Pakistan’s involvement in Yemen

By
Yasmeen Aftab Ali
-
19
227

A complex solution of a simple problem

 

 

Let me recount some facts and  opinions here. The concluding analysis will become self-evident. If Pakistan still acts the foolish clown, it will deserve to fall flat on its face and smash its nose.

Usually, Saudi Arabia has dealt with ‘unsuitable governances’ through a remote control. Yemen is an exception. Houthis, controlling Northern Yemen, are trained and equipped by Hezbollah, reportedly, and have their strings pulled by Iran. Al-Monitor says, “Their biggest takeover was of the Yemeni port city of Hodeida and the shoreline toward the southwest coast of Saudi Arabia and the Ras Isa marine terminal. This takeover is of great strategic importance. For the first time, Iran has a foothold in the southern gate of the Red Sea, literally on the Bab el-Mandab Strait, which separates Asia from Africa. The western coast of Yemen is also adjacent to the western coast of Saudi Arabia, with all its strategic facilities posing a double threat: to freedom of movement in the straits and to Saudi security.”(December 11, 2014) This scenario has pushed Israel towards Saudi Arabia owing to the desire to curb Iranian action. Egypt supports Arab action owing to Bab el-Mandeb Straits that is seen as a threat to her economy. Is this really about a ‘bitter battle for the oil route at Bab el-Mandab as claimed by Ahmed Mohamed Nasser Ahmed, a Yemeni political analyst and former member of Yemen’s National Issues and Transitional Justice Working Group at the National Dialogue Conference. (Mint Press,  April 2, 2015) The fact is that the masses are frustrated in Yemen. However, Lieutenant General (Retd) Talat Masud rightly points out, “Iran is backing the Houthis which are strong enough to overthrow the Yemen regime but do not enjoy enough support to rule the whole country. This, now, is the real challenge of the region where foreign intervention, armed insurgencies or popular movements are capable of removing tyrants, but the vacuum that follows creates other monsters.” (April 1, 2015)

In the middle of this crisis came the breakthrough of Iran nuclear deal. This will lead eventually to more than $110 billion dollars a year in sanctions relief. This will not happen overnight. It may take months to happen. Iran’s reintroduction in oil markets and financial systems cannot be viewed with approval by Israel — yet another reason for pushing her in Saudi Arabia’ camp over the Yemini issue.

This is a mess, anyway you look at it, and Pakistan owing to its closeness with Saudi Arabia is right in the middle of this, like it or not. Hilary Synnott, in her book “Transforming Pakistan: Ways Out of Instability” traces the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan way back to 1969 when pilots from Pakistan had piloted Saudi jets aimed at repulsing Yemeni  ingress in Saudi Arabia. Over time, closeness between both nations has deepened. Signing of Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline was a smart move by former President Asif Ali Zardari in 2013 in an effort to bring some degree of balance in the relationship of Pakistan between Saudi Arabia and Iran.  In year 2014, Saudi Arabia lent a mammoth $1.5 billion to “shore up Pakistan’s foreign reserves”. Also 750 to 800 Pakistani servicemen are believed to be in Saudi Arabia but none are combat troops, a Pakistani official told Reuters.” (Al-Arabiya, April 1, 2015)  Arif Rafiq in his piece in Foreign Policy reminds us, “Pakistan received a grant of $1.5 billion — described by the Pakistani finance minister as a “gift” with no strings attached.” (April 1, 2015)

A statement that turned out to be fallacious as there is nothing as a free lunch in the world.

Pakistan-Saudi Arabia relationship notwithstanding, Pakistan must step back and view this situation emerging in Yemen with complete dispassion. “Pakistan shares a 565-mile-long border with Iran and relations between the two countries have long been rocky. If Iran starts to view Pakistan as an active adversary, it has many opportunities to cause trouble across the border that Sharif cannot afford.” (FP, April 1, 2015) Can Pakistan afford active confrontation with Iran at this point in time or can Iran afford the same? The answer is no to both. However, should Pakistan be foolish enough to send its forces into Yemen, this may prompt Iran to use the Afghanistan border to create instability within Pakistan’s borders.

