The numbers tell the story
Karachi, known as the ‘city of lights’, has been turned into a city with severe law and order problems. Given that Karachi generates most of Pakistan’s tax revenue and is Pakistan’s largest city, this law and order situation affects the whole nation and Pakistan’s economy. In recent months, both the Pakistan’s People’s Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) have accused each other of bad governance and of contributing to the law and orderproblems in Karachi. MQM has claimed that under the PPP’s government Karachi has descended into chaos and killings have become commonplace. Further, theMQM claims that the PPP is deliberately killing people in Karachi along ethnic lines, in particular from the Urdu-speaking communities, as they are less likely to vote for the PPP. Contrary to this, the PPP claims that Karachi has always been a troubled city and that the PPP should not be solely blamed for the law and order situation. Some provincial members of the PPP have further claimed that Karachi is a ‘jungle’ and hence it is normal for it to have these law and order problems. PPP also claims that the MQM is itself responsible for the law and order problems in Karachi. Given the importance of Karachi, it is necessary that we take these accusations to data and find out whose government is to blame for Karachi’s law and order situation.
Using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) we can look at the number of people killed or injured as a result of terrorism and/or law and order problems. The database measures the number of casualties from terrorism over time, and thus can show the performance of different governments on reducing crime and terrorism. This data is available from 1991 to 2013. Between 1991 and 2013 there were three PPP-led Sindh governments, while the MQM had substantial control over Karachi through the local government and key positions in the Sindh government between October 2002 and February 2008. Even though the MQM had been on and off part of the PPP governments since 2008, they have not held key security positions nor have they held power through local governments. As such, post 2008 the PPP has been responsible for maintaining law and order and controlling the security apparatus in Karachi.
Table 1. Number of deaths and casualties due to law and order problems in Karachi
Source: Global Terrorism Database. Figures have been rounded to one decimal place.
The total number of people killed due to law and order problems in Karachi between 1991 and 2013 amounted to 2,701 and the number of casualties (killed or wounded) equalled 6,874. Tragically, over this sample period, the average number of people killed has averaged 9.8 per month and there has been an average of 24.9 casualties per month in Karachi due to law and order problems (Table 1). These figures don’t include extra judicial killings by the security forces, which the MQM accuses the PPP of.
Compared to the PPP governments, MQM government performed much better. Casualties and killings per month decreased to 16.7 and 5.3 respectively
In terms of law and order problems, PPP’s governments have performed substantially worse than other governments in Karachi. This is indicated by total killings and casualties which have both been substantially higher under the various PPP governments.
A significant number of the total deaths in Karachi have occurred during the PPP’s governments. To be exact, 71.5 percent of total killings in the last 20 years have happened under the various PPP governments. As a result, an estimated 1,933 people have been killed in Karachi during the PPP’s governments, while casualties have summed up to 4,522 during this time.
Moreover, under the PPP governments, killings per month have averaged 17.4, while casualties per month have amounted to 40.7. What is worse is that the governments of the PPP have progressively gotten worse. The average casualties’ rate has risen from 35 per month (Oct 1993 to Feb 1997) to a staggering 83.6 per month in the recent government. The average death rate has increased to 24.7 per month.
Compared to the PPP governments, MQM government performed much better. Casualties and killings per month decreased to 16.7 and 5.3 respectively. Furthermore, after taking out the aberration of the assassination attempt on Benazir Bhutto, the casualties’ rate and deaths ratefall to 10.5 and 3.0 per month respectively. This amounts to a decrease of 82.8 percent in killings per month, compared to the PPP governments. While every death and casualty is tragic and the government must try to eliminate them, the fact that law and order situation improved substantially in Karachi during the MQM era is commendable.
According to these numbers, killings and casualties per month have been significantly higher under the PPP governments. Compared to the MQM era, around 14.4 more deaths per month have taken place in Karachi under the various PPPs governments. Moreover, under the PPP government that was elected in 2013 this difference has increased to 21.7 deaths per month. This is about 823.3 percent increase in killings per month compared to the MQM era.
Total casualties were also much lower during the MQM’s rule from 2002 to 2008. During this time total number of people killed and casualties were 331 and 1050 respectively. The number of deaths drops to 190 if we take out the 141 people killed during the Taliban’s attempt to assassinate Benazir Bhutto in Karachi on 18th of October 2007. As the attempt on Benazir Bhutto was a one off incident and not representative of the MQM’s era, a common statistical method is to analyse data using the complete data set and separately after excluding the outliers.
Killings and casualties per month have been significantly higher under the PPP governments. Compared to the MQM era, around 14.4 more deaths per month have taken place in Karachi under the various PPP governments
Figure 1. People killed in Karachi due to law and order problems
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Figure 2. Casualties in Karachi due to law and order problems
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Figures 1 and 2 show the time series profile of the number of people killed and casualties between 1991 and 2013. The PPP’s governments have always seen killings and deterioration of law and order problems. It is also surprising, that deadly and sustained violence in Karachi was started during the PPP’s government in the 1990s. What is further tragic is that there has been an upward trend in killings in Karachi since 2008 under the PPP led governments.
In comparison, except for sporadic violence including the assassination attempt on Benazir Bhutto, the MQM’s era seems relatively peaceful. In fact, around 39 months (more than three years) saw no deaths in Karachi due to law and order problems during the MQM’s rule. This is unprecedented in Karachi’s recent history.
While it is unclear if the PPP government supports the killings in Karachi based on ethnic lines – which the MQM accuses it of – it is unequivocally clear that the PPP has presided over deteriorating law and order situation in Karachi. Further, the statements by some members of the PPP that Karachi is a ‘jungle’ are untrue; a more accurate statement would be that Karachi looks like a lawless jungle under the PPP governments. Violence in Karachi is not chronic but systematic of the PPP’s rule.
While the MQM’s era saw development and relative peace, this does not mean that the MQM does not have any responsibilities. In particular, the MQM must try and establish peace in Karachi. Also, all parties in Karachi should eradicate militant wings and work towards a progressive city through democratic means.
Given the importance of Karachi, it is crucial that the leaders both at the federal level and provincial level try and resolve Karachi’s law and order problems and provide it with a better future. This is not only important for Karachi but the whole nation.