Another petro jihad?
Wisely, the government has decided to stay away from Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, at least for the time being. But the sober proposition – that Pakistan is better placed to play the role of facilitator than a party to the conflict – came only after the prime minister assured the Saudis of Pakistan’s support, at least if the official Saudi press is to be trusted. It seems that the onslaught that followed, not just from seasoned politicians and analysts but also, according to reports, from some in the military, made Nawaz Sharif reverse his decision.
Finally, the long string of negotiations between Islamabad and Riyadh is beginning to become public. First it was Syria. But soon enough it was clear that Pakistan was unable to honour the Saudi request of training and arming Syrian rebels, even if Nawaz Sharif was in power. And now it’s Yemen. Sana’a comes after enhanced Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria. In the latter, especially, it also meant undoing Saudi sponsored rebel advances of more than two and a half years. That is why Riyadh is so worried about developments in Yemen. And that, of course, is why it is counting on all the help it can get, especially from trusted, and militarily advanced, friends in Pakistan.
But going the Saudi way at this point not only amounts to unnecessarily stirring the Middle East pot from so far away, it also risks permanently damaging relations with Iran. Remember the Iranian-Saudi proxy war has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives in the Middle East, especially since the Syrian civil war degenerated. They are definitely going all in, and many alliances have been revised in the process. Even the long-enduring Saudi-American equation has come under pressure. Washington caught Riyadh raising the sectarian and militant temperature in Syria, and has moved closer to Iran since the nuclear negotiations began. Therefore blindly following the Saudis now would isolate Pakistan not just regionally, but internationally as well.