To count or not…

Fear of political fallout, uncertain law and order situation compel govt to think twice before proposing fresh census

Potential threats of political fallout and the dismal law and order situation, in the backdrop of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI’s) anti-government protests, are preventing the government from conducting a fresh population census, despite Prime Minister’s Nawaz Sharif’s keenness to do so, Pakistan Today has reliably learnt.

Talking to Pakistan Today, a senior official of the Ministry of Interprovincial Coordination (IPC) said, “Some political forces in the country do not want the census as they fear that a fresh population count may cost them numerical strength in the parliament, leading to reduced political clout and a narrowed political power base.”

“The government is already under pressure because of the politics of Imran Khan and it does not want to open another Pandora’s box by holding fresh census,” he said.

The conduct of a census is the ninth item in the Federal Legislative List and under Article 51(5), the government is required to perform the census exercise for allocation of seats for national and provincial assemblies.

The last census was conducted in 1998 during the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s government and the current allocation of parliament seats is based on the population count held 16 years back.

The holding of census is also crucial as it provides a basis for allocation of resources to federating units and hence its conduct has been placed under the control of Council of Common Interests (CCI) after the 18th constitutional amendment.

‘WE NEED TO LEARN FROM INDIA’:

“A potential political fallout by conducting fresh census may be averted only if we learn from the Indian experience of freezing the allocation of parliament seats till a certain year,” said the ministry official.

It is pertinent to mention here that the Indian parliament passed the 91st Constitutional Amendment to the Indian constitution in 2001 which bars any delimitation of constituencies based on population count till 2026, which means that the next delimitation in India will be done only after a census in 2031.

Meanwhile, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) Chief Statistician Asif Bajwa told Pakistan Today that his organisation is willing to conduct a census but it requires financial help and security cover by the government, adding that census officials will also have to be insured by the federal and provincial governments.

“We put forward a summary for the conduct of census to the CCI in its last meeting and we are awaiting its decision,” said the head statistician, adding that in case the government decides to hold the census, “the bureau will need around 10 months to make all preparations”.

NO NEED TO GO BY POPULATION:

Talking to Pakistan Today, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Senator Taj Haider said the constitution does not necessitate provincial governments to follow a census-based population count while delimiting constituencies falling under their purview.

He also questioned the reliability of conducting a door-to-door census when authentic data is present with the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA).

“The prevalent law and order situation is not conducive for door-to-door census. We have already seen militant organisations obstructing the house listing exercise held in 2011,” he said.