And about the narrative
It is interesting that on the one hand senior government ministers blame PTI’s agitation for harming the economy, and on the other the prime minister takes credit for improving it. Much of the policies and projects that the government boasts have remained unchanged since before the dharna. There was, and is, talk of mega projects, motorways, power houses, etc. How the sit-in in Islamabad hurt any of these remains to be explained. There was also the initial complain about the Chinese president calling off his visit. But since Nawaz has secured record deals with Beijing that, too, is gone.
Of late, though, the prime minister has put another feather in his own cap. The government has reduced fuel prices to provide relief to the common man, goes the official tag line; and suddenly inflation, too, has dropped to the lowest level in a decade. In the age of modern, integrated media, and an enlightened working middle class, the government does itself few favours by adopting such positions. Granted, fuel price is generally flexible upwards but rigid downwards, especially in Pakistan. But still, the room to drop prices came because of the international downward pressure on Brent.
International oil prices have fallen approximately 35 percent this year. The relief at home has come just now, so there might well be truth to rumours that the move was prompted because of the pressure generated by the protests. Also, internationally this downtrend has caused a political storm. Saudi Arabia is countering rising Iranian influence by keeping production high and prices low, hitting Tehran and Moscow at the same time – both played a critical role in reducing Saudi influence with Washington with regard to the Middle East situation. Mian sb taking credit at home for forces beyond his control and influence betrays a distance from economic reality that has characterised this government. Earlier it claimed having strengthened forex reserves after receiving an exogenous injection from Riyadh. It also miscalculated the GDP growth figure during the budget, correcting it later for the IMF. In truth, the government has little to brag about on the economic front. Its obsession for mega projects is reflective of what is called a priority deficit. The people’s main problems remain unaddressed – cost of living, power sector problems, inadequate job market, water scarcity, drought and famine in parts, etc. Until the government turns its attention to the country’s real economic problems, it will keep claiming credit for events that come by chance.
