Trouble in the neighbourhood

What is and what should be

“It is the enemy that is screaming (…) The enemy has realised that times have changed and their old habits will not be tolerated,” said Modi in a political rally a few months ago in response to the skirmishes with the Pakistan army along the LOC. Modi, the blued eyed boy of the Hindutva advocating right wing BJP party. Modi, the pride of Gujarat yet under whose watch Gujarat bled Muslim blood in 2002. Modi, who today is the prime minister of India.

This is a man of many faces. There was, after all, the conciliatory Modi who invited Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration ceremony last year. And there is the Modi of today, finally coming into his own. The on-going hostility along the LOC has come after a long period of relative calm. Coincidence? Not so much if you follow Modi’s unvarnished demagoguery and anti-Pakistan rhetoric before his climb to power. But it isn’t just Modi. Even the defence minister of India, Arun Jaitley, couldn’t stop himself from some chest-thumping bravado. “If Pakistan persists with this adventurism, our forces will make the cost of this adventurism unaffordable,” he recently said.

Surely this doesn’t bode well for either country. Pakistan for one has many troubles of its own with its internal war against terrorism, counterinsurgency efforts along the western front and economic pressures, to name a few. But India is no heaven either. Home to almost a third of the world’s poor with an estimated 269 million (or 22 percent) people under the poverty line, the country faces a huge population crisis which is estimated to surpass China’s in a couple of decades. According to United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation, 17 percent of Indians are still too undernourished to lead a productive life. In fact, one-quarter of the world’s undernourished people live in India, more than in all of Sub-Saharan Africa. Arun Jaitley may do well to spare a thought for the ‘cost’ and ‘affordability’ of plain bread in his country, once he’s safely back to reality.

Last year India raised its defence spending by 12 percent, setting its military budget at $38.35 billion. The “N” word – N for nuclear – is quite frequently invoked every time there is the slightest hint of confrontation with its smaller rival

Last year India raised its defence spending by 12 percent, setting its military budget at $38.35 billion. The “N” word – N for nuclear – is quite frequently invoked every time there is the slightest hint of confrontation with its smaller rival. On top of that, this narrative that Pakistan is maliciously stirring up online casino insurgency in Kashmir and using radical groups like LeT and JeM to send terror down its way is one that many Indian media channels effortlessly generate; no teleprompters needed there.

Little, of course, will ever be mentioned of their own establishment’s intrigues in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. “We have our leverage in Baluchistan and in some other parts of Pakistan. What we really need to convey to Pakistan is that if they commit a blatant anti-India act on the ground, a military act or otherwise, it will have to bear the repercussions,” said Ved Marwah, former governor of Jharkhand. Also, India’s own retired Army chief, General Vijay Kumar Singh, admitted that India sponsored bomb blasts in Pakistan and doled out money to the separatist elements in Baluchistan. He explained how they created a Technical Services Division (TSD) — a clandestine collective of handpicked military intelligence personnel — for covert operations in Pakistan, going after the alleged mastermind of the Mumbai terrorist attacks. In August 2013 US Special Representative James Dobbins said Pakistan”s fears over India”s role in Afghanistan are “not groundless”. Defence Secretary and former Senator Chuck Hagel said, “India for some time has […] used Afghanistan as a second front, and India has over the years financed problems for Pakistan on that side of the border”. It is no secret in Pakistan that India has been using its consulates in Afghanistan to facilitate Baloch rebel activity.

The greatest bone of contention, though, between the two countries is not terrorism, it’s not even the sporadic antagonism along the LOC/working boundary, but is in fact: water. One of the many post-partition blows to Pakistan was that all of its rivers originate in Indian controlled areas. In other words, India controls the water supply to Pakistan. To fully appreciate what that means for Pakistan one must examine the water situation in the country: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report recently which declared Pakistan as one of the most “water-stressed” countries in the world, not far from being classified, “water-scarce”.

The greatest bone of contention, though, between the two countries is not terrorism, it’s not even the sporadic antagonism along the LOC/working boundary, but is in fact: water

Though it is true that the two countries have signed the Indus Water Treaty and that since 1949 India has never fully blocked the water supply to Pakistan, but India’s aggressive upstream hydropower dam deployment lends it the power to manipulate the water flowing to Pakistan’s agriculture industry — a quarter of its economy and employer of half its population. This is indeed one of the salient reasons why Pakistan does not want to give up Kashmir because such an arrangement would throw it at the permanent mercy of India considering half of its rivers have their wellspring in the Tibetan Himalayan Plateau.

So what is the way forward? Firstly both countries need to drop the swagger and dramatically cut down troop deployment and military expenditure and invest that money where it’s needed the most – alleviating poverty. Secondly, trade relations need to be opened up further. In 2012-13, trade between India and Pakistan totalled $2.4 billion, a fraction of the total trade of the two countries. Pakistan can certainly benefit from India’s billion plus market and India has much to gain from Pakistan as well. Additionally, Pakistan should grant India MFN status despite geopolitical issues like Kashmir, Siachen, Afghanistan and Sir Creek. Increased trade and business will also help water down some of the ‘enemy’ rhetoric. Transit routes between the two countries must be opened up. India has not allowed Pakistan to access Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan via its territory and Pakistan has not given transit rights to India to access Afghanistan. Cross-border banking facilities and joint ventures must be enabled and travel/visa requirements be made as lax as security permits.

Ultimately both countries must, in all humility, acknowledge the new world order and their place in it. Time for them to understand that the only way to rise up is through mutual co-operation not conflict.