If India don’t win or tie or get a no-result on their Republic Day, and Australia Day, they will leave themselves with an unenviable task of needing to beat England with a bonus point and also making up a pretty significant difference between their and England’s net run-rate. Should India lose their net run-rate will fall from the current -1.356. If they are to make the final then, they will have to be better than England by at least 25%, and also go past their net run-rate of 0.481. Considering all that, it is a pretty big match that India enter on Monday.
Good news for them is, Australia are through to the final already, and if they are going to let up or experiment now might be the time. Bad news is, Australia are unbeaten the whole summer, and India have won nothing. The last time India lost three ODIs in a row was way back in February 2012, in the triangular series in Australia. They came close in South Africa and New Zealand in 2013-14, but were saved by rain in Centurion and a late streaky partnership in Auckland. That they are in danger of doing that so close to the World Cup will be a matter of worry for them. They will still be without the services of Rohit Sharma, who MS Dhoni said is not a worry for the World Cup at least.
Australia will play around with their combination a little. They might put batsman in situations that deviate from their usual role in the side, but their bowling – especially at the death – remains and will remain their biggest asset. They have bowled first in all their three matches, and have conceded 67, 61 and 59 since the end of the 40th over. India will have to hurt them more there if they are to turn the game against England into a direct knockout.
Form guide
(last five matches, most recent first)
Australia WWWWW
India LLWWW
In the spotlight
George Bailey comes back to the side as captain, and should stay there until Michael Clarke is fit. Before Clarke got injured, it was Bailey who was keeping Steven Smith out. Now, though, Smith seems a certain first starter, and it will be Bailey (or Glenn Maxwell) who will be under fire if Clarke has to push his way back into the XI, whenever he does. Bailey has not had a big score since the blockbuster ODI tour of India in late 2013. He has averaged 23 at a strike-rate of 73 since. He needs to stack up reasons for staying in the side when all members of the World Cup squad are fit.
Axar Patel will naturally and undesirably be compared to Ravindra Jadeja. His bowling has done him no disservice. In the first match he went for 45 runs in 10 overs, including overs bowled at the death. It is with the bat, though, that he compares unfavourably to Jadeja. Two innings, two ducks against quick bowling. A bit similar to how Jadeja’s career started. India have said often that the absence of a big hitter at No. 7 has introduced caution to the top six, delaying the slog. India have also said they won’t be averse to playing two left-arm spinners once Jadeja is fit, so Akshar will remain in focus over the remaining matches of the triangular.
Team news
Bailey will come back in for Cameron White, and Shaun Marsh will make way for David Warner. Australia are certain to play Xavier Doherty, which means one of the quicks will have to make way. Mitchell Marsh is nearing full fitness; if he does make his comeback, he will have to bowl too. If he doesn’t, Australia will pick an extra bowler, pushing James Faulkner up to bat at No. 6. Josh Hazlewood is a good chance to play too
Australia (possible) 1 Aaron Finch, 2 David Warner, 3 George Bailey (capt.), 4 Steven Smith, 5 Glenn Maxwell, 6 Mitchell Marsh/Gurinder Sandhu 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 James Faulkner, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Josh Hazlewood, 11 Xavier Doherty
Rohit has been ruled out, which means India can’t leave out Shikhar Dhawan even if they want to. Ishant Sharma and Ravindra Jadeja are returning to fitness. While Jadeja’s throwing prowess remains in doubt after a shoulder impingement, Ishant could well play on Monday. India could go back to two spinners given a dry-looking SCG pitch.
India (possible) 1 Ajinkya Rahane, 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 Ambati Rayudu, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Suresh Raina, 6 MS Dhoni (capt. & wk), 7 Axar Patel, 8 Stuart Binny/ R Ashwin, 9 Bhuvneshwar Kumar, 10 & 11 Two out of Ishant Sharma, Umesh Yadav and Mohammed Shami
Pitch and conditions
The pitch at the SCG looks dry, which is why Australia are bringing Xavier Doherty in. There is going to be a bit of weather around, especially in the late afternoon and evening, which if it stays on for long can do the job for India. They need just two points from this.
Stats and trivia
As middling as Bailey’s recent form might have been, if he scores 40 runs on Australia Day, he will become the second-fastest Australian to 2000 ODI runs, at 53 innings level with Matthew Hayden and one innings slower than David Boon.
The last six ODIs in Australia have been won chasing. Such a long streak of chasing wins last took place in Australia in 1986.
In 13 matches against them at SCG, India have beaten Australia only once, in the triangular final in March 2008.
Quotes
“I think one of our great strengths throughout the tournament [World Cup] is going to be our flexibility. I think we’ve seen that already, sometimes through necessity, but just having the flexibility to be able to bring X [Doherty] when it’s appropriate, use different quicks in games, use different quicks at different stages of the game.”
George Bailey
“We were playing the best XI. We were bothered by injuries. As I said earlier, experimentation is a word that’s banned. You can use all the different words but we don’t experiment, we feature the best XI.”
MS Dhoni says the uncertainty around the combination is down to injuries.
