Raid on 90

It was September 27 last year that an agitated Altaf Hussain, in a video-linked address to his supporters, threw the gauntlet down the army’s way by abusing its higher ups to the level of DG designate, ISI; leaving the seat saying, ‘it’s better I finish here, lest I abuse someone else also’. Good decision but not the best. He should have finished off a bit earlier. It may have helped. It may have…

Sindh Rangers’ sting operation at MQM’s HQ on March 11 is a significant development which many could not think of just a while ago. But if it is a pointer to what is in store for MQM or its beleaguered leadership in the days to come, it has also given birth to too many crucial questions, answers to which must be found before we go any further.

Why the operation?

In the long list of questions, this is apparently the easiest one to answer; for an MQM supporter it is a manifestation of the bias and hatred that exists at the state level (army, establishment) against the Muhajir community; for a critic and onlooker this was the long overdue step in the long and arduous journey towards peace in Karachi – which is a hostage to violence of different hue for the past about three decades. Outside the MQM there is a general consensus and perception that this party is at the heart of everything that is wrong with the city and if a lasting solution is to be found to the woes of this city, it will invariably start from this party. However, this is not the only perception about this metropolitan city. It is commonly believed – and the Supreme Court has confirmed – that almost all the political parties operating in Karachi maintain militant wings. The onus for all this is, however, placed on the MQM as it is considered to be the pioneer group which introduced systematic violence in the mega city as a legitimate means for political dominance and then maintaining its forceful hegemony over there.

To the independent observers and apologists of other political parties as well as majority of the city’s dwellers, maintaining militant wings is a necessary evil which these parties must adapt to in order to survive in the lawless land called Karachi. Most of the domestic and foreign academics and researchers also agree that the root cause of the city’s violence lay in MQM or its leadership and unless that is reformed, no panacea can be found to its ills

The timing

It was Bilawal Bhutto Zardari who on Oct 6, 2014 tried to take up Altaf Uncle’s challenge on the Army’s behalf and vowed to make life a living hell for him. But strangely, the army itself didn’t budge. It was a very calculated move by the PPP leadership to extend a helping hand to the army. There were some very solid reasons behind this: 1) PPP thought that after the failure of PTI’s dharna, the establishment had run out of options and needed a political ally, 2) a phase of détente with army would recuperate the dying PPP, 3) MQM’s loss will be PPP’s gain in Sindh politics, and 4) if army accepted the friendship offer, it will again make PPP a relevant political force on the national scene.

Apparently, it seemed a bit surprising when the army didn’t reciprocate the goodwill offer from a political party against a group which had brought it in the line of fire for no obvious reasons. But it is now becoming clear that it had designs of its own, the most important aspect of which was not to be seen in cahoots with the stigmatized political forces in any cleanup operations which were to bring real relief to the people; be it in North Waziristan or Karachi; South Punjab or Baloshistan. Though some analysts initially tried to link March 11, Nine Zero operation with MQM not supporting Nawaz Sharif’s government in senate elections, reality seem to be other way round. The timing was more to do with the election of the Chairman, Senate which compelled PPP to side with MQM (at least till March 12, when their candidate was elected with consensus) and be identified with the forces that were responsible for playing havoc with Karachi’s peace since long; you see, they were partners in crime. Or how could they (the PPP) side with a criminal gang like MQM? This is the question that is on everyone’s mind at the moment.

Reaction

Despite the sense of relief that is being felt after the Nine Zero raid among different strata of society, it is pertinent to ponder over what can be the reaction of the ‘targeted’ group, the Karachi inhabitants, public across the country and the political forces/parties in general.

As a sweeping statement, it will be compatible with previous historical experiments to say that, the MQM will generally oppose and resist any antagonistic action against its being. But the stories suggesting divisions and disagreements at the second tier leadership level cannot be ignored. Though, we may not see ‘defections’ on a grand scale, emergence of dissenting/rebellious voices cannot be overruled altogether. But much will depend on the consistency of the presently adopted policy and how the law enforcing agencies go about it. Contrary to the idea sold by the MQM so far, reaction of the ‘people’ of Karachi may not be that inimical. As for the rest of the people across the country, there is a general perception – whether right or wrong – against the MQM and they have already started showing their happiness and relief over the Tuesday Rangers’ action in Azizabad.

