Nawaz’s problem is not TTP or NAP, it’s inability to govern
It didn’t take very long for the strategy of associating PML-N with survival of democracy to begin unravelling. All the party needed was for the pressure to wear off. And when dharna agitation subsided after Peshawar, the N league simply paralysed itself.
And it was evident as early as the APC how things would unfold. There was bound to be a show of unity, and there was little the prime minister could do except promise swift retribution. But what was Ijazul Haq, and some other ‘old friends’, doing on the stage? How would these people build the new narrative?
Some say the price cut led to the usual hoarding. Only they didn’t understand the mechanics of the international oil market, and got caught with their hand in the cookie jar
Since then, whatever forward movement has been made was squeezed by the military – hangings, 21st amendment, etc. The prime minister has held marathon meetings, yet even at APS victims’ chehlum the line out of his office spoke of “resolve” and “intent” to “take on all terrorists”. And despite repeated promises, the state machinery is unable to move against madrassas, especially lal masjid. Security agencies have formally informed the interior ministry of LM’s threat level, yet the chief cleric remains free despite an arrest warrant. Now the government has more egg on its face after the Wah bomber last week turned out to be a lal masjid student.
But the war is the least of the government’s worries. It’s long since ceded control to the military. Nawaz came out chest thumping into his third stint – trying Gen Musharraf, taking control of COIN strategy – but it didn’t take long for him to blunder himself into a position of subservience. Zardari was smarter and allowed Kayani to oversee those important matters without much trouble.
The government’s main problem is its inability to do its basic job – govern. No matter how the party’s Marvi Memons spin it, they cannot blame the fuel crisis on the opposition. Khaqan Abbasi tried put it on beggars and media – though didn’t explain how – but he soon got to know how differently the democracy slogan now sits with the people. No electricity, no gas and now no oil. That, unbelievably, when there is an international oil glut. The minister first said high demand because of low price was responsible. But then someone probably suggested that that made him look even sillier, because rising demand, too, is an international phenomenon, but we’re the only country in this state.
It was said then and it’s said again. Nawaz will never order an inquiry that might find fault with the election. It would have been better to quit at the dharna
Some say the price cut led to the usual hoarding. Only they didn’t understand the mechanics of the international oil market, and got caught with their hand in the cookie jar. But Abbasi runs an airline, and probably understands Opec economics better than most people in Pakistan. Still, not many people bought blaming it on Ogra, especially since there’s still no solution and people are still suffering.
And the Imran problem hasn’t gone away either. Nawaz should have realised – after the dharna and successive jalsas – that Imran can go back to street power to push him into a corner again. It was wrong to assume Peshawar would keep him quiet for long, especially since he had no intention of honouring the judicial commission promise. It was said then and it’s said again. Nawaz will never order an inquiry that might find fault with the election. It would have been better to quit at the dharna. So, another unkept promise and more pressure in the offing.
Already, what remains of Nawaz after his third first year is not impressive. He wanted to challenge the military but was quickly cut to size. He promised overcoming energy shortage yet the power crisis has worsened. And now, of course, it is unable to guarantee everyday gas and fuel. He will no longer be able to play the democracy card when his credibility is questioned, not as long as he’s unable to guarantee even basic governance. The military already runs the most important ministries, perhaps it should employ the lead-from-behind model on governance as well.