Too much at stake
A lot depends on the high-level Pakistani delegation currently visiting Saudi Arabia, but going by press reports ahead of the visit, it seems the government is just as willing to join the Saudi alliance as Riyadh is to have Pakistan’s diplomatic and military cover. In fact, had it not been for public and media pressure – not to mention some circumspect minds in parliament – it might have been just as easy for Nawaz to say yes as the Saudis, and indeed the N-league, had expected. The matter, unfortunately, is not merely as simple as siding with either Riyadh or Tehran in a fast degenerating regional civil war.
The decision becomes more complicated as the bombing begins hitting soft targets like civilian shelters. Whether or not any Pakistanis have become part of the so called collateral damage remains to be seen, but there will definitely be consequences as investigations are carried out. For Islamabad, the main concern must therefore be evacuating Pakistani nationals still caught in the cross-fire. It was extremely irresponsible of the government to publically weigh the decision in the first place. The immediate emphasis should have been on locals still trapped in Yemen. It tells a lot about the leadership’s sense of priorities that it was far more eager to calm the Saudis than consider the safety of Pakistanis.
It is also important to keep a check on the religious lobby’s rhetoric at such a sensitive time. Efforts are clearly underway to spin the crisis into a scenario where Islam’s holiest places are under threat. There is an increasing effort to associate the House of Saud with the heart of Islam. And if the government is seen leaning towards this point of view, which would mean taking sensitive political and military decisions on doctored information, there will definitely be a price to pay in the long run. The Saudis, just like the Iranians, are engaged in a large indirect war to salvage influence over the region. This battlefield spans the areas of Iraq, Syria and now Yemen. Much of the Middle East that followed the Sykes-Picot Agreement is already a part of history as post-mandate boundaries become increasingly blurred. Pakistan cannot afford to take part in such a war, especially since none of its interests are at stake, and it is involved in an existential war of its own. Islamabad is better placed to use its unique position to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia closer. Taking parts, especially at the cost of alienating a crucial and friendly neighbour, is not in Pakistan’s interest.