 

In determining its position, Pakistan will do well to balance out the new relationship dynamics between Iran and USA that promise to lead to an increased convergence between Iran, US and India in the region. The regional dynamics are changing. Remaining neutral in this conflict will be next to impossible for Pakistan given the  relationship outlined above and this is just the tip of the iceberg. It boils down to the question of not whether Pakistan will get embroiled but how.  Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has called for a joint session of Parliament. In this joint session, the extent of Pakistan’s involvement will be discussed. Pakistan’s Parliament needs to understand that the Huothis are not attacking Saudi Arabia. There is nothing on ground to indicate they have the ability to do so. Why then the furour that the Holy Places are under threat? General Mirza Aslam Beg, former COAS Pakistan, in his mailed article titled “Causes and Consequences of Yemen Conflict” states, “At the moment, the threat to Saudi Arabia is real which is mainly from within. The Saudi Wahabi dissidents, numbering over 10,000, are the second largest component of ISIS in Syria/Iraq. Their only mission is to overthrow the Saudi monarchy. The southern region of Saudi Arabia is also vulnerable to Yemeni militants. There is no military threat to Saudi Arabia as such, nor there is a threat to the House of God.”

 

Manzar Qureshi, a UK based analyst, says, “With fast diminishing western and USA’s global dominance, economically, politically and militarily, the world has become multi-polar and it’s beyond US and western powers to keep control. It’s about time to have a new charter which guarantees world peace, justice and development and do away with the colonial regimes that are used as instrument for the perpetuation of neo-colonialism.”

 

Pakistan must coordinate with the GCC countries and work towards diffusing the Yemini situation. Turkey having jumped into the fray may well be a part of the effort. Any other nation that can positively contribute towards settlement of the inflamed situation should be readily welcomed on board. Diplomatic support is the best support Pakistan can offer in light of a dangerous geopolitical situation and its own Shia-Sunni divided population. Pakistan must convince Iran to stop supporting Houthis in Yemen. There is one possible way to achieve this: using Yemen as a bargaining chip vis a vis Syria. This may be difficult to achieve but not impossible. All stakeholders must be on board on this. If US and Iran can achieve a breakthrough in the nuclear talks, so can Saudi Arabia and Iran on Yemen. The challenge for both countries will be to bring on board their hardliners. Tough but not impossible.

 

Let there be no doubt: any foolish and misguided decision by Pakistan to get involved militarily on Yemeni soil will have a severe backlash in the country against the government and even the Army. ‘The government will also face opposition on the issue from PPP, PTI, ANP, MQM, JUI-F and even JI. The question is already being asked if the prime minister can put the lives of Pakistani soldiers in jeopardy to repay favours done to him by Saudi royalty.’ (Editorial, Pakistan Today, March 29, 2015)  The Parliament must deliberate on the issue keeping in view long-term interests. Pakistan’s interests.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. Thoughtful, Though Provoking and Enlightened Article. I completely agree with your Concept of Conflict Resolving Role For Pakistan. Unfortunately, the present Goverment does not have Full Time Foriegn Minister with Intellectual and Diplomatic Credentials.

  2. Good article and balanced approach for conflict resolution. Well ongoing Yemin situation has put another historic event on back burner, the Iranian nuclear deal with US and other western countries. Yasmin Ali , put us wise on the affects of this deal,how it wud go to change the regional dynamics particularly what r the options left for Pakistan to benefit herself instead of losing something.

  3. As the leader f the Islamic world with Worlds fourth Largest Nuclear weapons if Pakistan is not helping KSA in times of need, it will e like a betrayal of a best friend

    • SA is asking favour from a friend who can't give it. Will you put your friend in such a situation? Pakistan is involved in its own wars in NW areas and can't divert its attention from it. Isn't it wrong to ask from us?
      As for nukes. they are meant for Pak protection and noone else. Having nukes doesn't mean that we should jump into every war. Times have changed. There was a time when SA was viewed positively in Pak. Not anymore. Everyone is aware of how SA fueled insurgency in Pak and you know it as well. We are not morally bound to help them. We can help ourselves and that's what we should do.

    • .
      You think "best friend" …
      They think "best paid servant" …
      .
      You may want to know that Egypt now also wants to think "best friend" …
      And Turkey's thoughts are turning towards "self respect" …
      .

  4. "Wil the prime minister put the lives of Pakistani soldiers in jeopardy to repay favours done to him by Saudi royalty " writer has asked the most pertinent Question, and he will do it.

