Is third Intifada inevitable in Middle East?

Wars happen because there’s nothing to prevent them

Just after a brief period of negative peace after Operation Protective Edge, Israel and Palestine are aflame again. The past two weeks have witnessed a number of clashes including an assassination attempt on Rabbi Yehuda Glick, a leader of the movement to reclaim Jerusalem’s Temple Mount from Al-Aqsa mosque; killing of a Palestinian by Israeli police; stabbing and driving attacks claiming the lives of six Israelis; and at least three Palestinian teenagers killed by the Israeli military in the West Bank.

Earlier, during Operation Protective Edge (July-Aug 2014), over 2100 Palestinians were martyred by the Israeli army, which proved to be the worst military confrontation since Israel’s “Cast Lead” offensive in Gaza conducted from December 2008 to January 2009. Operation Cast Lead was launched under the same garb of dismantling Hamas rocket-launching units. The three-week war caused about 1500 Palestinian and just 13 Israeli human losses before Israel announced unilateral ceasefire on January 18, 2009.

Political and security analysts claim that under prevailing situation in the region, the probability of a third Intifada against Israel seems inevitable. The ongoing Israeli occupation of Palestinian areas, its violation of human rights and brutalities especially in Gaza, truly depicts the realist model of anarchic system of international structure where: (1) there is no hierarchical global authority to regulate international affairs; (2) war is necessary evil and basic element in shaping the world politics; and (3) states with “us or them” zero-sum mentality pursue Hobbesian philosophy of coercive power in resolving their disputes.

It is a vicious circle in which both Israel and Palestine are trapped. In order to seek various options for perpetual peace in the region, it’s imperative to review the crisis in its historic perspective

Responding to the international anarchic system both Palestine and Israel are once again back to square one where they were in 1948 – fighting for their survival, endeavouring to tilt balance of power in their favour and curbing violence through violence. The response of the international community is also not surprising as all states tail their own interests.

It is a vicious circle in which both Israel and Palestine are trapped. In order to seek various options for perpetual peace in the region, it’s imperative to review the crisis in its historic perspective.

The ME is the world most troubled region since 1945. In view of its strategic location and rich oil resources, ME has historically been a proxy battleground for western and communist powers. The region possesses a long history of British and French involvement. Egypt had been British colony from 1882 to 1922 before it was accorded semi-independence under Egyptian king and British troops. Under Treaty of Versailles a large area of the region – taken from defeated Turkey – was given to Britain and France.

Although after the Second World War, Arab states gained independence from their colonial masters, the region experienced hardly any peace due to two reasons: firstly, the creation of Israel in the heart of ME; and secondly, the gradual replacement of nationalist governments with pro-western governments.

Setting up of the Jewish state of Israel in Palestinian land by the UK in 1948 is the sole reason of the unending era of brutal violence in ME. Jews claim Palestine as their “national home” arguing that they were driven out of the area by Romans in 71 AD. Over the years there was gradual trickle of Jews returning from exile; however, by end 19^th century there were no enough Jews in Arabia to pose any kind of threat. In 1897 European Jews formed World Zionist Organisation in Basle in Switzerland to promote the cause for their national home. In 1917, British Foreign Minister Arthur Balfour wrote a historic letter to the Zionist organisation – famously known as Balfour Declaration – endorsing British support to Jewish claim. The following years witnessed a large movement of Jews to Palestine causing strong protest by Arab states. In 1922 the British, following the principles of co-existence, pledged to respect the rights of non-Jewish community in Palestine.

The events between 1933 and 1945 proved decisive towards creation of Israel in Palestinian land. Soon after assuming the office of Chancellor of Germany in 1933, Hitler – declaring that “Jews are our misfortune” – resorted to brutal persecution of Jews. The deliberate and systematic annihilation of the entire Jewish population of Europe, a plan Hitler called the “Final Solution”, is commonly referred as “Holocaust” which led to the murder of approximately six million Jews from 1933 to 1945 – representing two-thirds of European and one-third of all world Jewry. The whole situation caused flood of refugees to Palestine. In response to the strong Arab protests, the British colonial master presented two formulae: (1) in 1937, British Peel Commission proposed dividing Palestine into two separate states for Arabs and Jews – it was rejected by the Arabs; and (2) in 1939, they proposed independent Arab state within ten years while limiting the immigration of Jews to 10,000 per year – the plan was, this time, rejected by the Jews.

The influx continued and by 1940 half of the Palestinian population was Jews. The situation was further complicated when one hundred thousand Jews were allowed to migrate in 1945 under US pressure. War-weakened Britain sought UN intervention and in 1947; the UN voted to divide Palestine into Arab and Jews states. However, the British left the area in 1948 without implementing the UN plan which only added fuel to fire. Soon after the withdrawal of British troops Ben Gurion declared independence of the new state of Israel.

Since then peace has only been a distant goal in the ME. The Arabs have fought four wars with Israel, lost about ninety thousand of their population besides thousands of square yards of land, and signed a number of peace accords – Lausanne (1949) to Annapolis (2007) – but could not purchase peace and the Palestinian right to exist. Despite having several things in common i.e., one religion, one language and one enemy, the desire to achieve political and economic unity among Arabs has always been a nightmare.

The Palestinians’ long struggle against Israeli occupation has two facets: (one) the Arabs’ collective wars against Israel as a common enemy; and (two) their indigenous struggle – especially 1^st and 2^nd Intifadas in 1987 and 1993 respectively – when Pan-Arabism met a serious blow in 1973 war.

The ME is the world most troubled region since 1945. In view of its strategic location and rich oil resources, ME has historically been a proxy battleground for western and communist powers

Today both belligerents face another irony. The global landscape has totally changed to intervene – diplomatically or military – in effecting the ceasefire.

The regional realities dictate that no Muslim country is in a position to play its role towards conflict resolution or even diplomatically support Palestinians for their just cause. With Syria and Iraq fighting for the battle of survival against ISIS, Egypt subjected to the power tussle between Muslim Brotherhood and the army, and Iran and Saudi Arabia drowned in proxy war, different countries have different national preferences.

Netanyahu is well aware of the world picture – which favours Israel – and intelligently prepared the narrative in the garb of the kidnapping episode of teenagers. With its ground attack ready, the Israeli war objective seems to be beyond Hamas missile site and Gaza i.e., the entirety of Palestine and subjugation of Palestinians as a minority in the Jewish state of Israel. The systematic capture of Palestinian land by Israel since 1948 does support my fear.

The ultimate sufferers of the whole dilemma are Palestinians only – trapped badly in an asymmetrical war – confronting Israel’s onslaught all alone with international actors watching as mute witnesses.

An honest appraisal of the current situation in Palestine today indeed reveals a number of similarities with the past. Israeli settlement activities and the collapse of the US-led peace talks have not only caused a sense of despair amongst the people of Palestine but has also evaporated their aspirations of an independent state. Further, Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa are again the focus of Palestinian anger as they see Jewish extremists walking around Haram al-Sharif calling for Al-Aqsa’s destruction and construction of the third temple in its place.

In Man, State and War, Kenneth Waltz defines anarchy as a condition of possibility for or “permissive” cause of war, arguing that “wars occur because there is nothing to prevent them.” Though no one can predict as to which event might prove to be the trigging point, however, the overall situation is ripe for Palestinian uprising – the 3rd Intifada.