Scotland have never won a World Cup game or an ODI against one of the Full-Member nations. But as they watch the faltering steps of their sickly neighbour, they might conclude they have never had a better opportunity.
England, thrashed in Melbourne and Wellington, actually scored 19 fewer runs against New Zealand than Scotland and have, at this stage, the worst net run rate in the competition. They have looked devoid of confidence and uncertain what their best XI or their tactics should be. Most of all, they go into this match knowing that if they win, it will be no more than is expected, and if they lose, they will be pilloried. Already there are whispers over the future of coach, Peter Moores, and managing director, Paul Downton.
There should be a chasm between the sides. While England have the oldest first-class structure in the world and revenue in excess of £120m a year, Scotland have no first-class system and exist on an income of around £2.1m. While they have recently brought in central contracts for a core group of players, the top value is £30,000.
They also struggle for fixtures. England play them only once every two years, but no other Full Member has given them a fixture since the start of 2014. Not only does that render it hard for Scotland to gain the experience required of playing top-level international cricket, it makes it hard for them to gain the ranking points required to qualify for future World Cups.
For those reasons, their victory would be celebrated far beyond the borders of Scotland. It would undermine the credibility of the decision to reduce future World Cups to 10-team events and provide another reminder of what could be achieved if Associate nations were given better support by the ICC.
There is a wider context, too. This game takes place four years and a day after the earthquake that killed 185 people and devastated the city. Lancaster Park, the ground where this fixture would have been played, was one of the many buildings destroyed and the fact that this game takes place here at all is testament to the remarkable resilience of the people of Canterbury. Whoever wins, that should be celebrated.
Form guide
Scotland: LWLLW (last five matches, most recent first)
England: LLLWL
In the spotlight
The Scotland No. 4, Matt Machan, once opened the batting in the England U-18 side alongside Jos Buttler. Although a product of the Sussex system, he qualifies for Scotland through his mother and played a leading role in the seven consecutive victories in the World Cup Qualifier in New Zealand a year ago. He averaged more than 60 in List A cricket for Sussex in 2013 and will be no stranger to many of the England players. With scores of 86, 103 and 56 (against New Zealand) in his last five innings, the 24-year-old left-hander is in good form.
It is hard to remember now, but there was a time that Stuart Broad was viewed as an allrounder. That Test century against Pakistan in 2010 seems like another lifetime, however, and he has not passed 30 in an ODI since August 2007. His dismissal in Wellington – backing away and chipping to mid-off – had the hallmarks of a No. 11. He may be selected primarily as a bowler but, at a time when a young team is struggling, England require more of their senior players.
Teams news
Scotland are likely to keep faith with the same XI who fought back from a tough start to make New Zealand fight for a three-wicket win in their opening game. While tall seamer Alasdair Evans impressed in the warm-up games and would boost an attack that looks short of a fifth bowler, Scotland are wary of diluting their batting and may remain reliant on the likes of Machan and Richie Berrington to make up the overs.
Scotland (possible) 1 Kyle Coetzer, 2 Calum MacLeod, 3 Hamish Gardiner, 4 Matt Machan, 5 Preston Mommsen (capt), 6 Richie Berrington, 7 Matthew Cross (wk), 8 Josh Davey, 9 Rob Taylor, 10 Majid Haq, 11 Iain Wardlaw.
England may be tempted to make a couple of changes. Steven Finn, who conceded 49 from his two overs on Friday, looks especially vulnerable, with Chris Jordan pressing hard for selection. Jordan’s inclusion would also improve England’s fielding and lower-order batting. Gary Ballance, called into the side ahead of the first game of the tournament having not played a List A game since September, has looked some way off the pace and could be replaced by Alex Hales in the top three. Ravi Bopara also enjoyed a long session in the nets with bat and ball and might yet be considered.
England (possible): 1 Ian Bell, 2 Moeen Ali, 3 Alex Hales, 4 Joe Root, 5 Eoin Morgan (capt), 6 James Taylor, 7 Jos Buttler (wk), 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Chris Jordan, 10 Stuart Broad, 11 James Anderson.
Pitch and conditions
This game takes place on the same pitch on which West Indies scored 310 against Pakistan on Saturday. With longer boundaries square than straight, it also offers some pace, a little bit of seam and some spin, too. It is, in short, a fine pitch which rewards good cricket. There have been three first innings scores in excess of 300 in the five ODIs played here. While there has been some rain in Christchurch over the last 24 hours, it is expected to clear and give way to a largely dry, if not particularly warm, day.
Stats and trivia
Scotland have won both the ODIs they have played at Hagley Oval, during the World Cup Qualifier.
Calum MacLeod, the Scotland opening batsman, currently has the highest ODI score on the ground: 175 against Canada in January 2014.
England have been bowled out in 13 of their last 19 ODIs.
The sides have met three times in the past. England have won twice and one game fell victim to the weather.
Quote
“To play like we did was embarrassing. The fact we have to apologise to people about our cricket is not acceptable. Hopefully, in the next four games, we can put it right and start playing the type of cricket that everyone knows we can.”
Ian Bell is ready to make amends
“We’re enjoying the challenge of playing against Full-Member nations. We’re not meant to beat them, so there’s no pressure on us at all.”
Preston Mommsen, the Scotland captain