But it is the reaction of the political forces which will matter most and which will finally decide the fate of the current cleansing operation along with the last and most dangerous card that a desperate and beleaguered MQM leadership will likely play at the fag end. It goes without saying that the loss of MQM will be a gain of every other political party in the arena. But that doesn’t mean that their support to the military-led operation will come for granted. They, particularly the PPP, will probably move very cautiously; firstly, because they will try to make sure the establishment is serious and means real business this time; and secondly, they will try to guess what are the larger plans of the military.

Ethnic card and Political parties

Most of the political parties would like to – or they must – seek answers to the following questions before taking formal positions: a) is the army interested to solve the (long-term) three-decade old political problem of Karachi or it only wants to address the (temporary) law and order situation there?; b) is the army willing to reach out and seek the support of political parties or it is more interested in a go-it-alone policy?; c) will the action go down in history as the starting point of a policy of throwing out bad apples out of the political basket or the current initiative is used as another step forward to further malign political forces/parties and then chop their heads in the next phase?; and d) what is substantially different that will go beyond a simple search and destroy LEA’s operation? There are and can be many more auxiliary questions but answers to these must come to the fore before we lose the interest and go about life as usual once again.

It is because quelling a violent disorder through force is comparatively easier than salvaging a sinking titanic political ship. And that will be the next step once all this hullaballoo of LEA/Rangers’ action is over and slogans of political victimization (on ethnic lines) are raised. It is beyond any doubt that if Altaf Hussain managed to control the damage within reasonable limits and succeeded in creating enough doubt about the ongoing operation in the minds of the people, he will this time try to bounce back with the ethnic card openly which he has been hinting at for the last so many years. Besides its being unfortunate, that will have to be taken care of politically for which the law enforcement agencies and the army will need the help of political forces. Secondly, the political vacuum has to be filled by the political forces and no one else; hence they must be taken on board.

At the moment, lines are clearly drawn; in response to MQM’s appeals to Army Chief to take notice of the Rangers’ highhandedness, Corps Commander, Karachi visited its HQ on Wednesday (March 12) and appreciated those who had taken part in raid at MQM’s headquarters. Also, the production at a Karachi court of those arrested from Nine Zero (including handcuffed and blindfolded Aamir Khan) and their humiliating parade before the nation through media is also something that was considered unthinkable just a few days ago. The lifting of the moratorium on hangings in toto one day and the issuance of black warrant for Saulat Mirza the other day is also not a coincidence. Nor were the arrests of MQM’s workers in Zohra Shaid murder case or making public of the JIT report in Baldia Town fire case grind-of-the-mill occurrences that can be termed exercises in futility.

Word of caution

All these recent developments clearly show that a decision has been taken to introduce change to the 30-year long status quo of Karachi but whether the noose in being tightened around the neck of MQM as a whole or only those who are actually involved in heinous crimes, ranging from ransom to murder and extortion to torture? Though the net results will be different depending on the ultimate objective, the fight is going to be bitter in any case. The law enforcement agencies are asking; how and who gave refuge to convicted murderers and criminals at Nine Zero? But instead of answering this question Altaf Hussain has come out with an apparently irrelevant question of his own; how and who gave refuge to Osama bin Laden at stone’s throw from PMA, Kakul?

If this is any indicator to the unfolding scenario during the coming days, then we should brace ourselves for something awful, particularly from Altaf Hussain’s side, where greater national interests may be seen compromised at the altar of personal political gains. The army must make the matter inclusive for the political forces and resist the temptation of showing to the nation that it can do everything on its own. There are many fronts open simultaneously; any wrong move anywhere can bring catastrophic consequences somewhere else.

Three things should be kept in mind while handling the Karachi situation: 1) though just and ruthless LEA’s operations are necessary first steps to create a conducive environment, the problem is basically political which must be addressed and solved politically; 2) though the operations conducted by the Rangers and other LEA’s so far have been appreciated by the general public, at no point should the action appear to be party-specific and vindictive; and 3) though the MQM has for the time being adopted a toned-down posture, however to quote a French scholar, ‘the organization was violent in its rise; it will be more violent in its downfall’.