NAP will be implemented gradually: Amir Rana
There has been forward movement, despite setbacks, but progress will be slow
The recent spike in terrorist attacks has called the effectiveness of the National Action Plan (NAP) into question. What was the purpose of hashing out 20-odd ‘game changer’ points when the security apparatus is unable to get a handle on terror attacks? Clearly the enemy has regrouped from the initial displacement and shock of Zarb-e-Azb, and is able to plan and strike at will. In such a situation, how do measures like establishing military courts and hanging convicts deter future attacks, especially when the on-site reaction is still too slow? To make matters worse, the security establishment was left with egg on its face since there was prior intel about most of the recent attacks.
Also, once again the Shi’a community has borne the major brunt of the attacks. And since they have been systematically targeted since long before the war against terrorism, the government needs to explain a viable plan of action to the public, one that ensures safeguarding lives and interests of minority communities.
Recently, despite the show of solidarity after Dec16, questions have begun doing the rounds about translating NAP into meaningful action. To make sense of the situation, DNA talked exclusively to prominent security and political analyst Amir Rana. He is an established authority on counter terrorism, counter extremism, and internal and regional security and politics.
Question: Though the government made strong claims of taking action against terrorists after the National Action Plan — agreed upon by military and civilian leadership — there is clear increase in terrorist attacks. The mosques and imambargahs of Shi’a Muslims, especially, are being attacked while the government looks clueless. How do you analyse the situation?
Amir Rana: The National Action Plan (NAP) only provides a counter terror framework to the government. Now there is a positive development as NAP is being implemented. However, the process is slow, but this was expected as for the first time in history the government and the security establishment are taking action against religious fanatics and militant groups.
There is a need to understand that a strategy needs to be adopted to counter the sectarian strife in the country
There are gaps in the implementation of NAP which need to be seriously plugged, while responses by government agencies and security forces need to be made more efficient.
When NAP experts presented their recommendations, we knew that the challenge was huge and the government and security forces would have to react to the threat which has assumed enormous proportions. We also understand that the terrorists would also respond with full force.
But it is good that for the first time intelligence-based operations were carried out against the militant groups across the country. So a reaction was expected.
Now as regards the question of mosques and worship places of the Shi’a being attacked, one must understand that minorities are always a soft targets and can be attacked easily as compared to other hard targets like security installations or government offices, which are normally heavily guarded. Smaller groups mostly attack soft targets and it is an old strategy adopted by militants. Sectarian attacks in Syria Pakistan and Iraq have similar patterns.
So if the worship places of the Shi’a are being attacked, it means that the militants are weakened and they choose soft targets to register their response. Sectarian attacks involve soft targets and smaller groups usually carry them out.
Q: Why has there been no action against sectarian outfits like ASWJ, etc, and why do people like Malik Ishaq still enjoy perks and shelter of government?
RA: There is a need to understand that a strategy needs to be adopted to counter the sectarian strife in the country. If the government goes after all sectarian outfits without differentiating between the peaceful sectarian outfits like Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), it could backfire and may further ignite sectarian strife in an already divided nation.
People like Ahmed Ludhyanvi detach them from militant forces. So action must be taken in stages and those who believe in peaceful political struggle need to be dealt with through political means. It could prove detrimental at this stage to take action against those having sectarian credentials but not holding arms. Militant forces rather need to be isolated and any support to their cause should be ceased.
So, under the strategy, in the first phase militants should be tackled, then non-violent actors need to be dealt with. The political forces should be handled cautiously and separately.
Q: Is there any discord between the military establishment and the civilian government regarding NAP’s implementation?
AR: The challenge is enormous. The responses from militants have to be countered. I think it is a huge achievement that for the first time you have developed a framework to counter the threat of militancy and there is clarity between the security and civilian leadership to crush the terrorist infrastructure, their safe heavens and sleeper cells. However, its implementation has grey areas and gradually they will overcome these roadblocks.
However, it is a simplistic view that the terror networks would be dismantled so easily. It would take time.
If the Supreme Courts strikes down the constitutional provisions allowing installation of the military courts, the court would have to provide an alternative mechanism of speedy trials of the terrorists
Q: Are you satisfied with the responses from federal and provincial governments about implementing the 20-points of NAP?
AR: There are good as well as poor responses to NAP recommendations. As far as the Quick Response Force (QRF) is concerned, Punjab has raised its first batch and more would come soon. However, there is no development on the federal government’s pledge for raising a QRF comprising 500 officials. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government is also far behind in this commitment while Balochistan has also raised its first batch. But there is also a need to improve the training and equipment of normal police. Though there is some development in intelligence coordination but it needs improvement. One must stay optimistic as positive signs are already there.
Q: Do you see harmony between civilians, army over the anti-terrorism agencies?
AR: It is good to see the necessary will and both the political and military leadership is determined to root out the menace of terrorism from our soil. There is also a clarity on the internal security strategy, which is also encouraging and there is development on points which could be easily implemented.
Moreover, the federal and provincial governments are also taking action against hate speech and seminaries and mosques are being monitored. The Friday sermons are also being observed. Likewise, action against banned outfits is being improved, while there is some action against terror financing. Military courts have been set up and cases are being transferred to them.
However, we can’t claim that all the 20 points of NAP are being implemented. Rather, implementation process would be gradual.
Q: What will happen if the judiciary strikes down 21st amendment to allow military courts? Do you see a reaction from the military?
AR: If the Supreme Courts strikes down the constitutional provisions allowing installation of the military courts, the court would have to provide an alternative mechanism of speedy trials of the terrorists. Also, there is a good development on terrorism cases and the disposal process is picking momentum, which is encouraging and reflects a realisation among the judicial circles of the gravity of the situation.
Q: Do you see any threat of military takeover as the army is slowly taking over all matters from the civilian authority? For instance, recently the apex committee in Karachi decided to take over the transfers and posting of police officials from the Sindh government.
RA: Yes, the threat of civil-military discord is inevitable if the civilian government fails to realise the threat and act accordingly as the security challenge the country is faced with is huge. Though NAP provides a national response to terrorism, it is the provincial government that will need to implement it.
When the country faces an existential threat and civilian institutions do not improve their responses, the powerful institution would obviously try to takeover affairs from them. Though the responses by Punjab and KP governments have been improved to fight militants, the Sindh government has miserably failed. So the army is asserting itself. However, this decision by apex committee regarding transfers and postings of police officials is not final yet. In such a situation, civilian institutions need to improve their performance.