N loses steam even if he survives

And creates fresh problems for himself

What’s the worst that would have happened if N had accepted the initial call to investigate four constituencies, from the government’s point of view of course? It could have snowballed into a bigger investigation into May ’13, which could have unravelled the government. That explains the ruling party’s back-and-forth during the dharna negotiations. Asad Umar and Shafqat Mahmood would complain to journos that Ahsan Iqbal, etc, would make some promises during talks, but repeatedly go back on some points when written documents were exchanged. Mostly this was about the judicial commission, and whether to set a time limit or leave it open ended.

Little surprise, in hindsight, that the government did not commit, especially after opposition support in the assembly. The elections were not up for discussion before ’18. That was the square PTI would not be allowed to place a piece on. Yet Imran has made it clear that the demand for investigation, and PM’s ouster of course, is going nowhere. So what could N really offer Imran in the run-up to Nov30? Why all the talk of the PM reaching out? It couldn’t be just so he could look big if Imran still stuck with the resignation?

And however irritating the build-up has been, today’s jalsa is the least of N’s problems. Even if it’s just a bigger rerun of Imran’s previous jalsas, with no value-addition, it adds to political weight shifting against the Sharifs. That is where, slowly but steadily, Imran has been winning. He may have fallen well short of the resignation, but he has turned the tide on the Sharifs. He has also triggered what can best be described as politics of protests, which add to N’s problems in no small manner. PAT has taken the election route, and continues with its demonstrations, continuously ridiculing the N-league. PPP, despite support in parliament, was also pushed into the fray, especially in Punjab where it was routed last year. The thinking seems in favour of reinvigorating party fortunes now before more chips fall prey to PTI’s rising fortunes. That, according to some, hastened catapulting Bilawal to the top.

It’s not just the politics that is unsettling. N’s position with the military, too, has turned around completely since last year. The election hangover was fresh, Musharraf was fair game, and there were talks with the Taliban, all rubbing the boots the wrong way

The Jamaat also took to a show of force, presenting its vision democracy and Islamic welfare state, careful not to miss out Munawar Hasan’s controversial viewpoints about jihad, qital, and the Taliban. And then the Q-league went active. Even Gen Musharraf addressed party workers after his change of fortunes. So, even if today passes without incident, which is anything but granted, the Sharifs face political headaches however long they survive. And ironically, the longer they stretch N’s third time as PM, the weaker they get politically, especially at home in Punjab.

It’s not just the politics that is unsettling. N’s position with the military, too, has turned around completely since last year. The election hangover was fresh, Musharraf was fair game, and there were talks with the Taliban, all rubbing the boots the wrong way. There was talk of N promising some concessions if Gen Musharraf would end the hospital drama and come to court, but those promises were not kept. But then the dharnas came, and the hubris went; Zardari was hosted to a 50-course SOS meal, and the sting for the military was gone.

And it’s not as if the foreign front is any less stressful. President Ghani is of a different mould than Karzai, but numerous problems remain with Afghanistan. Long time friend Iran is very angry. After complaining for months they have given up on N addressing their concerns about cross-border militant movement. Even China has warned in clear terms about their militants sheltering and arming in our highlands. And the less said about India, the better.

Yet strangely, except perhaps India, N has himself, and his team, to blame for all these problems. His senior ministers took little time in reverting to their typical aggressive and belligerent attitude as soon as the dharnas fizzled out

Yet strangely, except perhaps India, N has himself, and his team, to blame for all these problems. His senior ministers took little time in reverting to their typical aggressive and belligerent attitude as soon as the dharnas fizzled out. Even PPP distanced itself not long after the assembly support; Aitzaz Ahsan thundering in the Senate that next time he would stand with the opposition. PAT might have toned down more if the Sharifs had not gone back on promises made to Tahirul Qadri as well, and Model Town would not continue to hang over their heads. And the military, of course, would have been less displeased if N had not initiated a revenge trial against Musharraf.

Resultantly, the government is cramped. And since constant struggle for political survival leaves little time for everyday issues like legislation and governance – which N was not much interested in even in the best of times – it makes the road to the next election that much harder.

So while there is no way N will give way on retesting the last election, how he handles today will tell a lot. If Prevaiz Rashid and Kh Saad are any indication, there could well be a confrontation, even if it means playing in to the other party’s hands, again. But the Khawajas have been pretty vocal before – remember the early days of the Musharraf trial? – and toned down when it was needed. But other than the military, the Sharifs have set few precedents of backing down, even if they have mostly shot themselves in the foot. If today is another one of those days, the N-league might create more problems that were missing before.