BJP and Kashmir

Fine points about coalition government

It will be interesting to see how inflexible BJP chooses to remain now that negotiations about coalition government face the Jan1 deadline. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is far better placed, of course, and not just because of its three extra seats. Its politics – of protecting the state’s multi-regional, multi-ethnic, multi-religious identity – found not only more voters, but is also a more reasonable option for potential coalition partners than BJP’s Hindu India and the Article 370 controversy. Yet, at least for public consumption, both parties have kept ‘all options on the table’, which means that the Congress Party (with 12 seats) and National Conference (with 15), also have cards to play as the talks enter the final stage.

Interestingly, though, some sections of the Indian press are talking about a PDP-BJP deal being finalised behind the scenes. If true, there is the prospect of a PDP chief minister with a BJP deputy, which raises some strange questions. Didn’t the PDP say that its stand against revocation of Article 370 was “non-negotiable”? And didn’t some BJP leaders renew their commitment to Mission 44 even immediately after the election disappointment? Sure, that could be because the party still believes in it. But it could also be because the extremist core of the party does not want Modi to backtrack, and smartly issued statements prematurely, forcing the prime minister into an awkward position.

Whatever the mechanics, which will become clear soon enough, one of the parties will have to backtrack if the two are to work together. And since none of the Kashmiri groups is with BJP on 370, it is more likely that Modi will realise how the dream run got a reality check in Kashmir, and engineer a limited tactical retreat. That is, of course, if rumours of the deal are true. Usually, the lure of good ties is irresistible for mainstream Kashmiri groups, which is why this election result, and subsequent negotiations, are a novelty. If Modi does indeed realise the benefits of prudence, as opposed to sticking to an untenable position, it might reflect on other aspects of his politics as well, which would be welcome.