  5. The articles on the Yemen crisis have kept the "sending of Pak Army to SA" or not as a central theme. Almost every author has advised Pakistan to desist it for various reasons. Foreign Policies of independent nations are based on their National Interests and Grand Strategies, especially when they have nuclear capability. Sending army to SA will depend on whether it is to support the House of Saud or the people of Saudi Arabia, and how will that effect Pakistan's role in the changing scenario of the Middle East. This is an opportunity for Pakistan to take on the leading role as a secular arbitrator, between SA and Iran and other players in the region.

  7. I take issue with this article:
    "In determining its position, Pakistan will do well to balance out the new relationship dynamics between Iran and USA that promise to lead to an increased convergence between Iran, US and India in the region"

    Pakistan had better make nice with iran. and broker an alliance with iran and Saudi Arabia so that there is a Pak-Iran-Saudi convergence. This is what will cause peace in the region.

  8. Well writen, well researched, Yasmeen.

    Could you now throw in a bob or two on China's possible viewpoint on the Yemeni developments. Saudi support (no one's saying as much, yet) for radical Islamic militancy on the one hand,(China hates), Irani oil and gas on the other, (China loves), plus traditional bonds with Pakistan also to be considered, (China loves/hates), could there be more uncertainty waiting in the wings for all concerned.

    Who's writing the script this time?

    Israel's possible 'go it alone' stance vs Iran's determination to 'go nuclear' is the real cauldron here, in my view. Are we too focussed on peripherals with Yemeni developments?

    I had given up. Your article teased out the case enough to re-ignite my interest.

    Thank you and keep up the good work.

    John C

  9. Dear Yasmeen

    You hit all the hot spots!

    There is also a side-show going on in Yemen, which cannot be ignored…..the Al-Qaeda factor. AQ relocated its corporate HQ from Afghanistan to Yemen and had left AFG completely, even before US forces did. Now fully settled and operational in Yemen, it has full (but invisible) support of Osama bin Ladin's tribe, Kindite Hadhrami. They never had (and still don't) have any plans to take over Sana'a, but needed a base to consolidate and operate from and Yemen provides a perfect platform for them. They thrive on conflict terrain and also have to settle their own score with Saudis.
    I wonder if King Salman is able to sleep even a wink these days.

    The good days of the Saudi kingdom simply cannot continue like before. Things are heating up too much and too soon. Pakistan is already bracing itself to be part of the action, in case anybody has any doubts. Not sure whether whether its out of compulsion or choice, but its clearly there. Your warnings are likely to fall on deaf ears – as
    the "al-faeda" factor is really the bottom line.

    Having done a lot of field work in Yemen on advocacy against early marriages on a USAID project, I am familiar with that wild landscape. Always had to carry a gun for self defense. Also had some fun negotiating with a terrorist group to get release of a Yemeni colleague, who had been kidnapped by them, for working in a US non-profit. In my humble opinion, Yemen must be the most anti-US nation in the world. I used to attend Juma prayers as a "friendly Canadian"!

    By the way, as a failed state, Pakistan is #10 to Yemen's #8 in the world….so not too far behind, with only Haiti at #9 separating them. Who knows, after rolling the dice with the Saudis, Pakistan may even get ahead in the game.

    Siraj

  10. Well said.

    I love the term AL FAEDA ,coined by you for Pakistani Leaders.

    OUR FOREIGN POLICY IS ESSENTIALLY AL FAEDA AS IT SUITS NAWAZ AND ZARDARI.

    NOT AS IT SUITS PAKISTAN.

    I THINK WE HAVE LOST OUR DIGNITY AND SELF RESPECT COMPLETELY BECAUSE OF PERSONAL BENEFITS AND PECUNIARY ADVANTAGES.

  11. There is nothing complex about it. Saudia has helped us, and now they are asking for our help. OK, Arabs can't hunt endangered birds. Sooner of later, we shall have floods or earthquakes. We are emotional, irrational, but we are not moochers, it is our tradition not to return an empty plate, besides our forces shall stay within boarders. Their money, our man power, each has plenty, looks like a fair trade. There is a reason why Pakistan has the largest UN contingent. At least half of Pakistan supports some form of Saudi assistance. In the past 40,000, Pakistanis solders protected Saudi oil fields. It was a lucrative assignment.

      • I agree with the opinions expressed in the article on the Yemen and SA issue. We should not throw ourselves in hot water, all countries compose their foreign policies for the well being of their people and land but we Pakistan’s follow our emotions.

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