N grows weaker
If the talks get deadlocked again, it will at least prove that the prime minister’s resignation was not the only hurdle last time. Remember the five-and-a-half points? PTI people, especially Asad Umar, repeatedly told journalists that the government was, in fact, running from setting a timeline to the judicial commission. “They agreed to a six-month deadline during the discussions”, he said in an interview with DNA back then, “but left it open-ended when exchanging documents the next day”.
And that’s the whole point. Sudden optimism over return to talks seems to miss why they really failed last time. Nawaz will never set any process in motion that will undertake the kind of investigation that Imran is asking for; or he would have done it by now. Obviously there were irregularities, and obviously Imran will squeeze whatever comes out till N is out of the chair. And that’s not happening. That’s probably why Imran didn’t call off Karachi, despite calls from all around. PTI has learned from the recent past.
Unfortunately, the N league has not. Or Faisalabad would not be text-book Sharif bungling of a minor problem into a major one. Karachi showed that PPP would rather be smart than sorry, too. Which is why Lahore has become all the more important. And a number of things about the build-up are interesting.
Sudden optimism over return to talks seems to miss why they really failed last time. Nawaz will never set any process in motion that will undertake the kind of investigation that Imran is asking for; or he would have done it by now. Obviously there were irregularities, and obviously Imran will squeeze whatever comes out till N is out of the chair
One, Imran’s coming with momentum. The dharna fizzling out is a thing of the past. The jalsas were smart readjustment, and after Nov30, he clearly grabbed the initiative. Two, N is weaker, and that’s only partially because of Imran. True, PTI has been picking up speed, but the government is responsible for more of its own misfortunes. Faisalabad is a fine example, but the talks are better. Notice how they first put ‘conditions’ – like Imran call off Plan-C as CBM – then agreed unconditionally when the PTI would have none of it. There’s talk that a call from where it matters got them to talk again.
Three, the Punjab administration has not forgotten Model Town. And after Karachi, especially, not even the most gung-ho of Punjab police would be too eager to please the more aggressive of their bosses. They also remember, of course, how the CM backtracked when the police asked for orders in writing. And four, Imran is not going to budge from the demand of a time barred judicial commission before he folds the protest. And, again, since the government is going to agree with neither the deadline nor the manner of investigation – thumb prints, IDs, all votes? – there’s not much Shah Mahmood and Asad Umar can expect from Ishaq Dar and Ahsan Iqbal.
That doesn’t leave many options, does it? They can talk a while, but when there’s nothing really to talk about, there’s only so far that can go. Of course, if N pulls another Faisalabad tomorrow, the talks will be over immediately and that will be that. So it’s either N sitting back as PTI goes about choking cities and the country, or the ruling party believing in another good offence being the best defence.
Most outcomes seem to favour Imran. If N just sits back while the jalsas grow bigger and Go-Nawaz-Go and “Oye Nawaz” grow louder, Imran defangs them now and (most probably) mauls them in the next election – even if he’s still on the container without the resignation till then
But even if Lahore passes without incident there’s only so long the confrontation can last as it is. Push will come to shove sooner or later. The dharnas and jalsas will choke cities, and economies. And the N league has a habit of being provoked into untenable situations.
Most outcomes seem to favour Imran. If N just sits back while the jalsas grow bigger and Go-Nawaz-Go and “Oye Nawaz” grow louder, Imran defangs them now and (most probably) mauls them in the next election – even if he’s still on the container without the resignation till then. And if N decides to confront in typical Sharif style, he will only give Imran another stick to beat the government with. And should things get really ugly, like Faisalabad, and there are more deaths, the government can count on some of the more assertive organs of state to be a little more assertive.
So far N’s loss of stature has suited the military just fine. Gone are the days when N was going to teach Musharraf, and the army, a lesson. Gone also, is the belligerence of the Khawajas. And the military operation won Gen Sharif praise at home and abroad. Then his recent tour of the US proved that not only is Washington now OK with the Pakistani military – in contrast to the Good Taliban days – but Sharif the general, not Sharif the prime minister, matters in the most important international decisions. So this won’t be the best time to test the military’s patience.
Going forward, it seems a more confident PTI, a wakened government, and a definitely more powerful military will dominate the news. PPP has so far led the assembly in N’s defence. But with the Sharifs’ influence shrinking and its own fortunes uncertain, there’s no guarantee it won’t revise its strategy. Zardari did say recently that the government would go only when his party decided. And nothing PTI and PML-N talk about can do much about such eventualities. Unless, of course, the government agrees to a time barred commission that will investigate the ’13 election thoroughly and transparently. Otherwise there’s nothing really to talk about.
