Far reaching implications
Afghanistan’s Ghani-Abdullah duo could not have prepped their US visit any better. They understood both the need to mend fences with Pakistan and the importance of bringing China on board with regard to the peace process. And, of course, they signed the BSA with the Americans; something that was at the centre of their friction with Karzai, and kept Washington from finalising its drawdown schedule for a good two years. Therefore, they go to Washington after having placed their pieces on just the right squares. And though Kabul is forced to talk economics whenever possible with the Americans – since Washington green lights practically all of Kabul’s assistance – security concerns must take the front seat for the time being.
The focus, therefore, will be on sequencing the troop withdrawal. There, too, Ghani brings a pleasant change from Karzai’s days. President Obama seems to want Afghanistan back to “normal embassy level security” by the time he leaves his office; to put the shine on his anti-war legacy. But he clearly wants larger numbers for longer, which means slowing down the drawdown. Kabul considers it necessary, not just in face of another Spring Offensive, but also so the Afghan army can be trained better and faster. The latter will be crucial for long term peace and security.
Pakistan, too, wants the pace slowed, so it seems there is all-round convergence of interest. Zarb-e-Azb would no doubt benefit if there are US boots across the Durand Line, especially since the Afghans are already engaging on that side. But they will have to be careful about the impact on negotiations being stitched together by Beijing and, to an extent, Islamabad. The Taliban made US withdrawal key to talking – something that sat well with Karzai – whereas Ghani’s administration seems to want talks and more foreign troops at the same time. At least towards the end of Afghanistan’s last administration, the two positions contradicted each other. How the Taliban react now remains to be seen. But all important pieces seem in place for more a meaningful government-to-government advance, which will affect more than just AfPak players.
