More missed budget targets
It is interesting that after tax collection, GDP growth, deficit, manufacturing, etc, the commerce ministry, too, is making sure it is not left behind in the matter of missing crucial budgetary targets. Exports are not likely to touch the $27 billion target, according to press reports, and will remain stuck in the $24-25 range where they have stagnated for the four to five years. Some of the ruling party’s more loyal mouthpieces are already blaming dry credit markets – in the wake of the Great Recession – that affected Pakistan’s commerce as well. But even so much as a cursory glance across regional economies – India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand – is enough to show how others have progressed while we have not.
The government will have none of this reality check, of course. Both the finance and information ministries have been busy marketing a much improved economy that does not seem to exist anywhere save their collective imagination. Tax collection is inadequate, growth is off the mark and deficits are bloating while a dubious exogenous injection stabilised the rupee and falling Brent caused prices to drop at home as well. And in typical N-league style, the Sharifs and their trusted deputies spun the facts as if some great economic relief was being provided to the masses.
The reasons for this failure are manifold. Number one, of course, is the inability to add value to the export basket. Even in the 21st century, we remain a country that sells clothes and fruits at best. Little surprise, in hindsight, that the slump in large scale manufacturing never bothered the Sharif administration too much. Then there is also the nepotism that always comes with this bunch. From the commerce ministry itself to the WTO delegation in Geneva, all important slots have gone to loyalists. As usual, there is little, if any, consideration for competence. Resultantly, the ministry is run by people who do not understand the nuances of international trade and delegations comprise people who cannot argue the country’s case. If this is the development model that the Sharifs wished to employ – via the Dars, Dastgirs and Asifs – then indeed things are going according to plan. But if the country’s wellbeing is any benchmark, the economy is way off the mark. And unless competent and credible people take over crucial ministries, things are not likely to get any better.
