Who benefits?
To be fair, Nawaz did go the extra mile for his new beginning with India – perhaps too far. It is no secret that not all institutions shared his enthusiasm, and he also alienated his core right-wing vote bank. The N-league clearly bent towards the business lobby, and there was the thinking that binding the two countries economically might facilitate the political thaw. Yet what followed as Modi rolled out his foreign policy betrayed a very different mindset in New Delhi. And it’s not just that Nawaz’s eagerness – not entertaining Hurriyet in Delhi, for example – was not reciprocated by Modi. BJP’s aggressive diplomacy, and the army’s belligerence since the new government, mean that the standoff is going to last for the foreseeable future, at least.
Of course, it didn’t help that Hafiz Saeed went active at the most inopportune times. He was mobilised when Nawaz and Modi were shaking hands at the latter’s swearing-in. And he was seen again as the Indians agonised over the Uri Sector incident. But while that is right out of the old book, the Indian strategy has been novel. That exchange of fire over the working boundary is now as normal as LoC violations used to be tells a lot. The Indians are provoking Pakistan into the most direct confrontation in decades, that too at the most inappropriate time.
In this context, Kh Asif’s statement becomes that much more understandable. That the eastern front is ignited just when an existential fight is underway on the western border shows a desire to sandwich Pakistan. But caution needs to be exercised. Promising to pay back in the same coin, while understandable, only plays into a scenario that over-stretches the military. There is a need for saner counsel to prevail on both sides. Pakistan has recently won the backing of crucial partners in the war on terror. Indeed, chatter from New Delhi showed typical frustration, especially since Modi had just got Obama to back its position about outfits operating from Pakistan. Perhaps those partners, and arbitrators, should make their friends realise the futility of such misadventures at this point in time. Continued aggression will not only further alienate the two capitals, but ultimately harm the people, not only as a direct result of the fighting, but also indirectly by continuing to deprive them of economic dividends that are being ignored to continue the fight.