Washington deciding, again, what’s best for Pakistan
Kerry brought an important message to Islamabad. Zarb-e-Azb has Washington’s stamp of approval and CSF is back on the table. But that’s already old news. That much was okayed when Gen Sharif went to the US. That and same-page cooperation with Kabul – when President Ghani came to Pakistan – was the new arrangement in light of the US drawdown. And the cooperation became possible because general, not prime minister, Sharif began the military operation. There was a new, and very different, president in Kabul. There was the American withdrawal amid a growing Taliban insurgency. But it was Pakistan’s decision, finally, to cancel the Taliban sanctuary that sealed the new paradigm.
But the thaw on the western border, and Washington’s goodwill, more or less coincided with growing unease on the eastern border. There was a hint of better ties when Modi won the election, but that went away while Nawaz was still in Delhi for the inauguration. Then Modi went to Washington and got Obama to mention Pakistan based anti-India outfits by name. And then India provoked the working boundary, with obvious results.
As Kerry came, Pakistan relied on its newfound liking in America to help deliver a message to India. The confrontation is distracting the army, after all, and affecting Zarb-e-Azb. And since “all hues and colours” also includes the Haqqanis – or so the Americans finally seem to believe – nobody wants unnecessary Pak-India escalation, do they?
The Americans have confused a number of friends recently. In the Middle East, they have all but reversed the Syria policy – of backing Saudi funded and armed militias, like in Libya, to overthrow the regime – and opened negotiations with Iran
It gets complicated here. The Americans have confused a number of friends recently. In the Middle East, they have all but reversed the Syria policy – of backing Saudi funded and armed militias, like in Libya, to overthrow the regime – and opened negotiations with Iran. And since the ISIS rampage, the talks with Tehran have revolved more around Syria than nuclear proliferation, which tells a lot. The reason was a belated realisation of the threat of the al Qaeda, Jabhat al Nusra, Da’ish variety. And, of course, the just as belated realisation that by letting the Saudis go wherever they wanted with the Wahabi madrassah model, and by the unjust wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, America has aided in the spread of Islamic militancy. The Saudis are still confused, and have apparently made Plan-B arrangements with the Pakistani military, for protecting the monarchy in case the deal with the Americans really turns sour.
Zarb-e-Azb brought a similar reaction in the AfPak region. The Americans are going just when the Taliban are the strongest in years in Afghanistan. And after years, Pakistan finally decided to crack down on the TTP. A rare convergence of interests against the enemy that has America worried in other parts of the world as well. So as long as Pakistan is sincere about “all hues and colours”, they will go along with the CSF, etc. They will even extend drone targets to TTP hideouts in Kunar and Nuristan, however much it confuses India. The Afghans too – with American go-ahead, no doubt – will cooperate, especially after Peshawar, in rolling back NDS support to TTP, which goes back to Karzai’s days.
But there’s a quid pro quo, and that was what Kerry came to tell. Zarb-e-Azb is not enough. It’s good that the good-Taliban days are over and it’s even better that the Haqqanis, too, are fair game now. But there’s always “do more” when it comes to Washington-Islamabad. So Pakistan must now extend the operation to the main cities, which was the declared intent anyway. And Kerry mentioned it by name, there must be action against LeT. That’s what will keep the American goodwill flowing and that’s what will balance the regional equation as well. And this might confuse Pakistan.
So as long as Pakistan is sincere about “all hues and colours”, they will go along with the CSF, etc. They will even extend drone targets to TTP hideouts in Kunar and Nuristan, however much it confuses India
The war against terror is important, of course, but commerce is always higher on the agenda. And no matter how crucial Pakistan – and its newfound resolve against militants – is, the interest in India is much deeper. With Pakistan it’s about militancy, sanctuaries, aid and more aid, etc, while with India it’s about commerce, civilian nuclear technology and arms deals. And, yes, Washington will stall the commerce, however temporarily, if there is a willing partner against terrorism – just like it is ignoring the Saudis in favour of the Iranians. But its patience will last only so long as the proof of the pudding lies in the eating. So, little surprise that there are suddenly reports, following Kerry’s visit, that the government is considering banning the Haqqanis and LeT.
Now that might really mean going full circle as far as “all hues and colours” are concerned. For decades the Haqqanis were the establishment’s bulwark against alien influences across the Durand Line. And Hafiz Saeed has been the brass’s blue-eyed, even if it is about posturing. No prizes for guessing why he went active when Nawaz was in Delhi, or when the Indian army was bewildered by the recent Uri Sector attack.
In short, America’s pat-on-the-back will keep Pakistan significant in the regional context. And while Zarb-e-Azb has gone a long way in achieving just that, the military – more than the government – must now roll back proxies that have been nurtured for decades, even at the cost of a much more vicious blowback than the Taliban alone could manage. That would mean, of course, that things would get a lot worse before they can get any better; but eventually the cancer of Islamic militancy would be gone forever. The alternate is continued patronage of these lashkars and jaishes, and no US dollars to lubricate COIN operations, and a more belligerent India. Once again, it has taken Washington to impress upon Islamabad what is best for the latter.