The new year will test the government, the opposition and the armed forces
Five major challenges face Pakistan in 2015. The foremost challenge is from terrorist organisations. The survival of the state depends on whether it can defeat the religious and sectarian outfits.
These include TTP (Fazlullah), Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, al Qaeda, and several sectarian terrorist groups. ISIS too might extend it activities to Pakistan this year. It is now being acknowledged, after a lot of sacrifices, that the war against terrorism is our on war. Finally national consensus on terrorism has taken shape.
Military operations will play an important role in the fight. Their importance is illustrated by the fact that in 2008-2009 there were eighteen administrative units, districts, tribal agencies and FRs that were either completely or partially under the influence of the TTP. Over the years the terrorists have been dislodged from all these areas through the use of military force. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has deprived the terrorists of their last and the biggest sanctuary.
While the capacity of the terrorist groups has been considerably degraded by military operations it will take time before these are totally eradicated. What is worrisome is that they can still launch well-coordinated and devastating attacks like the one on Wagah border and the Army Public school Peshawar.
The two attacks expose serious weaknesses in the working of the intelligence agencies, which are to play a central role in the war against terrorism. There is also need to weed out elements in them who are sympathetic to the terrorist networks.
Military operations need to be supplemented with actions by the government. Unless this is done, the resurgence of terrorist activity cannot be stopped. This is proved by the attacks in Swat, Bajaur and Khyber agencies, which had earlier been declared free of terrorists. For this the police and civilian intelligence agencies need to be strengthened. What is equally important is to hold Local Government elections so that the elected bodies too can play their role in the war against terrorism. So far there has been no realisation of the importance of strengthening the civilian institutions in Swat and tribal areas. It remains t be seen if there is an awareness of the importance of their role in 2015.
While the capacity of the terrorist groups has been considerably degraded by military operations it will take time before these are totally eradicated
Even more alarming is the presence of terrorist leaders, hideouts and sleeper cells in the urban areas of Pakistan, particularly South Punjab which continues to serve as the breeding ground of the terrorists. There is a need to realise that extremist thinking promoted over the past three decades has permeated deep in Pakistani society. The madaris continue to play a major role in promoting sectarian and religious hatred. What is more they have turned into a powerful lobby which is averse to any government probe into their affairs.
Every state worth its name has regulatory bodies to regulate the activities of different groups indulging in organised activities. This is true not only about industrial and commercial companies but also seminaries and mosques. Even highly conservative countries like Saudi Arabia have state regularity authorities for madaris and mosques. As the madaris provide the religious parties captive workers, JUI-F, JUI-S and JI have come out against the inclusion of the seminaries in the National Action Program. What remains to be seen is whether the government puts its foot down and goes for madaris reforms or bends to the pressure of the vested interest.
The propagation of extremist thinking is not confined to the seminaries alone. The courses of study in mainstream educational institutions, too, promote extremism. These need to be thoroughly revised to inculcate tolerance and promote democratic values. Militancy and extremism will not be defeated piecemeal. Without a comprehensive policy and a serious action plan, we will continue to drift into a dangerously downward spiral.
What is required is a joint effort by the army, political parties, media and civil society to confront the highly motivated, resourceful and desperate enemy. Everyone who is to play a role has to be brought on board. An attempt by any one of the players to dictate to others will create hurdles in the fulfilment of the mission.
The IDPs from NWA and a number of other agencies need to be sent back and rehabilitated in 2015. This is a necessary part of the drive to win hearts and minds. Any prolonged displacement is likely to provide the terrorists a new recruiting ground.
The second challenge is to harmonise civil-military relations. Many had developed an unrealistic perception about the strength of the nascent democracy after the peaceful transfer of power from one elected government to another. During the last year and a half, the PML-N government has simply managed to survive the jolts.
The PML-N’s tenure started with infantile attempts to regain the turf seized by the army over decades. Hasty and unpremeditated moves in fact further strengthened the military establishment. The army continues to take key decisions while remaining in the background. What is required is to shun infantile steps and rein in the over-zealous ministers. Equally important is to take the opposition on board before taking major decisions.
The madaris continue to play a major role in promoting sectarian and religious hatred. What is more they have turned into a powerful lobby which is averse to any government probe
The third challenge which could derail democracy is maintaining working relations with the opposition. The government’s arrogance and disregard for the opposition led to the over three month long confrontation with Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri. At one point during the standoff it was just touch and go for the government to fall. It survived by the skin of its teeth.
Unless the government displays flexibility, which the PML-N does not seem to have an aptitude for, the PTI could once again take to the streets and shut down the cities. This will further weaken the government while it could pave way for military intervention.
The government has to hold Local Government elections in all the four provinces. The schedule for the polls in KP is to be announced by the Election Commission in April. Any foot dragging in Punjab and Sindh would generate new political tensions. What is more, the elections should not only be fair but also seem to be so.
The fourth challenge is related to Pakistan’s foreign relations. The improvement of ties with neighbouring India, Afghanistan and Iran is of utmost importance for Pakistan. There is a need to ponder over why all the three believe that the government continues to indulge in cherry-picking despite claiming that it does not differentiate between good and bad Taliban. It is in Pakistan’s best interest to have normal relations with all the three neighbours. This will promote trade and economic ties and improve the livelihood of the people. Normalisation of relations alone can bring down the defence expenditure. In the absence of good relations with the neighbours it may not be possible to eradicate terrorism fully.
The fifth challenge is the improvement of the economy. This depends mainly on two factors. The wheels of industry will start moving only if the government is able to check power and gas shortages. Again, no major investment, local or foreign, is possible till there is security of life with an end to terrorist attacks and kidnappings for ransom. Expectations of tons of foreign investment waiting to pour into Pakistan will remain unfulfilled unless the two conditions are fulfilled.
Pakistan faces rough challenges in 2015 which will test the mettle of the government, the opposition and the armed forces.