Is Pakistan increasingly becoming the third wheel?
Pakistan used to enjoy an important strategic relationship with the US. However, over the course of the last two decades, that relationship has been marred by inefficiencies, mistrust and even deceit. While the Pak-US relation has been suffering, the India-US bond has been growing stronger.
While India is moving swiftly towards becoming the next super power, Pakistan is yet to rid itself of its terrorist woes long enough to focus on any real development goals. Both Modi and Nawaz stem from right wing parties and were elected in somewhat similar circumstances, but one is seen as the source of economic development, while the other is only known for making promises he can’t keep.
Imtiaz Risaldar, CEO of an automobile company from Pune, gives an interesting comparison of the two premiers. “Modi is the product of a peculiar political situation that existed at the beginning of the year. Economic growth was stagnant, there was a huge price rise and there were never-before-heard corruption allegations against the previous government. Nawaz Sharif is a rightist — he came to power with the help of the right wing constituency in Pakistan. Remember, the secularists were not even given a chance to campaign during your general election.
“The past record of Sharif involves him saying something and doing something else. He also does not seem able to carry the military along — which Zardari-Gillani did excellently. From the Indian perspective, it would be wrong to trust Sharif,” he said.
While Modi has got to work quite quickly, Nawaz’s impotence as a premier has never been more obvious. Devdan Chaudhuri, author of ‘Anatomy of Life,’ from Kolkata explained, “Modi has been able to quickly erase the irrational fears of a BJP led government and put development back on the spotlight. People, especially the youth, have found a connection with his vision statements. There is very little to be critical of Modi, from his performance, so far. However, he should do more to reign in the occasional absurdities of few elements from the extreme right.”
However, perceptions about Sharif aren’t anywhere near what Indians feel about Modi. “There is dominant view in India that there are several power centres in Pakistan, and the government is not in total control of all the policies and practices,” Devdan said.
While Devdan doesn’t want to compare the two premiers, he did have a few thoughts about why the US treats the two nations differently.
While Modi has got to work quite quickly, Nawaz’s impotence as a premier has never been more obvious
“US is attracted by the economic opportunity that lies in India. And the very prosperous and influential Indian community in the US is driving these collaborations and engagements. And this will only grow, as India undertakes reforms which will make business easier to do out here,” he explained.
“Pakistan has been an ally in the US war on terror. Hence, US engagement with Pakistan is because of the war on terror, while with India, it is because of the economic opportunity to do business,” he added.
While the US has been trying to assist India, it has made only the minimum investment required in Pakistan. $250 million is a blip compared to what the country has done for Pakistan before.
Tahir Zain, an NGO worker and writer from Karachi, has an idea on why the situation has changed. He feels that Pakistan has never had any relationship with the US except one of a beggar and a philanthropist with Pakistan being the former and the US being the latter. “If you look at the 50s and 60s because of SEATO and CENTO we attacked India so that US may come after us and favour us, but that never happened. When the US has a strategic advantage they give us aid, like they did when they wanted us to fight the Soviet Union,” he said.
“India is a different story, it’s a huge market and a huge country and it has to be treated as an equal by the US. We are not their equals, we are beggars complete with the bowl,” he added.
Tahir feels that this is irrespective of the two premiers. “Modi is turning India into a highly efficient yet highly polarised religio-fascist state, while Nawaz, through his monumental inefficiency, is unwittingly paving the way for a military coup. The difference between the two is in the macro and the micro approach. Nawaz is concerned with only his own family and its well being. While Modi is concerned with turning his whole country into his own image,” he said.
Perhaps the reason the US is more tilted towards India is their prime minster. Yogendra Kalavalapalli, a journalist from Hyderabad, thinks Modi is more about actions than words.
“Modi has proved to be a talker than a doer going by his eight months in office. Not many reforms have seen the light of the day but I believe the government is working in that direction. On the other hand, my reading of Pakistan is that Nawaz Sharif is too busy battling the militants and a combative opposition in the form of Imran Khan to do anything else,” he said.
Why the US treats the two different boils down to loyalties according to Yogendra.
