The US needs a peaceful Asia
Obama has visited India twice in his tenure and this time it was to commemorate the 66th Indian Republic day. Accepting the Indian invitation by the US president itself speaks much about the importance the US attaches to India. Across the border, it’s Pakistan, a US strategic ally in the war against terror, which is being dealt by the US Secretary of State with no personal visits by the American president. And when the war in Afghanistan is coming to its end, no top-level visits can be expected in the future – at least till the time Pakistan once again enters into the US strategic-security calculus.
At a time when Pakistan’s forces are busy on the western border fighting the militants, India is being offensive on the Line of Control and the working boundary. Firing took place even on the day Obama was having a tea with Modi, gossiping about the ‘South Asian Vision’.
The future vision of the South Asia based on connecting East Asia to Central Asia shared by Obama and Modi has a significance for Pakistan. Although Pakistan was not mentioned in the shared vision, it cannot be ignored or excluded from it given the geostrategic location it has for making the planned ‘connectivity’ a reality. Without Pakistan, the connectivity cannot be achieved as it is the only link connecting the east to the west. Also, its role in the future stability of Afghanistan is acknowledged by the US. Obama must know the leverage Pakistan has over Afghan politics. And without any stability in Afghanistan, no connectivity plans can be successful.
This strategic importance of Pakistan is one of the considerations for China to be closer to Pakistan. In this context, the peaceful relations between Pakistan and India are important
This strategic importance of Pakistan is one of the considerations for China to be closer to Pakistan. In this context, the peaceful relations between Pakistan and India are important. Realising the significance of peace, Obama must have asked Modi to resume the dialogue process as the conflict between the neighbours is one of the impediments for US strategic goals in Asia. When peaceful Asia is significant for the US, how it can help to bring peace?
As a first step, the US needs to understand Pakistan’s anxieties with regard to India’s border offenses and work for reducing tensions. It is true that the US has never been successful in resolving disputes between the two countries, yet it has always intervened when the subcontinent was near the brink of war. In 2001, the US role in the military stand-off between Pakistan and India was very significant; Musharraf’s threatening speech to use the nuclear weapon in case the conflict gets unmanageable forced the superpower to intervene. This was true even in 2008 Mumbai attacks when India alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba (leT) to be the attackers.
Even today, the risk exists of any future conflict between Pakistan and India. In Pakistan, there are certain elements with a large following, which control minds of the people with their anti-Indian slogans. And even in India, particularly after the rise of Modi to power, the right-wing groups and parties are very vocal. It seems that Modi wants to play tough with Pakistan. On his election campaign rally in Maharashtra last year, he said Pakistan got a fitting lesson and would not dare repeat its mistakes as their jawans had shut its mouth. Further, he said, “This is not the time for empty boli (talk) by them, but for goli (bullet) by our jawans,” Also, the RSS and such right-wingers have launched ‘Ghar Wapsi’ campaign aiming at converting Muslims and Christians back to Hinduism. Such moves and statements are no doubt provocative, aggressive and a sign of ‘belligerency’ by the Indian side. The recent attack on Pakistan’s boat and the continuous tensions over LoC and the working boundary are a continuous alarm-bell warning about the future conflict. In response to Indian aggressiveness, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that war with India was not an option, but that Pakistan would respond with “full force” to any attempt to challenge its sovereignty. Nawaz Sharif even wished India on its Republic Day — an attempt to break the ice in Pak-India grim relations.
When the US interests in the region are deeply linked with a peaceful South Asia, the US should provide its good offices, mediate or conciliate for reducing tensions between the neighbours and assist in resolving their long-standing disputes
It bears noting that India is being aggressive on the eastern border when Pakistan’s military is already stretched thin by its war against ‘home-grown terrorists’. Is this a policy of ‘sandwiching Pakistan’? If that is the case, things can get worse quickly. When right-wingers are active on both sides of the border there are new reasons to fear. If any low-level intensity conflict turns into a full-fledged war, there would be a chance that Pakistan depends on its nuclear arsenal. As mentioned above, even in military stand-off of 2001, Pakistan relied on its nuclear weapons as a deterrent. And this time, when its military is fighting on the western front as well as dealing with the internal security, using nuclear warheads as tools of war is more real.
The situation is worrisome not only for regional countries but also for the United States, which is packing up from Afghanistan. The US has high stakes in the Pak-India relationship. As Afghanistan’s future is dependent on Pakistan’s internal and external peace and vice-versa, the US cannot see Pakistan shifting its attention from the western to the eastern border. If any conflict takes place between Pakistan and India, the latter would naturally shift its fight against Taliban to the fight against India. The result would be disastrous for American interests in Afghanistan. Moreover, India being the fastest developing market would be badly affected by any such conflict, and that would send destructive shock-waves through India’s economy, thereby affecting US strategic partnership with it based on its rising economy. And a weakened India cannot be a check for China. Using India to challenge China had been the policy of past three American presidents, and that policy still continues. Also, the war-effects would be debilitating for Pakistan and Afghanistan.
When the US interests in the region are deeply linked with a peaceful South Asia, the US should provide its good offices, mediate or conciliate for reducing tensions between the neighbours and assist in resolving their long-standing disputes. The Obama administration has the opportunity to seek ways to reduce the chances of a future Indo-Pakistani crisis and to restore US credibility as a ‘reliable’ friend.
Pakistan on its part has taken some important steps in the aftermath of the Peshawar tragedy. The military courts are established, distinction between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban ended, the state policy in regard to Haqqani network has changed and Lakhvi is behind bars. Pakistan has laid the groundwork. Now it is for the India to cement the first brick of peace. And the US can play its role.