John Kerry’s visit

Timing is important

The US secretary of state came at a crucial time for the region. The Americans are leaving Afghanistan, which has serious security implications. And the Taliban insurgency is on the rise, which adds to Kabul’s problems. There is also the new government, and its policies, to incorporate. Then there is Pakistan, especially now since Islamabad has launched Zarb-e-Azb, and vowed to eliminate terrorists of all varieties from the homeland. But there is also India, provoking Pakistan just when the military is busy in Fata and the western frontier.

There are signs, especially since Gen Sharif flew to Washington, that Pakistan is still the lead regional player as the Afghan war winds up. And now that the NW operation has been underway for half-a-year, the Americans seem convinced that Pakistan is really out to get the terrorists, especially after Peshawar. Therefore, with a more cooperative government in Kabul, Washington seems giving AfPak one last round to sort its problems out; otherwise it will leave, once again, with the job only half done.

Significantly, while there was appreciation for the military operation and the turnaround on the good-Taliban, Kerry minced few words about what it would take for the largesse to continue flowing – CSF, aid, etc. The government must now move from the Haqqanis to the more obvious proxies, and include LeT and the like in the domain of Zarb-e-Azb. Only if Pakistan continues to play ball will the goodwill continue to flow. And that also means restricting Indian belligerence. The flipside, of course, is that if Pakistan is found playing a double game again, exogenous influences will no longer shield it from the regional choke-hold. And that is the only reason Obama – after having endorsed India’s Pakistan-specific concerns from the White House – prefers to give Islamabad the benefit of the doubt, which would not have happened if Zarb-e-Azb were not green-lighted and Haqqanis really not bombed out of their hideouts. It is important that Pakistan realises the timing and meaning of Secretary Kerry’s visit. If it fails to read the tea leaves correctly, it will find its elbow room considerably restrained.