Another petro jihad?
Wisely, the government has decided to stay away from Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, at least for the time being. But the sober proposition – that Pakistan is better placed to play the role of facilitator than a party to the conflict – came only after the prime minister assured the Saudis of Pakistan’s support, at least if the official Saudi press is to be trusted. It seems that the onslaught that followed, not just from seasoned politicians and analysts but also, according to reports, from some in the military, made Nawaz Sharif reverse his decision.
Finally, the long string of negotiations between Islamabad and Riyadh is beginning to become public. First it was Syria. But soon enough it was clear that Pakistan was unable to honour the Saudi request of training and arming Syrian rebels, even if Nawaz Sharif was in power. And now it’s Yemen. Sana’a comes after enhanced Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria. In the latter, especially, it also meant undoing Saudi sponsored rebel advances of more than two and a half years. That is why Riyadh is so worried about developments in Yemen. And that, of course, is why it is counting on all the help it can get, especially from trusted, and militarily advanced, friends in Pakistan.
But going the Saudi way at this point not only amounts to unnecessarily stirring the Middle East pot from so far away, it also risks permanently damaging relations with Iran. Remember the Iranian-Saudi proxy war has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives in the Middle East, especially since the Syrian civil war degenerated. They are definitely going all in, and many alliances have been revised in the process. Even the long-enduring Saudi-American equation has come under pressure. Washington caught Riyadh raising the sectarian and militant temperature in Syria, and has moved closer to Iran since the nuclear negotiations began. Therefore blindly following the Saudis now would isolate Pakistan not just regionally, but internationally as well.
The hesitant Pakistani response is raising eye browse in the Saudi public opinion. I can only imagine the negative impact of that on future Saudi-Pakistani ties. Remember, Pakistan has always enjoyed a favorable treament within Saudi. Some reknowned political analysts have claimed that the Pakistani nukes were only possible with Saudi money. With this latest development, Saudis are feeling a stab in the back by the thought to be brothers. Thnx Pakistan for nothing.
I think being a Pakistani, we need to play role as arbitrator first then we will decide to be a party in this game. But in the basis of our relations with Saudis, it is need to keep in mind that we Should not leave Saudi Arabia alone.
While Saudi sosurces insist that five Muslim countries including Egypt and Pakistan expressed interest in wanting to participate in the gulf-led military coalition against Huthi, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif states categorically Pakistan has made no decision as yet to participate in the Yemen conflict. He added "Should we need to commit troops, the parliament will be tken into confidence". At the same time, he insisted that that Pakistan will defend Saudi Arabia's territorial integrity at all costs.
With such contradctory statements made by Pakistani and Saudi Arabian sources, it is not very difficult to determine whom to believe.
Analysing Khawaja Asif's statements, we conclude that while he has clearly owned up to commitment to Saudi Arabia's territorial integrity. However, on the question of our troops doing actual fighting in Yemen, all he is saying is that the government has made no such decision as yet, and in case a decision is made to that effect, the parliament will be taken into confidence. And that means he is not altoether ruling out the possibility of our forces getting involved in actual combat in Yemen.
A capable leader of integrity would disclose his plans honestly, with full confidence that trusting him to take decisions in the best interests of the country and nation, the masses will support him. However, knowing the lack of trust from the masses, and additionally because their plans are mostly not in the best interests of the nation, our leaders tend to be devious, lack the courage to disclose their plans in full and with full clarity, but release these in bits and pieces, keeping these deliberately vague, to enable their misuse. Like while insisting on playing defensive role, Pakistani forces may get involved in attack on Yemen, claiming that it was a defensive attack conducted on the priciple that "attack is sometimes the best method of defence."
Also, in view of the calibre and prioities of our Parliamentarians, one is unfortunately not in a position to trust them for safeguarding the intersts of the country and the nation. Quoting a recent example, at a time when the country is engaged in a war against intolerance, militancy and terrorism, and knows the source of it all, Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haideri of JUI(F)got elected to the prestigious position of Deputy Chairman Senate.
At a time when Pakistan is fighting the war against intolerance, militancy and terrorism, which are threatening its very existence, it would hardly be sensible to add another factor to it by getting involved in proxy wars waged by Saudi Arabia and Iran in order to expand their area of influence. Having enjoyed Saudi hospitality for nearly a decade, Nawaz Sharif may feel obliged to return the favour which could bring Pakistan some dollars, and see some more dollars transferred elsehwere under the table.
Pakistan simply cannot afford to get emboiled in a Sunni-Shia conflict which could create additional problems in Pakistan in addition to endangering the lifes of thousands of Pakitani presently stranded in Yemen. People do not really do not expect much from politicians but they do have a high regard for the armed forces, and being in the driving seat on most matters lately, one hopes and prays that the army chief will resist presssure or persuasion to involve Pakistan in a controversy with disastrous consequences for the country.
Being the strongest militarily, and the only nuclear power in the Muslim world, Pakistan is ideally placed to play a role as a mediator in ending this Saudi-Iran war which has done great harm to the Ummah. However the current low-calibre, timid and corrupt Pakistani leadership is hardly capable of playing a role like that.
Karachi
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