“As the US withdraws from Afghanistan, it knows it’ll have to depend less on Pakistan. Slowly, the dollar aid will be reduced to a trickle, pushing the aid-driven Pakistan economy into a deeper crisis. The US seems to be abandoning its wartime ally while it focuses on building a solid partnership with the economic heavyweight next door.
“This is reflective of how US is treating the two countries. Pakistan has gotten itself into America’s bad books by its dual standards in supporting America on its war on terror. At the same time, India courted America especially in areas of commerce, defence supplies, joint military exercises and Intel sharing (especially because both are battling the same enemy). The US seems to have learnt its lessons hard — it will not step in AfPak region for a while at least, and with the declining importance of AfPak in American foreign policy, so will Pakistan’s foreign aid,” he said.
Fatima Athar, a writer and activist from Lahore, couldn’t agree more with Yogendra. “Sharif’s own stance seems catatonic on most issues, until prodded into often preposterously exaggerated reaction. We insist on holding peace talks with Our Misunderstood Brothers the Terrorists, then launch a whirlwind execution campaign, and an Orwellian hotline citizen can use to report other citizens to the army,” she explains sarcastically.
Perhaps the reason the US is more tilted towards India is their prime minster
In terms of the two premiers, Fatima doesn’t see many similarities. “Nawaz is a populist conservative trying hard to be everything to all people. Modi is a popular conservative trying everything to be hard to some people.”
When it comes to the love triangle between the three countries Fatima believes people are seeing things the wrong way. “The difference isn’t in how the US government deals with Pakistan versus how it deals with India — that’s just our weird national insecurity/persecution complex talking. For example, according to Medecins Sans Frontieres. The US govt is currently trying to pressurise India into stopping the production of generic medication that would effectively push prices of life-saving medication beyond the reach of the people and non-profit organisations that need them the most. This is because the American government’s sole responsibility is to safeguard the interests of the American people (the definition of which is increasingly becoming limited to “corporations” but that is really a topic for another time).
“The difference comes from how the Pakistani government deals with US. On some levels, this comparison is unfair. India is a multicultural society strongly invested in securing its future as an emerging superpower. It has a lot of things going wrong but also many things going right and I feel when it negotiates with the US, both parties understand that.
“On the other hand Pakistan is saddled with political indecision, the burden of previous foreign policy decisions, constant military interference, a guerrilla war in every province, mismanaged resources, social tensions that are certainly aggravated by a virulent violent brand of religiosity, lack of a consistent national narrative, a tendency to be secretive and the fallout from some seriously bad decisions, like hiding OBL while accepting military aid from the US,” she said.
“We really do not and cannot speak from the same position as India and often the “respect” we try to command comes across more as tantrum throwing. We’d do well to remember respect is earned, not demanded. And then maybe stop looking east, west, or towards our navels and actually do something about the problems holding us back,” she added.
If Pakistan were to sober up and clean up its act, now would be the time. Sundas Hoorain, a lawyer from Lahore, doesn’t think that India has anything to do with how the US treats Pakistan. This is all the country’s own doing. “This relationship has been marred by over a decade of dealing with the duplicitous dealings of the Pakistan military. Where they found that Intel shared was leaked to the Taliban. And news came out that funds for better weapons never reached soldiers fighting in the operations. This has created a mistrust that is very deep and the Kerry Lugar bill is an example of that,” she said.
“It is understandable that the US eyes with suspicion any aid requests from Pakistan. But it also can’t afford to cut ties with the country so we have become frenemies in a sense. There is immense hope on the American side that the Peshawar attack will mean a more serious attempt by Pakistan to honour its counterterrorism promises. However, there is understandable mistrust there too that Pakistan might just only still want to do window dressing rather than seriously address the problem,” Sundas explained.
Despite the attention that India is being showered on, Sundas does not think that Pakistan should try to compare itself in any way to its neighbour, “India is not an alternative to Pakistan for the US. As no amount of collaboration from India can accomplish what an honest effort from Pakistan can against terrorism. So they’re stuck with us, and they know that, and they resent us for it too,” she said.
