Reminiscent of the civil war of the ’90s?
The year 2014 will be remembered as the year of US withdrawal from Afghanistan after the decade-long war against terrorism has come close to its end. It is still to be debated whether the US is drawing down its forces on a note of victory or defeat. But calculating the win and loss in military terms, it seems that the US has lost the war. In 2001, the US attacked Afghanistan with the objective of dismantling and eliminating al-Qaeda and its affiliates. On the ground, Taliban forces are still strong especially in the southern Afghanistan and al-Qaeda has progressed to become a new threat to world peace in the form of ISIS.
President Obama said, “The longest war in American history is coming to a responsible conclusion”. It seems to be an irresponsible conclusion. No way can one see the dismantling of al-Qaeda, let alone its elimination. And Afghan Taliban are as strong as they were in 2001 except that they do not have the de-jure government. Otherwise, they are ruling in southern Afghanistan albeit in a more ‘un-official’ manner. The people who do not trust the official judicial system go to the Taliban authorities to get justice, which is believed to be more real and speedy. Even if the US killed Osama bin Laden, is it a sign of winning the war and bringing it to a responsible conclusion? Not so. Al-Qaeda may not be strong enough to challenge the world order but it has given space to ISIS, which has the capacity to disturb international peace and security.
It is true that the military has damaged the Taliban, who suffered significant losses in terms of men and area of control. The losses were most severe in the provinces of Helmand and Kandahar in southern Afghanistan
It is true that the military has damaged the Taliban, who suffered significant losses in terms of men and area of control. The losses were most severe in the provinces of Helmand and Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. But it does not mean that the southern part is cleared from the Taliban group. In the last few years, the Taliban resurfaced in the area that was once cleared by the US forces. In southern Afghanistan, the Taliban re-grouped and have taken over control as the US troops left the ground by handing the control to the Afghan security forces. When the area was bombed, the Taliban hid inside their strategic locations and as the troops left, they resurfaced and took back control. A successful strategy, isn’t it? Moreover, the war is complicated because of the long and porous border of Afghanistan with Pakistan which is also facing the similar threats. The border is freely used by the Taliban and other militant organisations to save themselves from any attack from either side of the border: Pakistan or Afghanistan.
After deciding to drawdown from Afghanistan and leaving behind only 10,800 troops, the US has incentivised the Taliban. There is likely a chance that this responsible conclusion of a decade-long war would give fresh energy to the Taliban. Most probably, they are waiting for the right time to raise their heads, regroup themselves, and challenge the Afghan civilian setup. The Afghan security forces are not efficient and fully equipped to deal with the Taliban. The complete pull out of coalition forces from Helmand province is quite worrisome as the US Marines fought so hard to roll back the Taliban. Once the Taliban regroup themselves and boost their energy, Helmand could be the starting point by the Taliban to gain control of at least all of southern Afghanistan, if not the whole country.
The responsibility to protect Afghanistan from the resurgence of Taliban lies with the new Afghan administration led by Ashraf Ghani. At present, Pakistan is also determined to fight terrorism and launched a non-discriminatory crackdown on terrorist organisations
In Iraq, US combat forces, after winding up the operation there in 2010, were re-branded “advise and assist” forces similar to the remaining US presence in Afghanistan. If there are 10,800 forces in Afghanistan, there were 52,000 US troops left behind in Iraq to assist and advise the Iraqi security forces. But the situation in Iraq worsened at the end of 2011 when the US pulled out and gave rise to the new threat in the form of ISIS. The failure by the US to negotiate a status of forces agreement with the Iraqi government allowed the then Prime Minister Nouri Maliki to launch a sectarian crackdown on Sunnis and marginalise the remnants of Baáthist regime. The major force in ISIS are the same Sunni and Baath Party members who became victims of Maliki’s policies. And now to control the threat of ISIS, the Obama administration sent back a small number of US troops and launched airstrikes on the organisation. Isn’t the situation in Afghanistan similar to Iraq? A weak Afghan security force and a weak civilian administration to challenge Taliban forces who believe they are fighting for reclaiming Afghanistan from the ‘evil forces’.
The responsibility to protect Afghanistan from the resurgence of Taliban lies with the new Afghan administration led by Ashraf Ghani. At present, Pakistan is also determined to fight terrorism and launched a non-discriminatory crackdown on terrorist organisations. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan must coordinate their activities and work jointly for eliminating the future threat of Taliban not only in Afghanistan but in the whole region. If the civilian setup fails in Afghanistan, it will roll back the situation to the times of civil war in 1990’s.