaat-e-Islami being the third in addition to MQM and PTI. These three parties were also the top three finishers on May 11, 2013. Although there is no denying that Jamaat-e-Islami has a vote bank in Karachi and that they were able to win five National Assembly Seats from Karachi when contesting on the combined platform of MMA in 2002, in my humble opinion the main contest is going to be between PTI and MQM. PTI would have definitely gained strength if their coalition partners in KPK government, JI, were jointly contesting this seat with them.
I heard somebody saying that if MQM wins this seat, it will not be news. Although, in my opinion, MQM winning this seat is much more probable, still I tend to disagree that it will not be significant news on our political playfield. In the current scenario, when MQM appears to be in a political isolation, a victory will go a long way in stabilising the party which no doubt is in a disarray. It will also help them silence those who allege that MQM can only manage to win in Karachi by rigging. For MQM, influencing the results of this election would be very difficult as we are expecting Rangers to monitor the election directly. Winning this seat now will give them a lot of breathing space and some legitimacy to their previous mandates. It will also be a big blow to the tall claims of PTI which is going to be on the electoral ground for the first time since May 11, 2013 elections (the election that they think were systematically rigged). Their claim of rigging will be seriously challenged and dented.
On the contrary, if PTI wins this seat, it will be a serious setback for the already under pressure MQM. A PTI win here will do what the “Operation Clean-up” couldn’t do years ago. The party might literally breakdown. PTI will ride the tide and boost their morale which has been dropping ever since August last year when they took to the roads for the “Azadi” March. It will give a substantial weight to their claim that “change is already here”.
As each day passes, and events unfold in Karachi and Islamabad, the stakes for both parties are increasing. I am foreseeing that losing will not remain a choice for either of the parties. In that case, looking at the past, whichever party senses defeat might want to boycott the election. The fear that this might be even more detrimental to their respective positions will leave wanting the elections postponed as the only option. This makes the situation very scary as the reason for postponing the elections could only be searched in the law and order situation of the city. If we have people killed in the city over political animosity, the system will have to a stop for the sake of human lives. If the elections aren’t held it will be a great favour to the party which might not have much hope from the results of April 23. Hence, if MQM believes strongly that they will hold on their home seat, they must avoid conflict. They will have to change their alleged ways of contesting elections. So if by-elections are held on April 23, irrespective of who wins, we will see change and that too in a positive way in the land of pure.