And crisis of governance
Perhaps Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar, the expat politician from Glasgow, timed his resignation from the governorship of Punjab in a manner that it did not seem that he was abandoning a sinking ship. He had originally decided to quit back in November and had also conveyed his decision to the Sharifs.
But despite his differences — more so with Shahbaz Sharif and his prodigal Hamza — he did not want to time his departure with Imran Khan’s ongoing putsch against the government at the time. Notwithstanding the PTI chief calling it quits in the immediate aftermath of the December 16 Peshawar tragedy, the PML-N government seems even more beleaguered under the weight of its own incompetence.
Government’s media mangers tried to create an impression that Sarwar was asked to put in his papers after his recent statement openly deriding its perceived incompetence in domestic as well as foreign affairs. However the ex-governor told me that this was a spin given by Sharif’s media mangers despite the fact that as per his plans he had resigned on his own accord.
Sarwar, unlike other expats who behaved more like soldiers of fortune than politicians, has burnt his boats and intends to play a political role by staying put in Pakistan. If according to speculation he joins PTI, he could perform a useful role advising the party on how to improve its constituency politics in Punjab.
Sarwar claims that in the 2013 elections the PML-N government won wherever the party accorded tickets as per his advice. In this sense the former governor might not have been of much use for the ruling party while in office, but in the opposition camp he will be more damaging for its prospects in the next elections.
Sarwar’s exit, however, is symptomatic of the larger malaise afflicting the PML-N government. It is a crisis of governance now manifesting itself quite openly and everywhere.
Very overt and increasingly assertive role of the military under General Raheel Sharif, coupled with Imran Khan’s concerted campaign against the Sharifs, has inexorably damaged the PML-N brand.
As it is, any civilian government in Pakistan has very limited space to perform. But the present government, owing largely to its own ham handedness, has touched new lows.
Sarwar claims that in the 2013 elections the PML-N government won wherever the party accorded tickets as per his advice
The military, with its chief performing the role of a proactive foreign minister, is not only formulating foreign policy but also running it. Guarding the geographical frontiers is its job description. But owing to the existential threat of terrorism internal security has become its domain as well.
After formation of the military courts under the controversial 21st amendment in the constitution, it now has a foot in the door in judicial matters as well. Perhaps in a civilian dispensation the army has rarely been so unabashedly proactive as it is today. But partly owing to dint of circumstances and also as a result of incompetence of the government, its role is widely accepted.
Sharif, after winning the 2013 elections, had assumed albeit naively that he will continue from where he left in 1999. The fact that the country has inexorably changed and that there are new realities to contend with escaped his limited imagination.
His natural urge to dominate all institutions was nipped in the bud by his handpicked military chief within months of his assuming his post. Since his disastrous visit to India last May to attend the inaugural ceremony of Narendra Modi, it has been all downhill for the PML-N government.
Some analysts contend that Nawaz has also been a victim of the so-called Kayani doctrine, under which a civilian government is rendered so weak that the military can have its sway without bearing the burden of overtly ruling.
According to this thesis, former military chief General Kayani’s ISI chief General Shuja Pasha through Memogate inexorably weakened the Zardari government. Whereas the Sharifs were brought to their knees by the perceived shenanigans of the now retired ISI chief General Zaheer-ul-Islam last year.
Of course, some PML-N circles privately complain that Imran’s dharna had the tacit support of the establishment to cut the Sharifs down to size. Last year — end of August and early September — the Sharifs were on a very slippery wicket as a result of Imran and Qadri’s joint putsch.
Had the military wanted to, it would have not taken much to wrap up the system and call for elections under a new dispensation. Thanks to better sense prevailing things did not pan out that way.
The PML-N government, albeit much weakened, is still there. Gone are the days Sharif would say, ‘I will not take dictation’. Through sheer dint of circumstances the Sharifs have been forced to sign on the dotted line.
However, whatever space the government has leaves much to be desired. In the fields of managing the economy, administration, law and order and general governance, it is still ostensibly omnipotent.
But take the case of governance. It is a royal mess to say the least. The endemic energy crisis despite claims to the contrary has only worsened thanks to the ham handedness of the PML-N team.
Some analysts contend that Nawaz has also been a victim of the so-called Kayani doctrine, under which a civilian government is rendered so weak that the military can have its sway
Endemic electricity and gas shortages were already haunting the nation. But the historic oil shortages in an era of cheap and plentiful oil proved to be the traditional last straw. Instead of sacking the oil minister, the prime minister decided to make a few bureaucrats and PSO (Pakistan State Oil) officials as scapegoats.
Despite the enormity of the crisis, amplified by international credit rating agency Moody’s threatening to downgrade Pakistan’s credit rating, there is no evidence of any introspection in the corridors of power. Sharif of late has been visiting Murree along with his kitchen cabinet, giving rise to speculation that he is about to turn a new leaf.
But the complexion of his so-called kitchen cabinet accompanying him says it all: they are part of the problem rather than the solution. The prime minister is simply not willing to look beyond his family members, plus a few ‘piyaras’ (favourites), for solutions.
Take the case of Ishaq Dar the finance minister, virtual deputy prime minister and close confidant – all rolled into one. A hardworking and perhaps a well-meaning man, Dar does not brook any interference in what he considers his domain. As a result his imprint on matters like burgeoning circular debt and bankruptcy of PSO is inevitable.
According to some media reports the minister of water and power has been asked to concentrate solely on power related issues rather than on defence matters, his other portfolio. What wonders Khawaja Asif, or for that matter the vast team of advisors including the Sharif brothers in the power sector, has performed is not known.
In a parliamentary system a few heads in the cabinet are made to roll not only for the sake of efficacy but also as a cathartic political measure. But Sharif seems to be somehow reluctant to do that. And he can hardly blame anyone but himself for the inertia.
Things have come to such a pass that some analysts are urging the military chief to intervene and show the door to the PML-N government. This kind of extra constitutional intervention will be disastrous.
Nonetheless, if Sharif does not move soon to set his house in order, this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.