Disturbing the neighbourhood
Whatever hope of Pak-India reconciliation emerged with Modi coming to power is now well in the past. Instead, it has become clear that the BJP had planned its aggressive Pakistan-specific posture well ahead of time. And in hindsight, it makes more sense than the far-right, religiously motivated and visibly anti-Pakistan/anti-Muslim group wanting better ties. Still, they played their cards well at the time. And it seemed Nawaz’s obvious desire for improved relations, especially with regard to trade, would be reciprocated by New Delhi. Nawaz must still be credited for trying though, not the least because he upset the military as well as his own right-wing supporters.
However, now that the confrontation is turning ugly – increased casualties around the working boundary and charged verbal exchanges – it is important to calculate what turns the relationship can take over the coming weeks and months. It is a dangerous precedent already that mortar exchange across the working boundary, as opposed to the LoC, is fast being accepted as the new normal. The Indians clearly want to provoke Pakistan into an ill-timed reaction. With the army busy internally and on the western front, it makes perfect military sense for the Indians to stoke the eastern border – that is if the Indians want to make trouble, which, of course, they deny publically.
But the theory fast gaining ground in Pakistan, that India is trying to sandwich Pakistan, is difficult to deny, even for India’s long-time friends. It has obviously frustrated New Delhi that Pakistan, Afghanistan and America have had a delayed convergence of interests of late, especially after Modi put so much work into getting Obama to publically produce an anti-Pakistan line. That is why John Kerry’s visit has become that much more important, and interesting. Islamabad expects him to tell India in no uncertain terms that now that Pakistan is finally moving against terrorists “of all hues and colours”, the working boundary provocation must end. Anything less will become cause to doubt US sincerity regarding the post-drawdown period.